356
FXUS61 KCAR 151919
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
319 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN TONIGHT, THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
NIGHT, THEN CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH
TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP WINDS CALM AND SKIES CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THE
QUESTION FOR TONIGHT IS HOW LOW DO THE TEMPS GO. UPPER AIR MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY DRY AND COOL INVERSION LAYER WITH VERY
LITTLE MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. DECIDED TO DECREASE TEMPS
FROM THE NBM, THUS GIVING MID 40S IN THE NORTH AND UPPER 40S IN
THE SOUTH.
BY SATURDAY, THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVE WEST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE HIGH MOVING OFF OVER THE
WATERS WILL PULL IN THE WARM, MOIST AIRMASS FROM THE SOUTH. THIS
WILL SHIFT WINDS BY THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY. WITH
THE WARM S WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES COMES THE WARMER TEMPS INTO THE
LOW 80S ACROSS THE REGION.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT, THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
RAIN SHOWERS CHANCES ARE LIMITED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE NIGHT,
THOUGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM NW TO SE THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT. THE WARM AIRMASS AND THE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER MIDNIGHT, THE
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD START TO MOVE INTO THE NORTH WOODS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY, BRINGING RAIN AND POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COULD BE THE FIRST
POSSIBILITY OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR THE REGION, ALTHOUGH
RAINFALL TOTALS STILL LOOK FAIRLY MEAGER, WITH LESS THAN 0.5"
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REGION OUTSIDE OF THE CROWN OF MAINE.
CERTAINLY NOT A DROUGHT BUSTER BY ANY MEANS BUT ANY LITTLE BIT
HELPS. THE CROWN OF MAINE COULD SEE A BIT MORE, WITH 0.6" TO
0.75" EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN MAX DAYTIME HEATING
WILL INCREASE CAPES ACROSS THE SOUTH. NBM PROB THUNDER VALUES
WERE A LITTLE HIGH IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH, SO LOWERED
THESE VALUES A LITTLE TO REFLECT THE MINIMAL CHANCE OF MORNING
THUNDERSTORMS, EVEN WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
BEHIND THE FRONT, NW WINDS WILL USHER IN A COOLER, DRIER AIR
MASS. WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 20 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT, SO THIS
COULD DRY ANY AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY.
TEMPS OVERNIGHT ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID-40S OR
EVEN THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH WOODS. IF DECOUPLING OCCURS,
THIS FORECAST MAY STILL BE A LITTLE OPTIMISTIC FOR LOW LYING
AREAS LIKE ESTCOURT STATION.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
LONG TERM PATTERN LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET, EVEN WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF A SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN ENERGY FROM
THIS SYSTEM MAY SCOOT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE,
SO CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING NORTHWARD
IS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS POINT. THAT SHORTWAVE AND THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN AFTERWARDS WILL BE THE MAIN FACTORS
PUSHING ERIN OFFSHORE AT THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THIS POINT, IT
LOOKS PRETTY UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN MAINE TO SEE ANY SENSIBLE
WEATHER EFFECTS FROM ERIN, HOWEVER, LONG PERIOD WAVES CAUSING
UNSAFE BEACH CONDITIONS AND HIGH SURF ARE A POSSIBILITY AND NEED
TO BE CONSIDERED HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS FROM TONIGHT TO SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT, THEN S WIND AROUND 5 KTS SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM: SATURDAY NIGHT..MAINLY VFR. RAIN SHOWERS BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM
THE NW, WHICH COULD BRING PERIODS OF MVFR FOR NORTHERN
TERMINALS. S WINDS 5-15 KTS.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR/MVFR. BRIEF IFR OR LOWER
IN THE PM, WITH SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA. S/SW WINDS 5-10 KTS
EARLY, SWITCHING TO NW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY. GUSTS
15-20 KT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. WINDS FROM THE N/NW AT 5-10 KTS, WITH GUSTS
15-20 KTS POSSIBLE EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS GRADUALLY RELAX BY
EVENING.
TUESDAY...VFR. WINDS FROM THE NW AT 5-10 KTS IN NORTHERN
TERMINALS, AND SHIFTING FROM N TO S AT 5-10KTS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS.
TUESDAY NIGHT – WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR, POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH SHRA. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE BECOMING
S/SW ON WEDNESDAY AT 5-10KTS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE CHANCE FOR GUSTIEST WINDS WILL BE ON
SUNDAY, WHEN NW WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 20KTS OVER THE WATERS.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE OUTER WATERS. SUNDAY WILL ALSO
SEE AN INCREASE IN SEAS TO AROUND 3 TO 4 FEET. OTHERWISE, SEAS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ029-
030.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...LAFLASH
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM...LF
AVIATION...LAFLASH/LF
MARINE...LAFLASH/LF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page