369
FXUS61 KCAR 251502
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1102 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT, THEN EXITS TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT, SLOWLY CROSSES THE GULF
OF MAINE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN EXITS ACROSS THE
MARITIMES SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY EXITING ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
TODAY. ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS, EXPECT A PARTLY SUNNY MORNING THEN
A MOSTLY/PARTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S NORTH, TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
DOWNEAST. DEWPOINTS WILL FALL IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
HAVE UPDATED TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
EXPECTED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND CLOUDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOOKING
FOR A CHILLY NIGHT, BUT ONE CHALLENGE WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF HIGH
CLOUDS AND HOW MUCH THESE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING.
EXPECTING MOST OF THE HIGH CLOUDS TO BE IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN
AREAS. THINK THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE A SMALL IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES, WHICH STILL ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO
MID 40S IN THE NORTH, AND LOW TO MID 50S DOWNEAST.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER WNW-NW FLOW ALOFT ON THURSDAY, AND WITH
NO SHORTWAVES PROGGED TO BE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW IT SHOULD BE
DRY WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER. HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE AROUND
5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT THEN EXITS TO THE
EAST ON FRIDAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY
WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. NOTE THAT
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAST THE RIDGE AXIS EXITS, WITH
THE MOST PROGRESSIVE MODELS (DEFINITELY A MINORITY INCLUDING
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS) BRINGING IN SOME SHOWERS TO FAR SW ZONE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MAINLY IN THE LOW LEVELS
APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE UP TO
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.
THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY FOR SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AS WELL MAINLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND DOWNEAST. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT
ANY STORMS SHOULD STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
THE MODELS THEN DIFFER OVER WHAT SHOULD HAPPEN MONDAY-TUESDAY,
WITH MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGESTING THAT NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES SHOULD CROSS THE REGION. A SMALLER NUMBER OF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS BRING IN DEEP LAYERED RIDGING MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT WITH
THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH HOLDING OFF UNTIL TUESDAY. FOR NOW
FAVOR THE FORMER SOLUTION, CONSISTENT WITH THE NBM.
HIGHS SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN BE ABOVE NORMAL
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS TODAY, EXCEPT BECOMING
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM:
THURSDAY-FRIDAY. VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT..VFR WITH A LOW END CHANCE OF MVFR OVER SW ZONES
LATE.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. SE WINDS G15-20KT
POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: WINDS SHOULD BE 10 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SCA LEVEL SEAS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. ALL
WATERS SHOULD SEE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY.
CLIMATE
NEAR RECORD HIGHS OCCURRED YESTERDAY, JUNE 24, WITH A COUPLE
RECORDS BROKEN:
SITE HIGH TEMP PREV RECORD
CARIBOU 90 93 (1995)
HOULTON 92 92 (1995)
MILLINOCKET 94 97 (1912)
BANGOR 98 93 (1995)
THE 98 IN BANGOR ALSO TIED AN ALL-TIME JUNE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/FOISY
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MALOIT
MARINE...NORCROSS/MALOIT
CLIMATE...
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