063  
FXUS61 KCAR 290722  
AFDCAR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME  
322 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING THEN CONTINUE  
INTO THE MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF  
THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH MONDAY  
NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR  
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH BROUGHT SOME RAIN TO THE AREA OVER THE  
WEEKEND WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES EARLY THIS  
MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY TO MID  
MORNING WITH SOME SHOWERS, MOSTLY OVER THE NORTH, SUPPORTED BY  
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LOTS OF MOISTURE LINGERING IN THE LOW  
LEVELS. THIS TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES LATER THIS  
MORNING. FLOW IS VERY WEAK AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER MUCH OF THE  
DAY. HOWEVER, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND THE MIXING OF SOLAR HEATING  
SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO BREAK UP THE LOW CLOUDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO  
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE DAY WILL END PARTLY SUNNY OVER THE  
SOUTHWEST, AND STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT WITH SOME BREAKS OF BLUE SKY  
OVER THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
TONIGHT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND TRANQUIL AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE  
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN. THE CALM AIR OVER DAMP GROUND WILL LIKELY  
RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
ON MONDAY, RIDGING CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER MAINE, BRINGING A  
BRIEF PERIOD OF CALM AND DRY CONDITIONS. SKIES STAY MOSTLY  
OVERCAST, BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION, ESPECIALLY AT 850HPA, BRINGS  
DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 80S THROUGHOUT MAINE. MONDAY  
NIGHT, LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST MOVES NORTH, BRINGING  
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. COLD AIR AHEAD OF  
APPROACHING WARM FRONT, SO OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S. PLENTY OF  
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVING IN, BRINGING A  
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE NORTHWEST DOWN THE THE SOUTHEAST  
BY DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN,  
CAUSING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT.  
 
ON TUESDAY, LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST MOVES  
NORTHEAST, AS THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH NEW  
ENGLAND. MAINE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THIS TIME,  
HELPING RAISE TEMPERATURES BACK UP INTO THE HIGH 70S AND MID  
80S. WITH THIS SYSTEM, THERE IS A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR SOME  
SEVERE WEATHER, IF CONVECTION IS ABLE TO FIRE OFF. FAVORABLE  
SHEAR AND PWAT VALUES RANGING FROM 1.7-2 INCHES, INDICATE THAT  
IF ANY STORMS DID DEVELOP, THE MAIN CONCERNS WOULD BE HEAVY  
DOWNPOURS AND/OR GUSTY WINDS. ELEVATED CAPE/CIN/HELICITY VALUES  
LOOK LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. LAPSE RATES  
CONTINUE TO NOT INDICATE ANYTHING SPECIAL EITHER. SINCE MOST OF  
THE INSTABILITY IS ELEVATED, SOME LIFTING MECHANISM WOULD BE  
NEEDED IN ORDER TO SUPPORT PARCEL LIFTING. THIS COULD DEPEND  
THEN ON THE SPEED OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. AT THIS POINT,  
SEVERE THREAT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT SOME  
THUNDER COULD RUMBLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAIN FALLING.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AFTER THIS SYSTEM, A TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINE,  
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SOME MORE RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.  
LOW PRESSURE IN CANADA MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY, WITH  
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM DOES SEEM TO BRING A  
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT, WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME GUSTY  
WINDS. GENERALLY, HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE  
50S/60S. LOOKING AT ANOTHER WET WET WEEKEND WITH SOME SCATTERED  
RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INCOMING LOW SYSTEM LATER IN  
THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
NEAR TERM:  
IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR  
OVER THE SOUTH AROUND MIDDAY THEN VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IFR  
CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTH SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE THIS  
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTH AND MVFR CONDITIONS  
NORTH MAY DROP TO IFR IN SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT. WINDS LIGHT AND  
VARIABLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.  
 
SHORT TERM:  
MONDAY - MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. IFR FOG POSSIBLE  
OVER DOWNEAST TERMINALS MONDAY MORNING. LIGHT W WINDS BECOMING  
S BY MONDAY EVENING, AT 5-10KTS.  
 
TUESDAY – TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA/TSRA.  
LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR TS ON STATION. THUNDERSTORM COULD LEAD TO  
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS. POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG  
DEVELOPMENT IN VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.  
WINDS FROM THE S AT 5KTS, BECOMING SW AT 5-10KTS, WITH GUSTS UP  
TO 20KTS, ON TUESDAY EVENING.  
 
WEDNESDAY – WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS FROM THE W  
AT 5-10KTS, GUSTING UP TO 20KTS, BECOMING SW WEDNESDAY EVENING.  
 
THURSDAY - THURSDAY NIGHT...MFVR CONDITIONS AS RAIN SHOWERS  
MOVE IN. LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING TS. W WIND 10  
TO 15KTS BECOMING SW BY EVENING.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
NEAR TERM:  
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEAS AROUND 4 FT TODAY  
AND 3 FT TONIGHT. HUMID AIR OVER THE COLDER WATERS WILL LIKELY  
RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG AND MIST TODAY AND TONIGHT.  
 
SHORT TERM: POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON  
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS LIGHT ON MONDAY, BECOMING SW  
BY EVENING TIME. GENERALLY BECOMES W AT 5-10 KTS BY SUNDAY  
EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERNIGHT FOG MONDAY NIGHT. CHANCE  
FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ME...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER  
SHORT TERM...BRENNAN  
LONG TERM...BRENNAN  
AVIATION...BLOOMER/BRENNAN  
MARINE...BLOOMER/BRENNAN  
 
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