971
FXUS61 KCAR 011159
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
759 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT CROSSES MAINE TODAY. A DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
4:30AM UPDATE....DENSE FOG BEGINS TO MOVE INTO COASTAL AND
DOWNEAST REGIONS THIS MORNING, WITH VISIBILITY AROUND A QUARTER
MILES OR LESS IN AREAS. EXERCISE CAUTION IF COMMUTING OR
TRAVELING THIS MORNING. VISIBILITY SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATER
THIS MORNING. ALSO UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE THUNDER POTENTIAL
ALONG THE COASTLINE, DUE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING A STABLE
MARINE LAYER OVER THE AREA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY, LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE
NORTHWEST MOVES NORTHEAST, AS THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. MAINE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE
MORNING HOURS, HELPING RAISE TEMPERATURES BACK UP INTO THE MID-
TO-UPPER 70S. COASTAL MAINE AREAS WILL BE IN THE UPPER-60S DUE
TO THE SOUTHERLY SEABREEZE, WHICH HELPS TO STABILIZE THE AREA.
LOW WINDS, INCREASING RELATIVELY HUMIDITIES, CLEAR SKIES AND
INVERSION CAUSE SOME FOG TO MOVE INTO COASTAL AND PORTIONS OF
DOWNEAST MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING. IMMEDIATE COAST WILL SEE SOME
REDUCED VISIBILITY, WITH AREAS OF FOG, THAT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
UP TO LOW STRATUS GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. WESTERLY
FLOW HELPS TO KEEP FOG GENERALLY AROUND AND SOUTH OF I-95.
WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SEVERE WEATHER IF CONVECTION IS ABLE TO FIRE OFF. FAVORABLE
CAPE, CIN, SHEAR, AND HELICITY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT,
MOST OF WHICH IS CONFINED TO WESTERN NORTH WOODS AND CENTRAL
HIGHLAND REGION. SEA BREEZE ALONG THE COAST KEEPS A STABLE
MARINE LAYER OVER DOWNEAST, SO REALLY NOT EXPECTING CONVECTION
DOWN THERE AT THIS TIME. WORKING AGAINST CONVECTION IN THE
NORTH IS SOME PRETTY LACK-LUSTER LAPSE RATES. SINCE MOST OF THE
INSTABILITY IS ELEVATED, SOME LIFTING MECHANISM WOULD BE NEEDED
IN ORDER TO SUPPORT PARCEL LIFTING. THIS COULD DEPEND THEN ON
THE SPEED OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT, OR IF THE SURFACE TROUGH
THAT MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN THE TWO FRONTS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO GET THINGS MOVING. CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOWER
SOLUTION TO FRONT MOVEMENT, AND SURFACE TROUGHS DO NOT LOOK TOO
IMPRESSIVE. MAIN THREATS COULD BE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL, AS PWAT
VALUES RANGE FROM 1.5-2 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE AREA. DCAPE
VALUES ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE, BUT ELEVATED WINDS ALOFT COULD
RESULT IN SOME GUSTY WINDS AS WELL IF THUNDERSTORM DOES DEVELOP.
TONIGHT, COLD FRONT PASSES OVER MAINE. ANOTHER HUMID NIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS, SO FOG DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR IN COASTAL AREAS
AND VALLEYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW, BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING OCCURS. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FROM TUESDAY MOVES EAST IN THE ATLANTIC, KEEPING ASSOCIATED RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE WATERS. APPROACHING LOW TO THE NORTHWEST COULD
CAUSE SOME SHORTWAVE KINKS IN LOW-LEVELS, AND WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE, COULD BE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS IN THE NORTH TOMORROW.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE, AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE JUST NOT
IMPRESSIVE. CAPE, CIN, AND HELICITY ARE THERE, BUT NOTHING
REALLY STANDING OUT AT THIS POINT. MAYBE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHOWERS. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID-80S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
BRIEF RIDGING WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. A SURFACE/UPPER LOW, ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT,
APPROACH FROM QUEBEC PROVINCE THURSDAY. EXPECT INCREASING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY, MOST EXTENSIVE ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL AREAS. THE UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THURSDAY
NIGHT, WHILE THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO CROSS THE REGION. COULD
STILL HAVE THE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE, GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE BETTER CHANCES
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH THE
COLD POOL ALOFT COULD HELP SUPPORT THE RISK OF HAIL WITH ANY
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVEL
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL, TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, LEVEL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO EXIT FRIDAY NIGHT. COULD STILL HAVE
A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER LOW WILL
EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES SATURDAY, THOUGH HOW RAPIDLY THIS
OCCURS IS STILL UNCERTAIN. WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT STILL IN THE
VICINITY, STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD STILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS SATURDAY, MOSTLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY.
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING ANOTHER POTENTIAL SYSTEM
WHICH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HAVE INCLUDED
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY. NEAR NORMAL, TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY. SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY/MONDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
NEAR TERM: KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL: VFR THIS MORNING, THEN MVFR/IFR
THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. VFR/MVFR TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
EARLY. VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH ANY PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10
KNOTS TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST/WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.
KBGR/KBHB: IFR/LIFR, OCCASIONAL VLIFR, THIS MORNING WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG. MVFR/IFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. VFR/MVFR TONIGHT
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH ANY PATCHY FOG
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR WEDNESDAY
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15
KNOTS TODAY. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.
SOUTHWEST/WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM:
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
THURSDAY...VFR EARLY, THEN MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
THURSDAY NIGHT...OCCASIONAL IFR EARLY. OTHERWISE, VFR/MVFR. A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM EARLY.
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS, BECOMING WEST/NORTHWEST.
FRIDAY...VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS, OTHERWISE, VFR/MVFR. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND
10 KNOTS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...OCCASIONAL MVFR EARLY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE, VFR. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
SATURDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER NORTH. WEST/SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
TODAY AND TOMORROW. SEAS STAY AT OR BELOW 4 FT OVER THE OUTER
WATERS, AND AT OR BELOW 3FT FOR THE INNER WATERS. SOUTHERLY
WINDS TODAY AT 10-20 KTS. GUSTS GENERALLY AROUND 20KT, WITH A
FEW GUSTS UP 25 KT POSSIBLE. WINDS SHIFT SW BY TONIGHT, INTO
WEDNESDAY. FOG EXPECTED THIS MORNING, AND LATE TONIGHT.
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ015>017-
029-030.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...BRENNAN
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BRENNAN/NORCROSS
MARINE...BRENNAN/NORCROSS
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