629
FXUS61 KCAR 071811
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
211 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, THEN
SLOWLY EXITS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES MAINE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA
THROUGH FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
SFC LOW AND STALLED FRONT LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE THIS
AFTERNOON. RAIN HAS BROUGHT 0.25-0.50 INCHES OVER SRN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA WITH MORE RAIN STILL TO COME. GIVEN BACK EDGE ACCELERATING
TOWARD THE COAST THINK THAT STEADY RAIN WILL LIKELY CLEAR THE
BANGOR REGION BY 18Z AND MOST OF DOWNEAST AROUND 21Z.
AT THE SAME TIME A SFC TROF IS MOVING TWD THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL QUEBEC. THIS IS BRINGING DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS TWD THE AREA AND HAVE INCLUDE SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC POPS THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTH AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SUNSET. AS
THIS TROUGH PUSHES THRU THE AREA EXPECT THAT DWPTS AND TEMPS WILL
DROP AS SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL-MIXED
OUT OF THE WEST BUT MINS WILL DIP INTO THE 40S ALMOST EVERYWHERE
TONIGHT.
SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED MONDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS BELOW NORMAL AS H8
TEMPS REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST
AROUND 10MPH, GUSTING TO 15 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON.
AS SFC HIGH CRESTS OVER THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND H8 TEMPS DROP EVEN
FURTHER RADN/L COOLING CONDITIONS SET UP. VALLEYS WILL LIKELY
DECOUPLE WITH MINS ACRS THE NORTH DOWN INTO THE 30S, DEEPER VALLEYS
WILL POSSIBLY DROP BELOW FREEZING. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
THAT NOTORIOUSLY COLDER LOCATIONS MAY DIP INTO THE 20S. FROST
ADVISORIES LIKELY TO BE NEEDED FOR NORTHERN AREAS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE REGION IS UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WITH DRY LOW LEVELS AND NO SHORTWAVES OF NOTE PROGGED TO BE EMBEDDED
IN THIS FLOW, IT SHOULD BE DRY. THERE SHOULD BE MINIMAL CLOUD COVER
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL, THEN SOME INCREASING HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD BRING SOME CIRRUS ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, AND HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY NEAR NORMAL.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
A NORTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW TRACKS FROM NORTHWESTERN QUEBEC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO AROUND GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE BY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE EXACT STRENGTH, TRACK AND
TIMING OF THE LOW AND HENCE ON THE TIMING, LOCATION AND COVERAGE
OF ANY POTENTIAL SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE AS
IT PASSES. FOR NOW HAVE LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS
MAINLY AROOSTOOK COUNTY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
HOWEVER SHOWERS ALL THE WAY INTO DOWNEAST MAINE CANNOT BE RULED
OUT, NOR ANY SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT THOSE
TWO IDEAS ARE IN A MINORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
NORTHERN STREAM RIDGING BUILDS IN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN
EXITS TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. OTHER THAN A VERY LOW CHANCE OF
SOME STILL LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE ON
FRIDAY, IT SHOULD BE DRY DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
MODELS THEN DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF ANOTHER CLOSED LOW FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND NEXT SUNDAY. WITH SOME KEEPING THIS FEATURE
WELL TO THE WEST, OTHERS WELL TO THE NORTH AND STILL OTHERS
BRINING IT FAIRLY CLOSE BY. FOR NOW, HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THIS TIME FRAME FOR THE RISK OF SOME
SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN BELOW
NORMAL THURSDAY-SATURDAY, THEN NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. NOTE THE CAVEAT THAT THERE IS MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN
NORMAL IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY GIVEN THE WIDE MODEL SPREAD.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
NEAR TERM: DOWNEAST TERMINALS WILL VARY BETWEEN IFR/MVFR THE
FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE FORECAST. RAIN WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA AFTER 21Z WITH BGR IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER 01Z. BHB IMPROVES
BRIEFLY TO MVFR BEFORE DROPPING TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS BETWEEN
02Z AND 07Z TONIGHT. AS SURFACE FRONT MOVES THROUGH CONDITIONS
WILL THEN IMPROVE TO VFR.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AT HUL AND PQI THROUGH 20Z WITH IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR AFTER THIS TIME. CANNOT RULE OUT MVFR FURTHER NORTH AT CAR AND
FVE BUT VFR EXPECTED THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME TONIGHT.
VFR AT ALL TERMINALS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM:
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: VFR, WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF MVFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE WITH VALLEY FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING/LATE AT NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: VFR, WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS. NW-N WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE
THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY. VFR. N-NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST TONIGHT AND MONDAY,
BECOMING NW MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-2 FEET ON THE
INTRACOASTAL AND 2-3 FEET OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
SHORT TERM: A LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WILL LIMIT
WINDS TO 10 KT OR LESS TUESDAY THOUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THE
GRADIENT SHOULD TIGHTEN SOME LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY,
WITH WINDS UP TO 15-20 KT POSSIBLE. WINDS SHOULD THEN RETURN TO
BEING 10 KT OR LESS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SEAS SHOULD BE 3
FT OR LESS TUESDAY-SATURDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...BUSTER
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...BUSTER/MALOIT
MARINE...BUSTER/MALOIT
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