482
FXUS61 KCAR 081808
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
208 PM EDT MON SEP 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN SLOWLY
EXITS INTO THE SOUTHERN MARITIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES WEDNESDAY EVENING, THEN SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS DOWN
FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN SLIDES SLOWLY TO
THE EAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
DIURNAL CU WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET THIS EVENING, LEAVING A CLEAR
NIGHT ON TAP FOR THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM CASSF RADAR IN
QUEBEC IS APPROACHING THE STATE BORDER AND HAVE ADDED IN SLIGHT
CHC POPS FOR REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
1028MB SFC HIGH IS LOCATED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH
VALLEY LOCATIONS DECOUPLING AS HIGH CRESTS OVER CWA. HAVE
CONTINUED FROST ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT THRU
DAYBREAK TUESDAY WITH TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S, THOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW LOCATIONS DROPPING BLO FREEZING. IN
ADDITION TO THE FROST, PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS TONIGHT.
LATEST HRRR AND RAP SHOWING THIN LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT DRIFTING INTO
THE STATE FROM THE WEST TWD 12Z TUESDAY. HAVE NOT INCLUDED SMOKE IN
FORECAST AS IT APPEARS IT WILL REMAIN ALOFT BUT HAVE GONE WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HAZE WILL DIM THE SUN JUST A TOUCH OVER
NORTHERN AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE MARITIMES TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. WITH AIRMASS
MODERATING EXPECT MINS TO DROP INTO THE LOW-MID 40S AREAWIDE BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. YET ANOTHER ROUND OF RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE REGION IS UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY. WITH NO
SHORTWAVES OF NOTE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW AND RELATIVELY DRY LOW-
MID LEVELS IT SHOULD BE DRY WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION COULD BE OVER DOWNEAST MAINE WHERE DEPENDING ON
EXACTLY HOW FAR OFFSHORE A COASTAL LOW PASSES TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THERE COULD BE SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS THERE.
ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
THE NORTH AND NEAR NORMAL ELSEWHERE.
A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN HAS ITS
AXIS CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. THIS COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
AS IT PASSES ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL ACROSS
THE NORTH AND A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE AND HIGHS ON
THURSDAY NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTH AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
NORTHERN STREAM RIDGING BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, SO
IT SHOULD BE DRY WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER.
THE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HOW FAST IT MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL END
UP DETERMINING HOW FAST ANY MID-HIGH CLOUDS BUILD IN ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE. REGARDLESS OF CLOUD COVER, IT SHOULD
REMAIN DRY.
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE HANDLING OF A
CLOSED/POTENTIALLY CUTOFF LOW LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK: ALL
AGREEING IT INITIALLY PASSES TO THE WEST. THE QUESTION IS HOW
FAR TO THE SOUTH DOES THE LOW DROP FROM NEAR JAMES BAY SATURDAY
EVENING BEFORE IT STARTS HEADING TOWARDS THE EAST. THE ECMWF HAS
THE LEAST AMOUNT OF TURNING TO THE EAST AND THE CMC THE MOST,
WITH THE GFS IN BETWEEN, BUT CLOSER TO THE ECMWF THAN THE CMC.
NOTING THAT IN GENERAL THE GFS/CMC ARE TRENDING TOWARDS THE MORE
CONSISTENT ECMWF SOLUTION, LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF SATURDAY
NIGHT-MONDAY. SO HAVE LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE
NORTH FOR NOW DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY
NIGHT, THEN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY-MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
NEAR TERM: PQI AND HUL MAY EXPERIENCE IFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG BETWEEN
08Z-12Z TUESDAY WHILE OTHER TERMINALS WILL LIKELY SEE VFR.
CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT OTHER SITES BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAF FORECAST.
VFR ON TUESDAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY
FOG IN VALLEYS MAY AFFECT PQI AND HUL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM:
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG LATE
AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE MORNING, OTHERWISE VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE
FRIDAY.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 3 FEET THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
SHORT TERM: A LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS SHOULD
LIMIT WINDS TO 10 KT OR LESS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING, WHEN
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SUSTAINED WINDS
UP TO 15 KT. SEAS SHOULD BE 3 FT OR LESS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SWELL EXPECTED.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
MEZ001>006.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...BUSTER
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...BUSTER/MALOIT
MARINE...BUSTER/MALOIT
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