935
FXUS61 KCAR 281355
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
955 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH TODAY...CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN
CONTINUE INTO THE MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT AND CROSS
THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
UPDATE...
LOWERED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE FAR NORTH TODAY, ESPECIALLY THE
ST. JOHN VALLEY, PER LATEST TRENDS AND RADAR IMAGERY. RAIN IS
STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT THIS FAR NORTH THIS MORNING, AS DRIER AIR
IS NOT TOO FAR AWAY TO THE NORTH, ACROSS THE GASPE PENINSULA.
OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL,
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM ONTARIO INTO WESTERN QUEBEC TODAY WILL
PULL MOISTURE NORTH OVER THE RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIR OVER
OUR REGION PRODUCING RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL
FALL FROM THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS EAST, SOUTHEAST INTO THE DOWNEAST
REGION WHERE OVER AN INCH MAY FALL. A RIDGE AXES OF HIGH PRESSURE,
BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT, WILL BE NEARBY TO OUR NORTHEAST. THIS WILL
LIMIT AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST TO AROUND A QUARTER TO A HALF
INCH. MOST OF THE RAIN IS LIKELY TO OCCUR THROUGH EARLY TO MID
MORNING AS THE INITIAL PUSH OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE OCCURS ACROSS
THE REGION. RAIN WILL THEN GET A BIT MORE INTERMITTENT THROUGH
MIDDAY AND THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE IN A FEW SOUTHERN AREAS SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN TAPERING OFF TO
SHOWERS AS THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENS AND CROSSES THE AREA. MOST OF THE
SUPPORT FOR SOME OVERRUNNING RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTH WITH A DRY INTRUSION PUSHING INTO THE SOUTH. TRANQUIL AIR AND
MOIST GROUND OVER THE SOUTH MAY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG LATE
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ON SUNDAY, OCCLUDING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC, AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AS
LOW MOVES OUT TO SEA, RAIN SHOWERS BEGIN TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE
STATE, ENDING BY SUNDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY LOOKING A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ON SUNDAY, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID-60S IN
THE NORTH, AND MID-70S IN THE PENOBSCOT BANGOR REGION. OVERNIGHT
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID-50S THROUGHOUT NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MAINE. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, LIGHT WINDS, AND SURFACE
INVERSION INDICATE THAT SOME FOG COULD OCCUR IN VALLEYS AND
COASTAL AREAS.
ON MONDAY, RIDGING CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER MAINE, BRINGING A
BRIEF PERIOD OF CALM AND DRY CONDITIONS. SKIES STAY MOSTLY
OVERCAST, BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION BRINGS DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE
LOW-TO-MID 80S THROUGHOUT MAINE. MONDAY NIGHT, LOW PRESSURE TO
THE NORTHWEST MOVES NORTH, BRINGING ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. COLD AIR PUSHES AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM
FRONT, SO OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S. PLENTY OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVING IN, BRING CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS FROM THE NORTHWEST DOWN THE THE SOUTHEAST BY DAYBREAK ON
TUESDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN, CAUSING SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ON TUESDAY, LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST MOVES
NORTHEAST, AS THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND. MAINE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THIS TIME,
HELPING RAISE TEMPERATURES BACK UP INTO THE HIGH 70S AND MID
80S. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD CAUSE SOME GUSTY WINDS
DURING THE DAY. WITH THIS SYSTEM, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SEVERE WEATHER IF CONVECTION IS ABLE TO FIRE OFF. FAVORABLE
CAPE, CIN, SHEAR, AND HELICITY ARE AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. IF A CELL DOES GROW, SHEAR AND MUCAPE VALUES ARE
FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SMALL HAIL, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AT THIS TIME. WORKING AGAINST CONVECTION, HOWEVER, IS
SOME PRETTY LACK-LUSTER LAPSE RATES. SINCE MOST OF THE
INSTABILITY IS ELEVATED, SOME LIFTING MECHANISM WOULD BE NEEDED
IN ORDER TO SUPPORT PARCEL LIFTING. THIS COULD DEPEND THEN ON
THE SPEED OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT, OR IF THE SURFACE TROUGH
THAT MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN THE TWO FRONTS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO GET THINGS MOVING.
LATER THIS WEEK, A SURFACE TROUGH BEHIND THE LOW MOVES THROUGH
ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE IN CANADA MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST. GENERALLY HIGHS IN
THE 70S/80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S/60S. CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOOKING
AT ANOTHER WET WET WEEKEND WITH SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INCOMING LOW SYSTEM.
AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING
THEN IFR LATER THIS MORNING IN LOW CLOUDS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH TONIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME FOG WITH OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDITIONS. WINDS LIGHT SE TODAY
AND TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM:
SUNDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO RAIN. FOG POSSIBLE
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR SOUTHERN TERMINALS, REDUCING
TERMINALS TO IFR. WINDS FROM THE SE AT 5-10KTS.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. IFR FOG POSSIBLE
OVER DOWNEAST TERMINALS MONDAY MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS MOVER IN ON
MONDAY FROM NW TO SE BY NIGHTTIME. LIGHT W WINDS BECOMING S BY
MONDAY EVENING, AT 5-10KTS.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY. ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IN
VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS. WINDS FROM THE S AT 5KTS, BECOMING SW
AT 5-10KTS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KTS, ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY..VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AS RAIN SHOWERS
SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF MAINE. WINDS FROM THE SW AT 5-10KTS, GUSTING
UP TO 20KTS, BECOMING W WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY – WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS. A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS FROM THE W AT 5-10 KTS, GUSTS 20-25KT POSSIBLE,
BECOMING SW OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
NEAR TERM:
WIND AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA TODAY AND TONIGHT. MOIST AIR
MOVING IN OVER THE WATERS MAY RESULT IN SOME FOG AND MIST
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THIS WEEKEND. POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFTING COUNTERCLOCKWISE
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY, AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE
AREA. GENERALLY WINDS FROM THE W AT 5-10 KTS BY SUNDAY EVENING.
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERNIGHT FOG SUNDAY NIGHT, AND MONDAY
NIGHT.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER/TWD
SHORT TERM...BRENNAN
LONG TERM...BRENNAN
AVIATION...BLOOMER/TWD/BRENNAN
MARINE...BLOOMER/TWD/BRENNAN
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