160
FXUS61 KCAR 280236
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1036 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN MOVES
EAST LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT
AND THEN MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION AND LATER TUESDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM APPROACHES WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
10 PM UPDATE: UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO THICKEN AND
LOWER, WITH RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AT THIS TIME. THAT
SAID, THE 00Z CAR SOUNDING INDICATED PLENTY OF LOW AND MID LEVEL
DRY AIR THAT WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME BEFORE PRECIP MAKES IT TO
THE SURFACE, SO TIMING IS STILL ON TRACK FOR RAIN TO HOLD OFF
FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS
LARGELY ON TRACK, THOUGH LOW TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED SLIGHTLY
BASED ON HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS MOVED IN AND MODERATED THE TEMPS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST, OUT INTO THE
OPEN WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC, TO THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING.
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN THE APPROACHING LOW AND THE HIGH TO THE EAST. SOME LIGHT
RAIN BEGINS TO MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN
WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES ON SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE RAINFALL
FORECAST ACROSS THE FAR NORTH, ESPECIALLY THE ST. JOHN VALLEY,
WHERE THE RAIN COULD BE MORE SPOTTY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THE CLOUDS, SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RAIN, WILL RESULT IN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON'S HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE REGION.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
SYSTEM WILL BE OCCLUDING SATURDAY EVENING WITH ISOLATED THUNDER OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT WHILE HEAVIEST RAIN
LOOKS TO BE OVER SRN AND EASTERN ZONES. TRIPLE POINT LOOKS TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COAST WITH PATCHY FOG PRESENT OVER
DOWNEAST. HOW QUICKLY DRY AIR MOVES IN BEHIND BOUNDARY/SFC LOW WILL
ULTIMATELY DETERMINE HOW QUICKLY MOISTURE WORKS EAST.
LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH AND EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE COMING TO AN END IN THE EVENING. GIVEN THE LINGERING MOISTURE
AND CLOUD COVER TEMPS LOOKS TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE M60S OVER THE NORTH AND LWR 70S IN THE SOUTH.
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED. MINIMAL COLD ADVECTION LIKELY SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH TEMPS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 50S AT ALL LOCATIONS. SUNNY
SKIES AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ON MONDAY WILL RESULT IN TEMPS CLIMBING
BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL, AROUND 80F OVER THE NORTH AND IN THE LOWER 80S
FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST. ONSHORE FLOW KEEPS THE COAST AND OUTER
ISLANDS ON THE COOL SIDE, ONLY IN THE 60S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
RIDGE WILL BE BREAKING DOWN MONDAY NIGHT WITH CHC FOR SHOWERS ACRS
THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FOG OVER SOUTHERN AREAS
MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AFFECTING AREAS TO THE NORTH OF KATAHDIN.
BY TUESDAY MORNING COLD FRONT WILL BE ON OUR DOORSTEP AND WITH
INSTABILITY INCREASING AS PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 2.00 INCHES,
CANNOT RULE OUT CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR APPROACHING 40KTS CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ON
TUESDAY.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BUT SECONDARY FRONT LOOKS TO
BRING CHILLIER AIR IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. BERMUDA HIGH LOOKS TO
BREAK DOWN LEADING TO UPPER TROF KEEPING S/WVS TRACKING OVER THE
AREA WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OFF AND ON THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
NEAR TERM:
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH VFR CIGS
GRADUALLY LOWERING AND BECOMING MVFR INTO THE MORNING ON
SATURDAY, THEN HEADING TOWARDS IFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN TO
MOVE IN OVER NORTHERN TERMINALS BY AROUND 06Z TONIGHT, AND THE
REST OF THE AREA BY 12Z. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMING SE ON
SATURDAY AT 5 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS.
SHORT TERM:
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN AND FOG, MAINLY FOR
HUL, BGR AND BHB. SE 5-10KTS SATURDAY NIGHT BECOMING N SUNDAY
EVENING.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. IFR FOG POSSIBLE OVER DOWNEAST
TERMINALS AND VALLEY TERMINALS MONDAY MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT
MVFR IN TSTMS NRN AROOSTOOK TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT W
WINDS BECOMING SW 5-10KTS.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR IN TSTMS MONDAY EVENING AND
TUESDAY. SSW 5KTS BECOMING 5-15KTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY..VFR/MVFR. SW 5-10KTS BECOMING W
5-15KTS GUSTING TO 20KTS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH
SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE MARGINAL SATURDAY NIGHT THEN
DIMINISHING ON SUNDAY. WATERS WILL BE HEADLINE-FREE THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TOWARD MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...ASTRAUSER/TWD
SHORT TERM...BUSTER
LONG TERM...BUSTER
AVIATION...ASTRAUSER/TWD/BUSTER
MARINE...ASTRAUSER/TWD/BUSTER
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