020
FXUS61 KCAR 070812
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
412 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT STALLS OUT OVER THE GULF OF MAINE, WITH WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, AND SLOWLY EXITS TO
THE EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK COLD FRONTS CROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
IN FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
UPDATE...
ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SEE UPDATED
AVIATION SECTION BELOW.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE
REGION TODAY RESULTING IN A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
OUR AREA. WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK NORTHEAST TODAY ALONG
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY, MAINLY
FROM THE HOULTON AND POINTS SOUTH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND ONE HALF TO AROUND THREE QUARTERS
OF AN INCH. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS THE BANGOR REGION
AND DOWNEAST AREAS. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL CROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE TODAY SO COULDNT RULE
OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER THERE BUT ANY RAINFALL HERE WILL
BE NEGLIGIBLE. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO
MID 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE MOVES EAST EARLY THIS EVENING AND THIS
WILL BRING AN END TO ANY STEADIER RAINFALL BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST TOWARD THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID
40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS WEST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY
AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO DRIFT
EAST DURING MONDAY. A SUBTLE SHORT WAVE IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND SOME
MOISTURE AROUND 5K FEET SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN AROOSTOOK AND HAVE INCREASE CLOUD
PERCENTAGES THERE JUST A BIT ABOVE NBM VALUES. AFTERNOON HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S NORTH AND MID TO
UPPER 60S FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, BRINGING
DRY AND CALM CONDITIONS. CLEAR SKIES MONDAY NIGHT, ALONGSIDE
850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 4-7C, RESULTING IN SOME LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-30S, WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERNIGHT
FROST TO DEVELOP IN VALLEYS AND COLD SPOTS IN THE FAR NORTH.
PLAN ACCORDINGLY FOR ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS THAT YOU HAVE
OUTSIDE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP WITH LIGHT
WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND AMPLE RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
ON TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS IN THE AREA, WITH LIGHT UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BRINGING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER-60S TO LOW-70S. EXPECT A FEW CLOUDS TO MOVE IN ALONG
THE COASTLINE TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH PARTIALLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE. 850MB TEMPS RISE BACK TO AROUND
9-11C, SO EXPECTING LOWS IN THE 40S. VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
WEDNESDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT TO THE ATLANTIC AS
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE OVER IN CANADA MOVES EAST, PUSHING A LOW
PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH MAINE WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO THURSDAY. MOISTURE MOVES IN WITH THIS FRONT, WHICH
MAY BRING SOME RAIN TO NORTHERN MAINE. THAT BEING SAID, PWATS
STAY AROUND 1 INCH, SO NOT LOOKING AT ANY LARGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
LOW PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC COULD PUSH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
THE WATERS AND COASTAL DOWNEAST AS WELL. SHEAR SEEMS DECENT,
BUT OTHER INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE NOT NOTABLE, SO NOT
LOOKING AT SEVERE POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
BACK IN ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WITH DRY CONDITIONS. COLD FRONT
COULD MOVE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEKEND, BRINGING SOME MORE RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE REGION. MAX TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S
NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. POST-COLD FRONT, 850MB TEMPS GO
CLOSE TO 0C IN NORTHERN MAINE FRIDAY NIGHT, SO COULD POTENTIALLY
BE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FROST. OTHERWISE, LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
NEAR TERM:
KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL...PATCHY FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO
IFR/LIFR AT TIMES THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING, OTHERWISE MAINLY
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. S WIND 5 TO 10 KT TODAY, SW AROUND
5 KT TONIGHT, AND THEN W AROUND 10 KT ON MONDAY.
KBGR/KBHB...VFR/MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING, BECOMING MVFR/IFR IN
LOWERING CEILINGS AND RAIN LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR BY LATER TONIGHT
AND THEN VFR ON MONDAY. VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT, BECOMING
W TONIGHT. W WIND 10 TO 15 KT ON MONDAY.
SHORT TERM:
MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG NEAR RIVER
VALLEYS, OTHERWISE VFR. W-SW WINDS AT 5 KTS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY NIGHT.
S/SW WINDS AROUND 5-10KTS ON TUESDAY, S ON WEDNESDAY, AND NW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY–FRIDAY: MOSTLY VFR. COULD BE A POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR
WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN NORTHERN TERMINALS IN THE FAR NORTH. WINDS
FROM THE N/NW AROUND 5-10KTS. GUSTS UP TO 20KTS POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS
THROUGH MONDAY.
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA IN THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SEAS GENERALLY 3 FT OR BELOW OVER ALL WATERS.
POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS 5-10 KTS SHIFT W TO N ON MONDAY NIGHT, AND MOVE
CLOCKWISE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY. GENERALLY NE ON WEDNESDAY
AROUND 5-10 KTS.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...TWD
SHORT TERM...BRENNAN
LONG TERM...BRENNAN
AVIATION...TWD/BRENNAN
MARINE...TWD/BRENNAN
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