006
FXUS61 KCAR 191843
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
243 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN BEGIN
TO MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ON CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN
AND EASTERN MAINE. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME MORE CLOUDS TO
ENTER THE AREA TONIGHT. THUS, IT WILL NOT BE AS CHILLY AS LAST
NIGHT. HOWEVER, STILL WENT A BIT BELOW NBM GUIDANCE FOR LOWS DUE
TO LIGHT WINDS AND AT LEAST SOME PERIODS OF CLEARING. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S FOR MOST PLACES, EXCEPT AROUND 50
NEAR BANGOR AND AT THE COAST. A SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THE EVENING. THE MAIN RAINFALL ACTIVITY WITH
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THAT SAID,
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW MANY
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE THERE ARE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH BREAKS OF SUN FOR MOST PLACES TO REACH THE LOWER
TO MID 70S. IF SKIES STAY MORE OVERCAST, HIGHS COULD BE A BIT
COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
ANY SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SOME CLEARING IS LIKELY, BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXACTLY HOW
MUCH. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES. AT THIS TIME,
FORECASTING MOST PLACES TO SEE LOWS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50
DEGREES. LOWER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IF THERE IS MORE
CLEARING THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
TOWARDS DAYBREAK THURSDAY, PARTICULARLY IF THERE IS MORE
CLEARING.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
QUIET WEATHER OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LIGHT NW FLOW
ALOFT, WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. ERIN WILL BE
PASSING WELL SOUTH OF US, AND WINDS FROM ERIN ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE AN ISSUE. WE DO BEGIN SEEING A WIND OUT OF THE N/NE ABOUT
10 MPH FRIDAY AFTERNOON ON THE VERY NORTH EDGE OF ERIN'S
CIRCULATION, BUT THAT'S ABOUT AS WINDY AS IT GETS. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THURSDAY TO FRIDAY. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
IN THE NORTH ON THURSDAY, BUT GENERALLY DRY BOTH DAYS.
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO AVERAGE.
COASTAL CONCERNS FOR ERIN...
SEE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK ALSO. A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY
SWELL FROM ERIN IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY,
PEAKING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS EXTREMELY HIGH
THAT HIGH SURF CRITERIA WILL EASILY BE MET, WITH SIGNIFICANT RIP
CURRENT HAZARD AS WELL. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF SOME MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AND EROSION, ESPECIALLY AROUND THE MIDDAY
FRIDAY AND LATE FRIDAY EVENING HIGH TIDES. WITH QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED FRIDAY OTHERWISE, FRIDAY WILL BE THE TYPE OF DAY WHERE
UNAWARE PEOPLE ON ROCKS/LEDGES ALONG THE SHORE CAN EASILY GET
IN TROUBLE AND BE WASHED INTO THE SEA BY A LARGE WAVE. PEOPLE
HAVE DIED IN THE PAST IN THESE SORTS OF SITUATIONS. RIGHT NOW,
WE DON'T THINK THIS LOOKS LIKE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING-LEVEL
EVENT, BUT A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY ALSO BE NEEDED.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
SEE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK, AND ABOVE COASTAL CONCERNS FOR
ERIN, FOR MORE ON ERIN'S IMPACT.
THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE AN APPROACHING POTENT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. HOWEVER, ITS APPROACH IS SLOW ENOUGH THAT SATURDAY LOOKS
DRY, AND PROBABLY THE BRUNT OF SUNDAY AS WELL UNTIL LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN AVERAGE FOR THE
WEEKEND, BUT NOT REALLY MUGGY DESPITE THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE.
SOUTH WINDS PICK UP SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY/MONDAY, AND
WITH CONFIDENCE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON SUNDAY/MONDAY, WENT
A BIT STRONGER THAN NBM WINDS. NOT EXPECTING ANY DAMAGING WIND
BY ANY STRETCH, BUT WITH HOW DRY THINGS ARE, IT COULD LEAD TO
INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL THE RAIN ARRIVES. RAIN DOES LOOK
LIKELY AT SOME POINT LATE SUNDAY TO TUESDAY, BUT THERE IS STILL
A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE SLOWLY
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THUS THE TIMING OF THE RAIN.
DO THINK THAT MOST PLACES COULD GET A PRETTY DECENT WETTING RAIN
AT SOME POINT LATE SUNDAY TO TUESDAY, BUT THE WHEN/WHERE/HOW
MUCH IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. IT DOES LOOK LIKE ABOUT A
75 PERCENT CHANCE OF THERE BEING MORE THAN 0.25 INCH RAIN, AND
ABOUT A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF MORE THAN 0.50 INCH. SHOULD BE
UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR STORMS TOO, ESPECIALLY MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR TONIGHT, WEDNESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BRIEF MVFR WITH VCSH POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING, MAINLY FOR
NORTHERN TERMINALS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. BCFG POSSIBLE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. S WINDS 5-10 KTS WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM:
THURSDAY TO SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. WINDS VARIABLE AND GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 KTS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NE 10 KTS ALONG THE
COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND S 10 KTS AREAWIDE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...INCREASING CHANCES OF MVFR/IFR
MAINLY DOWNEAST AND NEAR THE COAST. MOSTLY VFR INLAND. S WIND
5-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD
TOWARDS SCA LEVELS AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. SWELLS FROM
HURRICANE ERIN INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY ONWARD AS IT PASSES WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS.
SHORT TERM: LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE ERIN
WILL IMPACT THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
THE PEAK BEING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. AT THE PEAK FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY EVENING, SEAS WILL BE AROUND 10 FEET, WITH MOST OF THAT,
AROUND 9 FEET, AS A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL WITH A PERIOD
AROUND 17 SECONDS. WINDS HOWEVER LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT AND GENERALLY
15 KTS OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY. THEY WILL BE FROM THE NE
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY, THEN SHIFTING S. TOWARD SUNDAY, THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-END SMALL CRAFT LEVEL S WINDS, BUT THE
SEAS BY THIS POINT WILL HAVE FALLEN BACK DOWN TO 3-5 FEET POST-
ERIN.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...CLARK
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...CLARK/FOISY
MARINE...CLARK/FOISY
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