508
FXUS61 KCAR 160733
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
333 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT, AND THEN CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES, AS A MID-LEVEL
POSITIVELY TITLED TROUGH SWINGS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS A
RESULT, DRY AND CALM CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SKIES
STAY RELATIVELY CLEAR TODAY, WITH LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING,
BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S,
WITH THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN THE 70S, FROM THE DEVELOPING SEA
BREEZE. TONIGHT, OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER-50S TO LOW-60S,
WITH CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY MOVING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST, MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST. KNOCKED
TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT MAY OCCUR
WITH CLEARING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
TOMORROW, COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING, GIVEN
DIURNAL HEATING SUPPORT. COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS DURING THE
DAY. LOOKING AT THE RAP, THE BEST AREA OF INSTABILITY IS IN
DOWNEAST MAINE, WITH SOME CAPE RANGING FROM 500-1500 J/KG
DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FAVORABLE, BUT
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE. MODELS DO HINT AT AN
AREA OF CIN THAT COULD WORK AGAINST ANY DEVELOPING STORMS.
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DECENT SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL.
BOTTOM LINE UPFRONT IS THAT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP, PRIMARILY DOWNEAST, BUT ENVIRONMENT
DOS NOT SEEM FAVORABLE FOR ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS
TIME. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 60S IN THE NORTH, 70S IN CENTRAL
MAINE, AND 80S DOWNEAST, BASED ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY SUNDAY
NIGHT, WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. COULD STILL HAVE SHOWERS, SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM, EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. SKIES THEN CLEAR OVERNIGHT
WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT, WITH MOSTLY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TUESDAY.
EXPECT BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES MONDAY/TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES COULD FALL INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE NORMALLY
COLDER LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN MAINE BOTH SUNDAY/MONDAY NIGHTS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WEDNESDAY, WITH
ONLY THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF SHOULD
HELP STEER ERIN OUT TO SEA, WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION,
THURSDAY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD TOWARD THE REGION.
EXPECT MOSTLY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT, THE PRIMARY
IMPACT FROM ERIN FOR THE FORECAST AREA APPEARS TO BE INCREASING
LONG PERIOD WAVES FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD
CAUSES HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY, WITH NEAR
NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
NEAR TERM:
KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL: VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. SKIES GENERALLY
CLEAR, AND WINDS LIGHT ARE VARIABLE THIS MORNING, BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE S/SW AT 5-10 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL
FOR SOME FOG TO DEVELOP IN VALLEY REGIONS, PRIMARILY KPQI AND
KHUL THIS MORNING, WHICH COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY.
KBGR/KBHB: VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR, AND
WINDS LIGHT ARE VARIABLE THIS MORNING, BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE
S/SW AT 5-10 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM:
SUNDAY NIGHT...OCCASIONAL MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY WITH SHOWERS,
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. OTHERWISE, VFR. NORTH/NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH ANY
PATCHY OVERNIGHT MOSTLY RIVER VALLEY FOG. OTHERWISE, VFR.
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS
MONDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER. VARIABLE
WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. SEAS GENERALLY 3 FT OR BELOW OVER ALL
WATERS. WINDS FROM THE S/SW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS PICK UP
TOMORROW, WITH GUSTS 15-20 KTS POSSIBLE. CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY
FOG OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS
AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER SUNDAY EVENING.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER, A FEW WIND GUSTS
COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT.
SHOWERS LIKELY, ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS,
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...BRENNAN
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BRENNAN/NORCROSS
MARINE...BRENNAN/NORCROSS
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