393
FXUS61 KCAR 300319
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1119 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE TO THE
COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY, APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN
TRACK ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL THEN SLOWLY TRACK
ACROSS EASTERN QUEBEC THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THEN INTO THE
MARITIMES INTO THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
11:18 PM UPDATE...LOWERED CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO ISOLATED,
MAINLY NORTH WHERE ONLY A COUPLE WEAK ECHOES ARE SHOWING UP ON
RADAR. ADJUSTED TEMPS TO REFLECT WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH WHICH HAS MORE HEATING TODAY, AND NOW HAS CLOUDS TO
PREVENT A LOT OF COOLING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES, SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THESE WILL SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING, BRINGING LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS, BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH WILL ADD TO SURFACE INSTABILITY
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SHOWERS WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD, BUT INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE
EVENING, FIRST SUBDUING THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND LATER
DISSIPATING SHOWERS. ON FRIDAY, SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS
THE NORTH AS THE MAIN LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. HOWEVER, THESE
WILL BE MOSTLY DIURNAL IN NATURE AGAIN, WITH BULK OF THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPING LOW ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST.
ACROSS DOWNEAST, CONDITIONS WILL ACTUALLY BECOME INCREASINGLY
STABLE OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PUSHING THE MARINE LAYER ON
SHORE. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND
LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF MARYLAND GOES OUT TO THE
MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT, AND GRADUALLY SLIDES UP TO NEW ENGLAND
ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM BRINGS PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO MAINE,
WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. CLOUDS MOVE IN, LEADING TO YET ANOTHER RAINY, MOSTLY
OVERCAST WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON FRIDAY IN THE 50S
THROUGHOUT MAINE. SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT NOT THINKING TOO MANY BREAKS IN
CLOUDS WILL OCCUR TO FAVOR THIS. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
MAINE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY, BRINGING SOME SOUTHERLY FLOW.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECASTED IN THE HIGH-50S/ LOWER-60S.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND FRONTAL PASSAGE PROVIDING SOME LIFT
HOLDS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT
NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE ON SATURDAY.
BY MIDDAY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GOES INLAND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF MAINE. FROM THIS LOW, SURFACE TROUGH
DEVELOPS OFF OF THE PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SLIDES UP ALONG THE
COAST OF MAINE, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION.
HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED IN THE NORTH, GENERALLY LOOKING AT AN
INCH OF RAIN IN THE NORTH AND WEST, AND HALF AND INCH TO AN
INCH DOWNEAST. LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW-50S. HIGHS
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER-50S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES IN MOVE NORTH INTO CANADA, WITH RAIN
SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SUNDAY NIGHT IN TO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. BY MONDAY NIGHT, LOW BECOMES STATIONARY IN CANADA AND
FINALLY MOVES EAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING
TO FIGURE OUT WEDNESDAY ONWARDS. THE EURO HAS A MUCH SLOWER LOW
SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT, WITH A LOW FORMING OFF THE NJ COAST ON
FRIDAY. THE GFS, HOWEVER, HAS A WEAK SURFACE LOW FORM OFF OF
MASSACHUSETTS AND SLIGHT UP THE MAINE COAST. THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN AT THE END OF THE WEEK. THE EURO
HAS MORE RAIN FALLING IN NORTHWESTERN MAINE, AND THE GFS HAS
MORE RAIN FALLING IN CENTRAL MAINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
IN THE 70S NEXT WEEK, AND LOWS IN THE 40S/50S.
AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
NEAR TERM:
NORTHERN TERMINALS: VFR TO GET STARTED. AT KFVE LOOKS LIKE MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE. AT KPQI/KCAR/KHUL,
THEY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THIS POINT IT
APPEARS IFR SHOULD BE LIMITED MOST LIKELY TO KHUL DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS, AND THERE THE CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND MIDDAY. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT ALL BUT KFVE THIS EVENING, WHERE THEY
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE S-SSW AT UNDER 10KT. WINDS BECOME OUT OF
THE SSW-SW AT 10KT OR LESS BY AROUND MID-MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS
TO AROUND 15-20KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AT ALL BUT KHUL.
SOUTHERN TERMINALS: VFR TO GET STARTED, WITH IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING THIS EVENING AT KBHB AND AROUND MIDNIGHT AT KBGR.
LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE AT KBHB OVERNIGHT, MORE
CONFIDENT ABOUT LOW CLOUDS THAN VISIBILITIES, SO FOR NOW KEPT
VISIBILITIES AT KBHB AT IFR. ALSO CONFIDENCE IN 100 FT CEILINGS
IS AT KBHB IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR THEN VFR AT BOTH KBGR AND
KBHB IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS EVENING, THEN OUT OF THE S-SSW AT 10KT OR LESS BY
MID MORNING. KBHB COULD SEE WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10G20KT IN
THE AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM:
FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS, CANNOT RULE OUT MVFR IN
PATCHY FOG LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS FROM THE S/SW AT 5-10
KTS, BECOMING E BY DAYBREAK.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN, LOCALLY
HEAVY AT TIMES. POTENTIAL FOR SOME GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. LLWS POSSIBLE. WINDS FROM THE E/SE AT 5-10KTS,
BECOMING SW SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN, LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES.
WINDS FROM THE SW 5-15KTS. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO RAIN SHOWERS.
WINDS FROM THE SW AT 5-10 KTS, SHIFTING TO THE W BY TUESDAY,
MONDAY NIGHT – TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AS RAIN CLEARED OUT.
WINDS FROM THE W/SW AT 5-10KTS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. ON FRIDAY, SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL
INCREASE AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET.
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA,
BEFORE JUMPING TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. OUTER
WATERS COULD SEE SEAS AS HIGH AT 8FT ON SUNDAY. RAIN BEGINNING
FRIDAY NIGHT AND STAYS AROUND UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING. POTENTIAL
FOR SOME FOG OVER THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS FROM THE
S/SW AT 5-10KTS. WINDS GUSTS ARE PRETTY MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA ON SATURDAY, BUT GET UP TO 25KTS BY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER/LF/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...BRENNAN
LONG TERM...BRENNAN
AVIATION...BLOOMER/LF/MALOIT/BRENNAN
MARINE...BLOOMER/LF/MALOIT/BRENNAN
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