650
FXUS61 KCAR 260452
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1252 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN EXIT TO THE EAST FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT, CROSSES THE GULF OF
MAINE SATURDAY THEN EXITS ACROSS THE MARITIMES SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
1245PM UPDATE...
COOL NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. MOST AREAS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
DECOUPLE/COOL OFF, BUT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO
BUILD IN, KEPT WITH EXISTING LOW TEMPERATURES AND GOING FOR A
LATE FALL IN TEMPS TOWARD DAWN AS WINDS SLACKEN.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN RIDGED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY, THEN A MOSTLY/PARTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM AROUND 40 TO THE
LOWER 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER, LOCALIZED UPPER 30S
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORMALLY COLDEST NORTHWEST VALLEY
LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES DOWNEAST WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
TO MID 50S. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70
TO THE LOWER 70S NORTH, TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S DOWNEAST.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH TOWARDS
THE AREA. AN INITIAL WAVE OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL
REACH THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT IT WILL BE MISALIGNED WITH
MOISTURE, CAUSING MOST OF THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY. BY FRIDAY
NIGHT PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE LIKELY, MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR NORTH
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION REACH, AND HOW HEAVY, REMAIN. USING A
NON-NAM CONSENSUS, A SWATH OF AROUND 1 INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM MOOSEHEAD THROUGH BANGOR AND BAR HARBOR BY SATURDAY. LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER FAR NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY, AND SKIES MAY EVEN BEGIN TO CLEAR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN SOME OF THE MORE OPTIMISTIC SCENARIOS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S, COOLEST
THURSDAY NIGHT. A RAW MODEL BLEND WAS PREFERRED OVER THE NBM FOR
HIGHS ON SATURDAY TO REMOVE BIAS CORRECTION, PARTICULARLY OVER
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE PRECIPITATION MAY BE
MODERATE TO HEAVY AND INSOLATION WILL BE LIMITED, KEEPING
TEMPERATURES COOLER IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
STEADY RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
DIMINISH TO SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS, PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES, AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS AN AREA OF
ELEVATED MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS SLOW TO CLEAR OUT. WEAK RIDGING
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE AVERAGE
AS HIGHS REACH THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF
THE RIDGE MOVING EASTWARD, AN AFTERNOON SHOWER IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS. BY TUESDAY, A SHORTWAVE AND COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA. TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES
AMONG GUIDANCE LEND TO SOME UNCERTAINTY, BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
EXISTS TO KEEP LIKELY NBM POPS, ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO
MONDAY, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY. LINGERING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING SHOULD SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS
WELL, ALTHOUGH ENSEMBLES SUGGEST ONLY SLIGHT ADVECTION OF COOLER
AND DRIER AIR, WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 FAVORED.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. N/NW WINDS AROUND 5
KTS. GENERALLY N/NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS THURSDAY, THOUGH BHB
SHOULD SEE A SHIFT TO S/SW AROUND 10 KTS BEHIND A SEA BREEZE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM:
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: VFR AT AROOSTOOK COUNTY AIRPORTS WITH
A SMALL CHANCE (20 PERCENT) OF MVFR. MVFR LIKELY DEVELOPING
ELSEWHERE IN -RA, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES FURTHER SW AT BGR
AND BHB. SE WINDS 5-10 KTS.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: VFR. CHANCE (30 PERCENT) OF MVFR
CEILINGS, MAINLY AT SOUTHERN AIRPORTS. S WINDS 5-10 KTS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. A SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A PERIOD AROUND 8 SECONDS WILL CAUSE WAVE
HEIGHTS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 5 FEET OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...FOISY/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MSTRAUSER
LONG TERM...MSTRAUSER
AVIATION...FOISY/NORCROSS/MSTRAUSER
MARINE...FOISY/NORCROSS/MSTRAUSER
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