887
FXUS61 KCAR 191427
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1027 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN BEGIN
TO MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHILE HURRICANE ERIN TRACKS WELL TO OUR
SOUTH.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
10:25 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN
BEGINS TO MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE TROF WILL ALSO EXTEND
TOWARD WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. ALOFT,
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY, WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COULD ALSO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS MOSTLY NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES
TODAY/WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A SMALL SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY EVENING. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION AS IT
SLIDES THROUGH. MEANWHILE, HURRICANE ERIN WILL BE TRACKING NORTH
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS A RESULT OF THE
ANTICYCLONIC HIGH OVER THE HURRICANE CONTRASTING WITH WITH THE
CYCLONIC FLOW OF THE SHORTWAVE MAY ENHANCE SHOWERS A LITTLE.
HOWEVER, THIS IS MUCH MORE LIKELY DOWN IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
CLOSER TO THE HURRICANE'S INFLUENCE. ANY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER OUR
AREA WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
PARTIAL CLEARING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA THURSDAY WILL BRING A PARTLY
SUNNY DAY WITH SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. THERE MAY STILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTH WHERE A BIT OF
MOISTURE WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL TURN OUT MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MID 40S
NORTH AND LOW 50S OVER INTERIOR DOWNEAST.
MEANWHILE, SWELL FROM HURRICANE ERIN, TRACKING WELL OFFSHORE, WILL
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY, RISING THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT FROM
AROUND 5 FT TO 6 FT THURSDAY TO UP TO 9 FT BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE COAST WITH SOME BEACH AND SHORELINE EROSION
AND DANGEROUS RIP TIDES.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WILL BRING A MOSTLY SUNNY AND
TRANQUIL DAY ACROSS OUR REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
HURRICANE ERIN WILL BE TRACKING WELL OFF OUR COAST TO A POSITION A
FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. LONG PERIOD SEAS UP TO 9
FT WILL IMPACT THE COAST BRINGING A RISK OF RIP TIDE AND BEACH
EROSION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO OUR SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HURRICANE ERIN
CONTINUES OUT TO SEA INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC. A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY TO THE NORTH
WHILE DOWNEAST IS MOSTLY CLEAR.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST COMBINED WITH THE APPROACH OF
A LARGE LOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL BRING A BREEZIER DAY
SATURDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND ADVECTING SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION. INLAND HIGHS WILL MAKE A RUN FOR 80 AND
DUE POINTS WILL MAKE A RUN FOR 60S.
THE LARGE LOW IN CANADA WILL TRACK FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY DRAWING AN OCCLUDED FRONT INTO OUR AREA. MOISTURE
ADVECTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE OCCLUSION AND BEHIND DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GET SOME DYNAMIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT
COMBINED WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TO BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME BANDS
OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN ALTHOUGH FORECAST MODELS ARE NOT YET IN
AGREEMENT ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF RAIN WILL FOCUS.
AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY. VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM:
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR SOUTH. MVFR BECOMING VFR NORTH. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND.
THURSDAY...VFR. LIGHT NW WIND NORTH AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
SOUTH.
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. CALM WIND.
FRIDAY...VFR. LIGHT N TO NE WIND.
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT S WIND.
SATURDAY...VFR. LIGHT S WIND.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, SWELLS FROM HURRICANE ERIN WILL
BEGIN TO REACH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY WITH BUILDING SEAS.
SHORT TERM: WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT THIS WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL BE 3 TO 4 FT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THEN INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO HURRICANE ERIN UP TO 7 FT THURSDAY
THEN 9 FT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE OVER THE WEEKEND.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...CLARK/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CLARK/NORCROSS/BLOOMER
MARINE...CLARK/NORCROSS/BLOOMER
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