438
FXUS61 KCAR 220633
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
233 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
HURRICANE ERIN TRACKS WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA INTO
THE OPEN ATLANTIC. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN CROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, AS ITS PARENT LOW PASSES WELL TO THE
NORTH. THIS LOW THEN SLOWLY EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES ON
TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING A MOSTLY SUNNY AND
WARM DAY TODAY WITH INLAND HIGHS APPROACHING 80. THE AIR WILL BE
TRANQUIL EXCEPT FOR A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE ALONG THE COAST ON
THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF HURRICANE ERIN WHICH WILL BE PASSING OUT TO
SEA AROUND 400 MILES SOUTH OF OUR COAST. LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THE
HURRICANE WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 12 FT OFF OUR COAST TODAY WITH A
PERIOD OF AROUND 17 SECONDS.
REFER TO THE LATEST PRODUCTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ON HURRICANE ERIN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING A CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT, AND A BIT MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WILL LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. ISOLATED PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE
AT NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTH OF OUR REGION WILL COMBINE WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM ON SATURDAY TO LIFT A WARM FRONT NORTH OF
THE AREA. MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THIS FRONT MAY BRING A STRAY
SHOWER TO SOME FAR NORTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, SATURDAY
WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTH AND MOSTLY SUNNY SOUTH AS
HIGHS REACH THE LOW 80S IN SOME CENTRAL AREAS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
THE AXIS OF A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE EXITS TO THE EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT, AND CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EXIT INTO THE EASTERN MARITIMES
ON SUNDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY WITH SOME INCREASE IN
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING ON
ANY PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
SUPPORT THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE ECMWF AND CMC - SO HAVE LIMITED
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER FAR WESTERN ZONES LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A PASSING 30-35KT LOW LEVEL JET SUNDAY AFTERNOON
COULD BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY OVER
DOWNEAST MAINE. THIS COULD CAUSE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
THE NORTH AND NEAR NORMAL ELSEWHERE.
A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE EASTERN US
SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS HELPING TO USHER IT
IN. THE PASSING SHORTWAVE COUPLED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENING TO 35-40KT AS IT TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE, SHOULD HELP SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM NW TO
SE SUNDAY NIGHT, MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN DOWNEAST MAINE,WHICH MAY REMAIN
DRY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE REGION REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS OF A FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASING TO AROUND
1.5 INCHES AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
WPC HAS THE NORTH WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON
MONDAY, SO WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF THE FLOOD THREAT IN THE
HWO.
THE FIRST PUSH OF COOLER AIR ALOFT COMES IN ON TUESDAY WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH, ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF
THE FULL LATITUDE TROUGH, PASSING. THIS COULD BRING SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THERE COULD BE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILTY FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDER AS WELL IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH.
THE REGION IS JUST UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY NIGHT, IN BETWEEN
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS, AND OTHER THAN POSSIBLY SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY EVENING, IT SHOULD BE DRY.
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES ON WEDNESDAY,
WITH DRIER LOW LEVELS, SHOWERS SHOULD BE ONLY ISOLATED IN
NATURE AND LIKELY CONFINED TO THE NORTH, CLOSEST TO THE BEST
FORCING.
WEST THEN SW FLOW SETS UP ALOFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WITH NO SHORTWAVES OF NOTE PROGGED TO BE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
THEN, IT SHOULD BE DRY. (NOTE DO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
ACROSS THE NORTH JUST IN CASE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS IS CORRECT -
BUT GIVEN THE AMPLIFIED NATURE OF THE CURRENT PATTERN, THERE
ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT DOUBTS ON THAT POINT).
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, THEN
BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
NEAR TERM:
PATCHY VALLEY FOG MAY AFFECT THE PRESQUE ISLE AIRPORT EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY, TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS VERY
LIGHT N TODAY, LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT, THEN BECOMING LIGHT S
ON SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM:
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR. LLWS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AT
SOUTHERN TERMINALS. S-SW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY,
STRONGEST IN THE SOUTH.
SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER PROBABLE AT NORTHERN
TERMINALS AND POSSIBLE AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS. LLWS POSSIBLE.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY.
TUESDAY...VFR, WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS AT MAINLY NORTHERN TERMINALS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM:
SEAS FROM HURRICANE ERIN WILL REACH 10 TO 12 FT TODAY, SUBSIDING
TO 6 TO 7 FT LATE TONIGHT THEN DOWN TO 4 FT BY LATE SATURDAY.
WINDS LIGHT NE TODAY, LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT THEN BECOMING
LIGHT S ON SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM: FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE RIGHT
AROUND SCA LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, BUT THERE IS NOT
SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE THAT THEY WILL BE AT OR ABOVE SCA LEVELS
TO WARRANT EXTENDING THE SCA INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AT THIS TIME.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN PROBABLE ON ALL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS ON MONDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS ON ALL WATERS BY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN
SO INTO TUESDAY. LONG PERIOD SWELLS COULD BUILD SEAS TO SCA
LEVELS AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
THERE IS GROWING CONCERN ABOUT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER DOWNEAST MAINE, WHICH ALREADY IS IN
DROUGHT. WIND GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON OF 25-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH RELATIVELY HUMIDITIES POSSIBLY FALLING INTO THE 30S,
WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF DOWNEAST MAINE.
FURTHER NORTH, WIND GUSTS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH, AND
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE NOT AS DRY, SO THE LEVEL OF CONCERN IS
NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS FOR DOWNEAST MAINE, BUT THERE STILL IS SOME
CONCERN.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE ERIN WILL PRODUCE HIGH
SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES INTO
SATURDAY. HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND UP TO 2 FEET OF STORM
SURGE, ALONG WITH THE HIGH SURF MAY CAUSE MINOR SPLASHOVER AT
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE FRIDAY EVENING.
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY OR COASTAL
FLOOD STATEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...BLOOMER/MALOIT
MARINE...BLOOMER/MALOIT
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