349
FXUS61 KCAR 302001
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
401 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THIS
EVENING, TRACK NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT,
THEN CONTINUE NORTH ACROSS WESTERN MAINE ON SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
TONIGHT, A GENERAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARDS
MAINE. PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MAINE THIS EVENING AS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED A LITTLE LIGHTNING IN CANADA,
BUT CONDITIONS OVER MAINE DO NOT LOOK TOO FAVORABLE FOR THUNDER
THIS EVENING BASED ON HOW SHALLOW THESE STORMS ARE. CAPE IS
VERY MINIMAL, SHEAR IS LOW, AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS WEAK,
BUT WILL NOT RULE THUNDER OUT COMPLETELY. SKIES STAY MOSTLY
CLOUDY TONIGHT, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID-50S THROUGHOUT
THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT, LOW SYSTEM TO THE NORTH IN CANADA MEETS WITH A
COASTAL LOW, COMBINING AND STRENGTHENING AS IT BECOMES
VERTICALLY STACKED OVER MAINE BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
BRINGS PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST REGION, WITH SOME
RAIN SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. CLOUDS
PERSIST, LEADING TO YET ANOTHER RAINY, MOSTLY OVERCAST WEEKEND.
SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING, PRIMARILY ALONG COASTAL AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECASTED IN THE HIGH-50S/ LOWER-60S. ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE PROVIDE SOME LIFT, WHICH GIVES US A POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT NORTHERN AND EASTERN
MAINE TOMORROW. BY MIDDAY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM GOES INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF MAINE. HEAVIEST
RAINFALL EXPECTED IN THE NORTH AND WESTERN AREAS, WITH AN INCH
OF RAIN IN THE NORTH AND WEST, AND HALF AND INCH TO AN INCH
DOWNEAST. LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW-50S. LOW SYSTEM
SWINGS A JET UP ALONG THE COASTLINE, CAUSING SOME GUSTY WINDS
OVER THE WATERS AND DOWNEAST COAST TOMORROW.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY, MAINTAINING THE UNSETTLED PATTERN. THE OCCLUDED
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARDS SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH THE
CENTER OF THE LOW PASSING NORTH OF THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER AS IT
BEGINS TO TRAVERSE EASTWARD INTO NEW BRUNSWICK NORTH OF THE CWA.
MEANWHILE, SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THIS OCCLUSION,
PERSISTING THE THREAT FOR RAIN, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH,
WELL INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE THE DOWNEAST REGION MAY
BEGIN TO DRY OUT THANKS TO THE DRY SLOT OF THE OCCLUSION AND AS
THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL AWAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE WILL AID IN KEEPING
TEMPERATURES MILD BEHIND THE OCCLUSION, WITH LOWS EACH NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY INTO THE LOWER
60S. BY MONDAY, THE LOW WILL HAVE PULLED FURTHER AWAY INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES, AND PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST WINDS COMBINED WITH
CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO LIFT INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 60S ACROSS BANGOR AND THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION ON
MONDAY, WHILE THE NORTH REMAINS MORE CLOUDY AND HIGHS LIFT INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S THERE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN TO SOAR ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH
WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY REACHING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY
CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM, BUT DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THE DRY AIR BECOMES OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA, THIS CLOUD COVER COULD ENCROACH MORE SLOWLY,
ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO MORE READILY LIFT INTO THE MID 80S.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE AREA WILL BE AN OPEN WAVE,
THOUGH THE TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IT
CROSSES ANYWHERE BETWEEN THURSDAY MIDDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
LONGER THIS SYSTEM TAKES TO REACH OUR AREA, THE MORE TIME IT HAS
TO EVOLVE AND BEGIN TO OCCLUDE, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO A DEEPER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENHANCING RAINFALL OVER THE AREA HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND. A QUICKER MOVING OPEN WAVE COULD LEAD TO LESS
OVERALL RAINFALL FOR THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
NEAR TERM:
KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL: VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS, WHICH WILL LOWER TO
IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT FROM DROPPING CEILINGS AND POTENTIALLY
SOME FOG. RAIN BEGINS AS SHOWERS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, BEFORE
GETTING HEAVIER BY AFTERNOON. COULD BE SOME PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS WELL. LLWS TOMORROW. WINDS
FROM THE S/SW THIS EVENING, BECOMING SW BY TOMORROW. FEW
SPORADIC GUSTS UP 20KT POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN TERMINALS.
KBGR/KBHB: VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS, WHICH WILL LOWER TO
IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT FROM DROPPING CEILINGS AND POTENTIALLY
SOME FOG. RAIN BEGINS AS SHOWERS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, BEFORE
GETTING HEAVIER BY AFTERNOON. COULD BE SOME PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS WELL. LLWS TOMORROW. WINDS FROM THE S/SW
THIS EVENING, BECOMING SW BY TOMORROW.
SHORT TERM:
SAT NIGHT: MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. RAIN MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY. LLWS
POSSIBLE. S WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS.
SUN...MVFR, POSSIBLE IFR IN RAIN SHOWERS. WINDS SW 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS.
SUN NIGHT - MON...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS, IMPROVING TOWARDS VFR
DURING THE DAY ON MON. WINDS SW 5 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
20 KTS.
MON NIGHT - WED: VFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. LIGHT SW WINDS,
INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 KTS ON WED.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THIS EVENING, BEFORE RISING TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TOMORROW.
OUTER WATERS COULD SEE SEAS AS HIGH AT 8FT DURING THE DAYTIME.
RAIN BEGINS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND STAYS AROUND UNTIL SUNDAY
EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG OVER THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS FROM THE S/SW AT 5-10KTS,
BECOMING SE BY SATURDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS 15-20 KTS, AND GUSTS UP
TO 30 KT POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM: SEAS 6 TO 9 FT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, AND SLOWLY BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY, BECOMING 4 TO 7 FT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY UNDER PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
SWELL. WINDS THROUGH THIS TIME MAY GUST 20 TO 30 KTS. AREAS OF
FOG MAY LIMIT VISIBILITY SATURDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
FINALLY BEGIN TO SETTLE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 2 PM EDT SUNDAY
FOR ANZ050>052.
NEAR TERM...BRENNAN
SHORT TERM...ASTRAUSER
LONG TERM...ASTRAUSER
AVIATION...BRENNAN/ASTRAUSER
MARINE...BRENNAN/ASTRAUSER
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