507
FXUS61 KCAR 291812
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
212 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
LOW CLOUDS REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER STRONG INVERSION OVER THE CWA
WITH PATCHY FOG, MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 60S WITH TDS SIMILAR AS DWPT
DEPRESSIONS RANGE FROM ABOUT 2 TO 4 DEGREES UNDER WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS.
MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR LATE TONIGHT WITH BREAKS
BEING NOTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTH WOODS. HOW LIKELY
THIS IS TO OCCUR REMAINS AN UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME BUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES UNDER THIS LOW CLOUD
DECK THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS COMING TO AN END BY AROUND 9PM.
MINS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME DROPPING INTO THE MID-50S AS HUMID
AIRMASS REMAINS. PATCHY FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT AS WINDS DECOUPLE UNDER INVERSION.
WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING DRAWING
IN WARM AIR UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH
OF THE REGION. WITH DWPTS RISING BACK INTO THE 60S EXPECT THAT
HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID- UPPER 80S AREAWIDE. CANNOT
RULE OUT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACRS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH BOUNDARY CLOSE AND IN DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
CONVECTION.
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE ONCE AGAIN. AREAS OF FOG WILL BE
PRESENT ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. MINS WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S WITH MID 50S EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
TUESDAY WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM AS THE AREA REMAINS WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR AND A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN ON GUIDANCE, WITH THE ECMWF/RRFS/FV3
BEING ON THE EARLIER SIDE WITH CONVECTION ENTERING WESTERN AREAS
DURING THE MID MORNING, WHILE THE GFS/NAM/RGEM HOLD OFF
PRECIPITATION MAINLY UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. NBM POPS WERE
SUFFICIENT SHOWING THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR PRECIPITATION DURING
THE AFTERNOON, BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID
80S, EXCEPT CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S INLAND TO 60S CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.
THERE IS ALSO A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY
RAIN IF THE LATER ARRIVING SOLUTIONS VERIFY AND SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURS TO BRING DEW POINTS INTO THE
70S. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO SEE THIS ARE AROUND MOOSEHEAD LAKE
INTO THE NORTH WOODS. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE POOR, BUT
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PARCELS IN FULLY SATURATED
ENVIRONMENTS MAY HAVE SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY MILD AND HUMID WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S AND PARTIAL CLEARING AS THE WEAK FRONT PASSES THROUGH
AND WINDS SHIFT SW. BY WEDNESDAY WINDS SHIFT W, WHICH WILL FAVOR
MORE CLEARING AND LESS ONSHORE FLOW, RESULTING IN WARMER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY THE
COAST. NORTHERN AREAS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH DEW
POINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CLIP
NORTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, LEADING TO CHANCES FOR
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS FAVORED AND WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG GUIDANCE THAT
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE HUDSON BAY
TOWARDS MAINE, ARRIVING OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY/INDEPENDENCE DAY.
STEEPENING LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED, ALONG
WITH SW FLOW. THIS PATTERN FAVORS A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS. THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO 80S. BY FRIDAY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN
THE 70S AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVERHEAD.
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES AWAY AND HEIGHTS RISE AS RIDGING BUILDS IN. HOWEVER,
ISOLATED REMAINING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
NORTH. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR EXPECTED ALL AROOSTOOK TERMINALS THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS PRESENT. DOWNEAST TERMINALS SHOULD
SEE IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BY MID-AFTERNOON WITH IFR SETTING OVER
BHB AFTER 06Z. CANNOT RULE OUT IFR CLOUDS AT BGR THOUGH HAVE
INDICATED FEW003 AFTER 06Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
AFTER 12Z MONDAY.
FURTHER NORTH CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 11-13Z WITH FVE
ONLY IMPROVING TO LOW MVFR AFTER THIS TIME.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE VFR FOR NORTHERN SITES WITH IFR
RESTRICTIONS IN FOG FOR SOUTHERN TERMINALS LATE.
SHORT TERM:
TUESDAY: PATCHY FOG EARLY COULD LEAD TO IFR OR LOWER,
ESPECIALLY AT BGR AND BHB, OTHERWISE VFR WITH SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED T-STORMS DEVELOPING, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. S
WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR IN THE EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS, BECOMING VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, LATEST AT BGR AND
BHB. SW WINDS 5-15 KTS. LLWS POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. W WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KTS. PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR WITH TEMPO IFR DEVELOPING IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. SW WINDS 5-15 KTS.
FRIDAY: MVFR/VFR WITH SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. W WINDS 5-15 KTS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES LIKELY TO BE REDUCED IN FOG,
ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM:
WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SEAS
AROUND 5 FEET OVER THE OUTERMOST WATERS ON TUESDAY, ALONG WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...BUSTER
SHORT TERM...MSTRAUSER
LONG TERM...MSTRAUSER
AVIATION...BUSTER/MSTRAUSER
MARINE...BUSTER/MSTRAUSER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page