205
FXUS61 KCAR 270030
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
830 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY,
CROSSES MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN EXITS ACROSS THE MARITIMES
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
8 PM UPDATE: SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS SHIFT SOUTH OFF THE COAST. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE AND
DEWPOINT BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS RIDGED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE REGION
EARLY TONIGHT WITH DECREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE WAKE
OF THE DISTURBANCE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL THEN OCCUR
OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO
DRAW A WARM FRONT TOWARD THE REGION LATER FRIDAY. AFTER A MOSTLY
SUNNY MORNING, CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM AROUND 40 TO THE
LOWER 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER, LOCALIZED UPPER 30S
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORMALLY COLDEST NORTHWEST VALLEY
LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES DOWNEAST WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S NORTH, TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S
DOWNEAST.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
CLOUDS INCREASE FRIDAY EVENING IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SAME TIME, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE
SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND THESE
SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (1.0
TO 2.0 INCHES) ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP FRIDAY EVENING, WITH THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHERE THE BEST
LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED IN ADVANCE OF THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT.
SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE AN UNSEASONABLY COOL, CLOUDY, AND
DAMP DAY. THE BEST LIFT/FOCUS FOR RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MAINE HIGHLANDS AND DOWNEAST AREAS, IN THE
VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY, WITH LESSER CHANCES FURTHER NORTH.
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY, AND
FROM ONE-INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF PISCATAQUIS COUNTY IN THE FAVORED UPSLOPE
REGIONS. UNSETTLED AND DAMP WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE, AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY UNTIL THE 500 MB SHORT
WAVE MOVES EAST.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
RIDGING BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, WITH A DRYING TREND
EXPECTED. IT WILL BECOME A BIT MORE HUMID. ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
CROSSES THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK RIDGE
BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY, BEFORE THE
NEXT SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION BY THURSDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE NEAR TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, SHIFTING SOUTH
AT BGR/BHB FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM:
FRI NIGHT...VFR TO THE N OF KHUL, BUT BECOMING MVFR OR LOWER
ELSEWHERE. CHANCE OF RAIN. SE TO S WIND 10 TO 15 KT.
SAT THROUGH SUN...MVFR/IFR. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN IFR AT
KHUL/KBGR/KBHB. RAIN. S TO SW WIND. LLWS POSSIBLE SAT THROUGH SAT
NIGHT.
SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT CHANCE MVFR IN ANY
SHOWERS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM: SEAS COULD APPROACH SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM
IN RAIN AND PATCHY FOG FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...ASTRAUSER/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...TWD
LONG TERM...TWD
AVIATION...ASTRAUSER/NORCROSS/TWD
MARINE...ASTRAUSER/NORCROSS/TWD
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