837
FXUS61 KCAR 301414
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1014 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THIS
EVENING, TRACK NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
TONIGHT, THEN CONTINUE NORTH ACROSS WESTERN MAINE ON SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTH THROUGH QUEBEC SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
10:15 AM UPDATE...MOSTLY CLOUDY, WITH A LITTLE CLEARING OUT IN
THE DOWNEAST REGION. FOG STILL PRESENT ALONG THE COAST AND OVER
THE WATERS, BUT VISIBILITY IS BEGINNING TO IMPROVE. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT NOT CONFIDENT IN THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TODAY. UPDATED TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS TO MATCH OBSERVATIONS. PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, BETWEEN
A NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGGING SOUTH FROM
WESTERN QUEBEC, AND A SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. HUMID AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
PULL NORTH BENEATH WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH. THE MOIST
AIR WORKING WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS, MAINLY OVER THE
NORTH. MEANWHILE, LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG WILL PUSH INLAND FROM
THE COAST AS A MOIST MARINE LAYER SPREADS NORTH. THE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS MAY MIX OUT A BIT FOR SOME BREAKS THROUGH MIDDAY BUT
THEN WORK BACK IN OVERNIGHT.
THE NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH WILL CONTINUE PLUNGING SOUTH TONIGHT,
DIVING INTO THE SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH AND PHASING WITH IT. THIS
WILL SUPPORT LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION THIS EVENING AND INTENSIFYING LATER TONIGHT AS IT LIFTS
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TONIGHT WILL BECOME CLOUDY
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
SPREADING NORTH AND RAIN WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE INTO THE AREA
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH VERY LATE TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
IS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
H5 S/WV CURRENTLY SPINNING THRU THE MIDWEST WILL EJECT THRU THE OH
VALLEY TODAY AND INDUCE SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE APPALACHIANS
THIS AFTERNOON. BY 12Z SATURDAY, SFC LOW WILL HAVE MOVED TWD
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND DEEPENED DUE TO CYCLONIC VORTICITY
ADVECTION FROM UPR LEVEL JET. RAIN WILL BE BLOSSOMING AFTER 12Z WITH
MOST OF THE CWA SEEING RAIN BY MID MORNING. ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT WITH A SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS ALONG THE COAST IN THE
MORNING BEFORE SPREADING NORTH THRU THE DAY. CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY STORMS AS PW VALUES WILL BE APPROACHING 1.30
INCHES DURING THE DAY. A QUICK 0.50-0.75 INCHES LOOK TO BE LIKELY ON
SATURDAY OVER WIDESPREAD AREAS, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
APPROACHING ONE INCH IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC
LIFE. WITH CLOUDY AND RAINY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN IN THE 60S AND POSSIBLY IN THE 50S OVER DOWNEAST UNDER STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW.
SFC LOW MOVES TO THE NORTH SATURDAY EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR DRY
SLOT TO WORK THRU THE AREA, LEAVING DRIZZLE BEHIND. GIVEN THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES OF LOWER AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AM HESITANT TO DROP
POPS FOR SATURDAY EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY
SHOWERS FOR ALL AREAS. SEVERAL S/WVS FUJIWHARA AROUND EACH OTHER
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THESE WILL DETERMINE WHERE AND WHEN RAIN FALLS AS
AIRMASS REMAINS EXTREMELY MOIST AND HUMID.
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS WELL DUE TO UPPER LOW REMAINING
JUST TO OUR NORTH AND CONTINUALLY FLINGING SHORTWAVES AT CWA. TEMPS
WILL RUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS WITH LOW 50S EXPECTED
OVER THE NORTHWEST AND UPR 50S ELSEWHERE.
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS CONTINUE BUT WILL BE ON THE DECREASE SUNDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER, UPR TROF WILL REMAIN BACK TO OUR WEST THRU THE END
OF THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
H5 TROF WILL BE MOVING THRU EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH SHOWERS
ENDING MONDAY NIGHT. MED RANGE GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON UPR LEVEL
PATTERN WITH 00Z GFS BUILDING UPR RIDGE OF OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
AND CWA ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE, CONDUCIVE TO
POTENTIAL RIDGE RIDERS TOPPING THE RIDGE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
MEANWHILE THE 00Z EC CLOSES H5 LOW OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
WITH RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE CWA AND KEEPING RAIN AT BAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE LOW OPENS UP AND EJECTS
OVER THE NORTHEAST. 00Z CMC IS A CONGLOMERATION OF THE TWO AS
UPR RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND UPR LOW CLOSES
OFF TO THE NORTH OF BERMUDA. DUE TO SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY HAVE
FOLLOWED NBM WITH SHOWERS AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY WILL
LOWER TO IFR TONIGHT IN LOWER CLOUDS AND SOME FOG. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH, POSSIBLY RETURNING TO
MVFR OR VFR FOR A WHILE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING BACK TO
IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT. WINDS LIGHT S TO SW TODAY
THEN VERY LIGHT S TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM:
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. RAIN MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY. LLWS
POSSIBLE. SE 5-15KTS BECOMING SSW SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. SW 5-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS. SW 5-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO
20KTS.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. LIGHT SW MONDAY NIGHT BECOMING W 5-10KTS
TUESDAY.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WIND WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY. SEAS WILL BUILD UP
TO 4 FT TODAY AND REMAIN 4 FT TONIGHT. HUMID AIR OVER THE
WATERS WILL RESULT IN FOG LIMITING VISIBILITY THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: SEAS WILL BE INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON THE OUTER
WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND OVER ALL WATERS SATURDAY EVENING. SE
WINDS WILL BE AT MARGINAL LEVELS ON SATURDAY WITH STABLE LAYER OVER
THE WATERS. SEAS WILL CLIMB TO BETWEEN 7-10 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS LIKELY TO REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE OUTER WATERS
MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. AREAS OF FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER/BRENNAN
SHORT TERM...BUSTER
LONG TERM...BUSTER
AVIATION...BLOOMER/BRENNAN/BUSTER
MARINE...BLOOMER/BRENNAN/BUSTER
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