045
FXUS61 KCAR 201903
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
303 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN RIDGED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO
FRIDAY. HURRICANE ERIN PASSES WELL SOUTHEAST OF MAINE THROUGH
SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE NEAR-
TERM PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO
FROM KATAHDIN NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SKIES TONIGHT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY NORTH, AND MOSTLY CLEAR FOR
BANGOR AND DOWNEAST. SOME PATCHY FOG COULD OCCUR LATE TONIGHT,
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLEARING THERE IS. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE A BIT MILDER THAN RECENT DAYS.
EXPECT MID TO UPPER 70S AWAY FROM THE COAST. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. IT WILL BE A BIT
BREEZIER ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS HURRICANE ERIN PASSES
FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST OF MAINE.
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR COASTAL DOWNEAST
STARTING THURSDAY EVENING DUE TO LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM
HURRICANE ERIN. PLEASE SEE THE MARINE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
FRIDAY WILL BE WARM, DRY AND AND SUNNY, WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AS
HURRICANE ERIN PASSES OFFSHORE FAR TO THE EAST. THIS INCREASES
THE DANGERS OF HIGH SURF, SINCE THE COAST WILL BE QUITE
APPEALING AND VISITORS MAY NOT EXPECT HIGH SEAS WITH QUIET
WEATHER ON LAND. THE NORTHERLY WINDS GENERATED BY THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN ERIN AND THE ENCROACHING HIGH PRESSURE WILL
OVERPOWER THE SEA BREEZE, SO TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR
80 WILL MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST. DID INCREASE WINDS
SLIGHTLY FROM THE NBM OVER THE LAND TO CONTINUE THE TREND FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ACCOMMODATE FOR THE INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT.
HURRICANE ERIN SHOULD RAPIDLY MOVE EASTWARD AT THIS POINT, SO
WINDS WILL COME DOWN RATHER QUICKLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH SURF
WILL LINGER A LITTLE BIT LONGER, THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE
WARMING TREND WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S ACROSS THE
BOARD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
THE SYNOPTIC WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY, SO COASTAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE COOLER THAN FRIDAY. INLAND, HIGHS WILL RISE
INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A LLJ FORMS
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS COULD BRING WINDS GUSTING TO
AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN SUNDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE OFF AND ON UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON
TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE SHOWERY IN NATURE, THE PROLONGED
ASPECT MEANS THAT MOST AREAS WILL RECEIVE SOME PRECIPITATION,
AND AMOUNTS LOOK LIKE THEY COULD RANGE FROM 0.25" TO 1.00" FOR
THE DURATION OF THE EVENT. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO COOLER
THAN NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO
THE 40S AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT, AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY RANGING FROM
THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR TONIGHT, THURSDAY, AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
BCFG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY AM, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. N-NE
WINDS 5-10 KTS THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTS 15-20 KTS POSSIBLE AT KBHB
THURSDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM:
FRIDAY...VFR. N WIND 10 TO 15 KTS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND.
SATURDAY...VFR. LIGHT S WIND.
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR, POSSIBLY LOWERING TO MVFR OVER THE NORTH. S
WIND.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR SOUTH. MVFR/IFR NORTH. CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS, PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST. INCREASING S WIND,
POSSIBLY GUSTING TO 25KTS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TONIGHT, THURSDAY, AND
THURSDAY NIGHT AS HURRICANE ERIN PASSES WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE
WATERS. SEAS BUILD FROM 4 TO 6 FEET TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, AND UP
TO 10 FEET BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. PERIODS WILL INCREASE TO 13
TO 17 SECONDS, RESULTING IN HIGH SURF. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGH
SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ON THE WATERS.
SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL OF WINDS GREATER THAN 25KTS
BEGINNING SUNDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. SEAS DURING THIS PERIOD
WILL START OUT QUITE HIGH, 10 TO 13 FEET AS THE SOUTHERLY SWELL
FROM ERIN IMPACTS THE COAST, THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. LONG WAVE PERIODS OF 13 TO 17 SECONDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY, GRADUALLY SUBSIDING ON SUNDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
MEZ029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY
FOR ANZ050>052.
NEAR TERM...CLARK
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM...LF
AVIATION...CLARK/LF
MARINE...CLARK/LF
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