891
FXUS61 KCAR 161805
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
205 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM NORTHWEST TONIGHT, THEN CROSSES MAINE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH THEN SLOWLY SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
TUESDAY THOUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ON SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION, BRINGING RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE.
THESE WILL BE WETTING RAINS, AROUND 0.3 TO 0.5" OF QPF, HOWEVER
THEY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO MAKE UP FOR THE CURRENT DEFICIT,
ESPECIALLY FOR OUR DROUGHT PRONE AREAS. THIS SYSTEM IS PRETTY
STABLE AS IT CROSSES NORTHERN MAINE IN THE MORNING, WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON, MOSTLY SOUTH OF
THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THIS POSSIBILITY WILL DEPEND ON SOLAR HEATING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO GENERATE ENOUGH CAPE FOR STORMS TO FORM.
THERE MAY BE LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAVIER QPF IN THESE STORMS,
ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING. OVERALL HOWEVER, THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MEAGER.
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY, AND
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE SLIGHTLY GUSTIER,
REACHING UP TO 25KTS, ESPECIALLY IN ELEVATED AREAS. THE WINDS
WILL PREVENT A PRECIPITOUS DROP IN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT, AS WELL AS ANY FOG FORMATION THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE REGION IS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
WITH NO NOTABLE SHORTWAVES PROGGED TO BE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW, IT
SHOULD BE DRY. THERE SHOULD BE MINIMAL CLOUD COVER ON MONDAY,
AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY NIGHT (THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IF ANY MID TO HIGH CLOUDS BUILD IN FROM AN MCS OVER
THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES). HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WITH LIGHT WINDS, THE LIMITING FACTOR ON
RADIATIONAL COOLING MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE EXTENT OF ANY MID-HIGH
CLOUDINESS FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED MCS. LEANING TOWARDS CLOUD
COVER BEING LESS LIKELY THAN MORE LIKELY, SO DID BLEND IN 25TH
PERCENTILE OF THE NBM WITH THE NBM FOR LOWS.
NORTHERN STREAM RIDGING BUILDS IN ON TUESDAY, SO IT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE DRY, WITH THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY BEING HOW MUCH,
CLOUD COVER COMES FROM AN MCS OVER THE GREAT LAKES, ASSUMING IT
EVEN EXISTS - AS MODELS DO NOT TYPICALLY HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
MCSS THIS FAR OUT. FOR NOW GOING WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY AROUND 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
WEAK NORTHERN STREAM RIDGING EXITS TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT, SO
IT SHOULD BE DRY. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAR
NORTH THE MAIN FORCING WILL BE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE, WITH A
GENERAL TREND TO THE SOUTH. AS A RESULT, HAVE LIMITED POPS TO
AT MOST CHANCE, WITH CHANCE POPS RESTRICTED TO AREAS FROM AROUND
BANGOR ON EAST/SOUTH, AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE NORTH OF
THERE. IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD, AT LEAST THE NORTH COULD END UP
BEING DRY AND POSSIBLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT, SO OTHER
THAN POSSIBLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER EASTERN MAINE THURSDAY
MORNING IT SHOULD BE DRY.
LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE ERIN, PASSING FAR TO THE S/SE
COULD BRING A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE HIGH SURF WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST STATEMENTS
FROM NHC FOR THE MOST CURRENT INFORMATION ON ERIN.
THE MODELS THEN DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES AND RIDGING FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE COULD BE
SOME ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS, MOST LIKELY ACROSS
JUST THE NORTH DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY
NIGHT, THEN NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE PATTERN LATE NEXT WEEK, THERE IS
ABOVE NORMAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THEN.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
NEAR TERM:
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE FOG AT
SOUTHERN TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. HAVE REDUCED CONDITIONS TO MVFR
OVERNIGHT FOR BHB AND BGR, BUT BHB MAY ACTUALLY DETERIORATE TO
IFR IN LOW CIGS WITH THE FORMATION OF MARINE STRATUS. NORTHERN
TAF SITES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH TONIGHT, DETERIORATING AS
-SHRA MOVE IN TOMORROW (SUNDAY) MORNING. W TO SW WINDS BECOMING
NW WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 25KTS LATER SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM:
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY....VFR, WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF
MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY VALLEY FOG LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. N-NE WINDS G15KT POSSIBLE MONDAY AND MONDAY
EVENING.
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR AT NORTHERN TERMINALS. MVFR
POSSIBLE AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS.
THURSDAY...VFR.
MARINE
NEAR TERM:
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT, HOWEVER, THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW GUSTS TO
25KTS ON THE OUTER WATERS IN NW FLOW BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING.
SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET.
SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY, WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. THEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES OVER THE WATERS, WITH WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SWELLS INCREASE OVER THE WATERS
FROM HURRICANE ERIN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO SCA LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS AND BY THURSDAY ON THE INTRA- COASTAL WATERS.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ029-
030.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...LF/MALOIT
MARINE...LF/MALOIT
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