118
FXUS61 KCAR 300820
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
420 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH TONIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. A DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
RIDGING FROM A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST CONTINUES
TO MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND, BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF CALM AND
DRY CONDITIONS. SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE NORTH, AND PARTIALLY
CLOUDY IN CENTRAL AND COASTAL MAINE. WARM AIR ADVECTS IN FROM
THE WEST, ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW-LEVELS, BRINGING DAYTIME HIGHS
INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 80S THROUGHOUT MAINE. MONDAY NIGHT, LOW
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST MOVES NORTH, BRINGING ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. COLD AIR AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM
FRONT, SO OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-60S. PLENTY OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES IN, BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS FROM THE NORTHWEST DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST BY DAYBREAK ON
TUESDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN, WITH SOME WEAK
LOW-LEVEL JET WINDS MOVING THROUGH THE COAST, CAUSING SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
ON TUESDAY, LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST MOVES
NORTHEAST, AS THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND. MAINE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THIS TIME,
HELPING RAISE TEMPERATURES BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID-80S
INLAND. COASTAL MAINE AREAS WILL BE IN THE UPPER-60S TO LOW-70S DUE
TO THE SOUTHERLY SEABREEZE. WITH THIS SYSTEM, THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER IF CONVECTION IS ABLE TO FIRE
OFF. FAVORABLE CAPE, CIN, SHEAR, AND HELICITY FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT, MOST OF WHICH IS CONFINED TO WESTERN NORTH WOODS
AND CENTRAL HIGHLAND REGION. WORKING AGAINST CONVECTION,
HOWEVER, IS SOME PRETTY LACK-LUSTER LAPSE RATES. SINCE MOST OF
THE INSTABILITY IS ELEVATED, SOME LIFTING MECHANISM WOULD BE
NEEDED IN ORDER TO SUPPORT PARCEL LIFTING. THIS COULD DEPEND
THEN ON THE SPEED OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT, OR IF THE
SURFACE TROUGH THAT MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN THE TWO FRONTS WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO GET THINGS MOVING. CURRENT TRENDS SHOW A SLOWER
SOLUTION TO FRONT MOVEMENT, AND SURFACE TROUGHS DO NOT LOOK TOO
IMPRESSIVE. MAIN THREATS COULD BE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL. DCAPE
VALUES ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE, BUT ELEVATED WINDS ALOFT COULD
RESULT IN SOME GUSTY WINDS AS WELL IF THUNDERSTORM DOES DEVELOP.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES, ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM, EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOWER CHANCES THEN DECREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE, ALONG WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT/TROF, CROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS, SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A THUNDERSTORM, ACROSS MOSTLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE, GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
WEDNESDAY. BRIEF RIDGING WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A SURFACE/UPPER LOW, ALONG WITH A
COLD FRONT, APPROACH FROM QUEBEC PROVINCE THURSDAY. EXPECT
INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY. EXPECT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THURSDAY NIGHT, WHILE THE COLD
FRONT BEGINS TO CROSS THE REGION. COULD STILL HAVE THE CHANCE
OF A THUNDERSTORM EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE, GENERALLY
EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE
UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH THE COLD POOL
ALOFT COULD HELP SUPPORT THE RISK OF HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER LOW WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES
SATURDAY, THOUGH HOW RAPIDLY THIS OCCURS IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT STILL IN THE VICINITY, STEEP LAPSE
RATES COULD SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY. UNCERTAINTY
THEN EXISTS REGARDING ANOTHER POTENTIAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
SUNDAY WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL, TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL, LEVEL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS, RANGING FROM VFR TO VLIFR,
OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY TODAY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
OTHERWISE, VFR TODAY. VFR EARLY TONIGHT, THEN VARIABLE
CONDITIONS AGAIN LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG. VFR/MVFR, OCCASIONAL IFR, WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TUESDAY. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5
TO 10 KNOTS TODAY. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM:
TUE NIGHT...VFR/MVFR, OCCASIONAL IFR, EARLY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VFR/MVFR LATE. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
5 TO 10 KNOTS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS, SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM, MOSTLY NORTH. SOUTHWEST/WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
THURSDAY...VFR EARLY, THEN MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
THURSDAY NIGHT...OCCASIONAL IFR EARLY. OTHERWISE, VFR/MVFR. A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM EARLY.
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS, BECOMING NORTHWEST.
FRIDAY...VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS, OTHERWISE, VFR/MVFR. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND
10 KNOTS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
TODAY. SEAS STAY AT OR BELOW 3 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS, AND AT
OR BELOW 2FT FOR THE INNER WATERS. POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, AS ELEVATED
WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MONDAY,
WITH BECOME SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS TUESDAY
10-20 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE. POTENTIAL FOR SOME
OVERNIGHT FOG LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE, WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT, SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
EARLY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...BRENNAN
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BRENNAN/NORCROSS
MARINE...BRENNAN/NORCROSS
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