830
FXUS61 KCAR 301826
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
226 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
A DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
THE MID LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
TONIGHT AS THE VERTICALLY STACKED TROF MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, CLEAR SKIES AND
COOLER S FLOW WILL BRING TEMPS INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE REGION
WITH 50S ALONG THE COAST. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA. AS RH INCREASES THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN LOW TERRAIN.
FOR TUESDAY, THE WARM FROM TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE THE S FLOW AND THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE THAT THE INITIAL RAIN SHOWERS
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON
STARTING IN THE WEST AND PROGRESSING E. UPPER AIR MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY WITH THE HIGHER CAPE VALUES IN
THE NORTH WOODS. LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO BE WEAK ACROSS THE
REGION. AS OF THIS UPDATE, THE BULK WIND SHEAR IS IN A FAVORABLE
SET UP, THUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH BETTER
CHANCES IN THE NORTH WOODS. THE PWATS ARE SHOWING HIGHER AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE MODELS, SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE A CONCERN WITH ANY OF
THESE PULSE THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, THE NBM DOES WELL WITH KEEPING THE SHOWERS
AROUND ACROSS THE SOUTH AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS TO THE E. THOUGH
THE SREF DOES NOT SHOW THE STRONGEST SIGNATURE FOR POSSIBLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE, THE SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES AND COOLING TEMPS
INDICATE POSSIBLE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, LEADING TO MOSTLY DRIER WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS RIDGE WILL HELP FEED MID
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THAT COULD SUPPORT SOME DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, MOSTLY
ACROSS THE NORTH. WARM WEATHER CONTINUES WITH TEMPERATURES
LIFTING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
WEST ON THURSDAY. A DEEPENING LOW ACROSS QUEBEC WILL BE THE
PARENT LOW TO A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THE FROPA TIMING
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE SOMETIME MID TO LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH PEAK DIURNAL HEATING. WITH
THIS FORCING AND LIFT IN PLACE, ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY THAT
THE FRONT WILL BRING, THERE EXISTS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST, WHERE THE STABLE MARINE LAYER WILL
NEUTRALIZE ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW.
WITH DEEPENING COLD POOL ALOFT AND INVERTED V PRESENTATION ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS, THERE COULD BE A THREAT FOR STRONGER WIND
GUSTS IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. BULK SHEAR IS ALSO
FORECAST TO BE AT LEAST 30 KTS THROUGH THIS TIME, FURTHER
SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR POSSIBLY SOME MORE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
THE MAIN VORT MAX OF THE SYNOPTIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY MOVE OVER THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE 12Z
GFS SUGGESTS THAT THE VORT MAX MAY CROSS NORTHERN MAINE WITH
PEAK VORTICITY ALONG THE EASTERN MAINE BORDER. THE 12Z CMC
AGREES WITH THIS OUTLOOK, WITH THE 00Z ECMWF IN LINE AS WELL,
THOUGH RESOLVING A DEEPER TROUGH ALOFT. WITH THE CENTER OF THIS
LOW CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA, A COLD POOL ALOFT WILL ACT TO
FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT AND COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH ACCOMPANY THE PRECIP THAT MOVES IN
WITH THE LOW. LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN, AND ENOUGH CAPE AND
SHEAR COULD BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. WITH
COLDER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE BULK
SHEAR, THESE STORMS MAY EVEN SUPPORT HAIL DEVELOPMENT INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND THIS SETUP WILL CONTINUE TO BE
CLOSELY MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, LEADING TO DRIER
WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND, WHILE TEMPERATURES REBOUND TOWARDS
AVERAGE BEHIND THE RECENT LOW PRESSURE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COULD
MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THOUGH
GUIDANCE IS MORE UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
NEAR TERM: AROOSTOOK TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL DECREASE TO MVFR BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACHING SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SSW WINDS TONIGHT. S WINDS
5-10 KTS TUESDAY.
DOWNEAST TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT BEFORE MIDNIGHT,
THEN QUICKLY DECREASING TO IFR/LIFR IN CIGS/VSBY WITH PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG. IFR/LIFR THROUGHOUT TUESDAY. LIGHT SSW WINDS
TONIGHT. S WINDS 5-10 KTS TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM:
WED...GENERALLY VFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON, MOSTLY AT NORTHERN
TERMINALS. WSW WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
WED NIGHT...VFR WITH SKC. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
THURSDAY...VFR CIGS IN THE MORNING, BECOMING MVFR/IFR AS RAIN
MOVES IN FROM NW TO SE. CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL TERMINALS ASIDE FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS.
THURS NIGHT...OCCASIONAL IFR EARLY. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY VFR. RAIN
SHOWERS QUICKLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIGHT W WINDS.
FRI - FRI NIGHT...MAINLY VFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS, TRENDING
TOWARDS MVFR/IFR IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. NW WINDS
5 TO 10 KTS.
SAT...VFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. W WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS
TONIGHT. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SEAS 2-3 FT.
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RAIN
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...LAFLASH
SHORT TERM...ASTRAUSER
LONG TERM...ASTRAUSER
AVIATION...LAFLASH/ASTRAUSER
MARINE...LAFLASH/ASTRAUSER
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