865
FXUS61 KCAR 221846
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
246 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS
HURRICANE ERIN TRACKS WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA
INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA
SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
SUNNY SKIES FOR MOST OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE FROM HURRICANE
ERIN PASSING FAR TO THE SOUTH OF MAINE. THE EXCEPTION IS AN AREA
OF CUMULUS CLOUDS ROUGHLY ALONG INTERSTATE 95. THIS IS DUE TO
SOME LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT, AND A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES NORTHERN MAINE FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE CROWN OF MAINE LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY. CLOUDS INCREASE OVER THE CROWN OF MAINE
TONIGHT, WHILE AREAS FURTHER SOUTH REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. PATCHY
FOG POSSIBLE IN VALLEYS FROM AROUND HOULTON SOUTHWARD LATE
TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS, WITH
MOST PLACES STAYING IN THE 50S. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL WARM
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S OUTSIDE OF DOWNEAST. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 70S DOWNEAST. WINDS WILL
GUST 20-25 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY. A FEW GUSTS TO 30
MPH ARE POSSIBLE NEAR BANGOR AND DOWNEAST.
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST SATURDAY
NIGHT. THINKING NBM GUIDANCE IS TOO FAST BRINGING IN POPS TO THE
AREA. MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS
COULD REACH THE NORTH WOODS AND SAINT JOHN VALLEY TOWARDS
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CONTINUED WITH THE TREND OF SLOWING DOWN ONSET OF
RAIN, AS MODELS ARE TRENDING JUST A BIT SLOWER. SUNDAY WILL
PROBABLY END UP BEING DRY FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWEST. WARM
AND BREEZY WITH SOUTH WINDS GUSTING 20-30 MPH MOST PLACES. A BIT
MUGGIER WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S. SUNDAY NIGHT,
RAIN GRADUALLY MOVES IN FROM WEST TO EAST, WITH MONDAY LOOKING
RAINY FOR MOST PLACES. TOTALS FOR THE STORM LOOK THE GREATEST IN
THE NW, AND THE LEAST FOR DOWNEAST. ABOUT A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING AN INCH IN THE N/NW, BUT ONLY ABOUT A 5 PERCENT CHANCE
OF EXCEEDING AN INCH DOWNEAST COAST WHERE THE RAIN IS NEEDED THE
MOST. THAT SAID, AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE
DOWNEAST, AND EVERY LITTLE BIT HELPS. THERE IS A LITTLE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT PASSES JUST OFFSHORE MONDAY, AND RIGHT NOW
MOST MODELS KEEP THE HEAVIER RAIN WITH THIS OFFSHORE, BUT
SOMETHING TO WATCH. COULD BE SOME EMBEDDED STORMS LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY, BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING STRONG. FOG LIKELY
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT. COULD
STILL BE SOME SHOWERS OR PERHAPS STORMS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY NEARS US FROM THE WEST, BUT
THINGS LOOK HIT AND MISS WITH CHANCE POPS. RELATIVELY QUIET
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE
NORTH, AND TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE. MODEL AGREEMENT
GOES DOWNHILL THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY ON WHETHER OR NOT WE GET
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR TONIGHT, SATURDAY, AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
BCFG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AM FROM KHUL
SOUTHWARD. VCSH POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AM FROM KPQI
NORTHWARD. VCSH POSSIBLE AGAIN AT FVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
WINDS N-NE 5-10 KTS, GUSTING 15-20 KTS THROUGH 22Z THIS EVENING.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT. S WINDS 10-15 KTS SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, GUSTING 20-25 KTS SATURDAY PM. LLWS
POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM:
SUNDAY...VFR, WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR. S WIND GUSTING TO 25
KTS.
SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER PROBABLE. LLWS POSSIBLE. S WIND
GUSTING TO 15 KTS.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY. S WIND GUSTS TO 20
KTS.
TUESDAY...VFR, WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS AT MAINLY NORTHERN TERMINALS. W WIND
GUSTING TO 20 KTS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: LONG PERIOD (17 SECONDS) SWELLS FROM HURRICANE ERIN
WILL RESULT IN SEAS UP TO 10-11 FEET THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. NE WIND GUSTS COULD REACH UP TO 25KTS AT TIMES THROUGH
THIS EVENING, MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, BUT WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 25KTS SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 5 TO 6 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS,
THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM: FINALLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT WINDS/SEAS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER, PERHAPS SMALL CRAFT SEAS AGAIN ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. MARINE FOG LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL
DOWNEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON FOR ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID 40S.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE BEEN SUSTAINED AT 10-15 MPH, WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
SATURDAY WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
SUSTAINED AT 10-15 MPH ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO
30 MPH NEAR BANGOR AND DOWNEAST, AND 20-25 MPH ELSEWHERE.
HOWEVER, THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 50S ON SATURDAY. THUS, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE
A BIT HIGHER THAN TODAY.
SUNDAY LOOKS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO SATURDAY, EXCEPT A BIT BREEZIER,
BUT ALSO A BIT MORE HUMID NEAR THE COAST.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE ERIN WILL PRODUCE HIGH
SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES INTO
SATURDAY. HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND UP TO 2 FEET OF STORM
SURGE, ALONG WITH THE HIGH SURF MAY CAUSE MINOR SPLASHOVER AT
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE FRIDAY EVENING.
THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY EVENING
FOR COASTAL DOWNEAST. NO CHANGES TO THE COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT
WITH THIS PACKAGE.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
NEAR TERM...CLARK
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...CLARK/FOISY
MARINE...CLARK/FOISY
FIRE WEATHER...CLARK/FOISY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...CLARK
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