735
FXUS61 KCAR 212336
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
736 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY, THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT AS HURRICANE ERIN
PASSES WELL SOUTH AND THEN EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
710PM UPDATE...
JUST SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS. STILL SOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER THE SUN GOES DOWN, WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR
NIGHT IN STORE. THE VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM EARLIER HAVE ALL
DISSIPATED BY NOW. PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN ISOLATED POP UP SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE FROM KATAHDIN
NORTHWARD BEFORE SUNSET. OTHERWISE, AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. INLAND AREAS
WILL SEE VERY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. THUS, DECIDED TO GO A BIT
BELOW NBM GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WITH MID TO UPPER 40S
EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT.
THE DOWNEAST COAST WILL BEGIN TO SEE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
INCREASE TONIGHT AS HURRICANE ERIN PASSES FAR TO THE SOUTH. THIS
WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S THERE. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN ERIN AND THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL
SUPPORT WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH AT THE COAST. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER INLAND, BUT THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MIXING TO RESULT
DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE 40S FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
THIS WILL CAUSE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO DROP TO 30-40
PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AS HURRICANE ERIN
MOVES AWAY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. AT THE SAME TIME, THE HIGH
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST, WHILE A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THUS, CLOUDS INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT,
WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE CROWN OF MAINE LATE. LOWS
WILL BE MILDER FRIDAY NIGHT, LOWER TO MID 50S FOR MOST PLACES.
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL DOWNEAST
THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS
ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR HIGH TIDE LATE FRIDAY EVENING, WITH MINOR
SPLASHOVER POSSIBLE. PLEASE SEE THE MARINE SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
WARM, SUNNY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION. THE STRENGTH
OF THIS HIGH HAS SLOWED DOWN THE COLD FRONT A LITTLE, SO NOT
EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY ON SUNDAY AS A FEW
OF THE PREVIOUS RUNS. ON SUNDAY, RETURN FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, AND DAY TIME MIXING WILL BRING A LOW
LEVEL JET CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, CAUSING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO GUST
UP TO 20 TO 30 MPH. THE RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE HUMIDITY AND
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT THIS WILL NOT BE AS
ANOMALOUSLY WARM AS THE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO, AND
THE STRONGER WINDS MAY OVERCOME ANY BENEFITS FROM THE INCREASED
MOISTURE IN THE AIR MASS IN TERMS OF FIRE WEATHER AND DROUGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
BY LATE SUNDAY, SHOWERS WILL BE FORMING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. WITH THE FRONT STALLING OVER THE REGION, THIS WILL BRING
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS,
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE ANYWHERE FROM 0.25
TO 1.25 INCHES OF RAINFALL, BUT IT IS LOWER IN THE AMOUNTS FOR
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW LIFTS
TO THE NORTH. MONDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DAY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT NOT MOVING THROUGH UNTIL
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST UNSTABLE IN
THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL ON TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY LOOK LIKE A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDGE FOLLOWS THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.
AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
NEAR TERM:
TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND VFR. ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS PATCHY
SHALLOW FOG IN THE NORTH, MAINLY N OF HUL. CONFIDENCE IS LOW,
BUT GIVE PQI ABOUT A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING MVFR AFTER 5Z
AND ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR. CHANCE AT FVE/CAR/HUL IS
ABOUT 20 PERCENT OF SEEING MVFR OR LOWER, AND LEFT OUT OF TAFS.
CHANCE OF FOG LATER TONIGHT FOR DOWNEAST SITES LIKE BGR/BHB IS
ABOUT 10 PERCENT.
FRIDAY...VFR. N WIND AROUND 5 KTS IN THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY,
BUT INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KTS
FROM BGR SOUTH TO BHB.
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. VARIABLE WINDS 5 KTS OR LESS.
SHORT TERM:
SATURDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS IN THE
AFTERNOON. SW WINDS 10KTS.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR. LLWS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AT
SOUTHERN TERMINALS. S-SW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY,
STRONGEST IN THE SOUTH.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MVFR OR LOWER PROBABLE AT NORTHERN
TERMINALS AND POSSIBLE AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS. LLWS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT. S-SE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE MONDAY.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL
WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR-TERM PERIOD. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY DUE TO LONG PERIOD SWELLS (UP TO 18
SECONDS) FROM HURRICANE ERIN. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD FROM 5 TO
6 FEET LATE THIS AFTERNOON, TO 10 TO 13 FEET ON FRIDAY. HIGH
SURFS AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED AT THE COAST AND
ON THE WATERS ON FRIDAY. NE WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH SCA
CRITERIA (25 KTS) ON THE OUTER WATERS ON FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL START TO SUBSIDE FRIDAY NIGHT AS HURRICANE ERIN PULLS AWAY.
HOWEVER, SEAS WILL STILL BE ABOVE SCA LEVELS BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. MINOR SPLASHOVER IS POSSIBLE WITH HIGH TIDE LATE
FRIDAY EVENING, BUT SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM: SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH DUE TO LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM
ERIN THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY, DIMINISHING BELOW SCA CRITERIA
ON SUNDAY. WINDS FOR THE MOST PART WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW GUSTS TO 25KTS ON THE
OUTER WATERS ON SUNDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
NEAR TERM...FOISY/CLARK
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM...LF
AVIATION...FOISY/CLARK/LF
MARINE...FOISY/CLARK/LF
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