488
FXUS61 KCAR 091823
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
223 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
MARITIMES WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY, THEN BEGIN TO EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
SURFACE HIGH SITTING OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING ALONG THE COAST INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. LOW PRESSURE SITTING
OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. IS BRINGING RAIN TO THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE FORM OF STRATOCU WILL DIMINISH
WITH SUNSET THIS EVENING, LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH CLEAR
SKIES OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. MINS WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 OVER MOST OF
THE AREA AS WINDS DECOUPLE. CANNOT RULE OUT ANOTHER ROUND OF RIVER
VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT, DISSIPATING BY 12Z.
HIGH CIRRUS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ONTO THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL
NORMS WITH EVERYONE IN THE 70S. SOME HIRES, MED RANGE AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING BUT THE MAJORITY KEEP THE COAST DRY. LATEST NBM GUIDANCE
INDICATES CHC POPS OVER IMMEDIATE COAST AND OUTER ISLANDS BUT
DROPPED POPS A CATEGORY WITH VERY LITTLE MEASURABLE EXPECTED IN THE
CWA WITH SFC LOW MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. WITH
WEAK INSTABILITY AND LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE, THE MOST
NOTABLE IMPACT FROM THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY BE SLIGHT INCREASE
IN NW WINDS, WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
IN THE NORTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP
AND REACH THE GROUND WILL BE SHORT LIVED. AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT, AREAS DOWNEAST WILL WARM ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR, RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BEFORE COOLER AIR IS
FINALLY USHERED IN THURSDAY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, PERSISTING
THE DRY WEATHER OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. SHOULD THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION DEVELOP QUICK
ENOUGH THURSDAY EVENING, THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RADIATIONAL
COOLING FOR TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE MID 30S OVER THE NORTH
WOODS, AND LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT COULD LEAD TO EFFECTIVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING, ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
MID 30S OVER THE NORTH WOODS, AND THE LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. IT IS
POSSIBLE FOR FROST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH IN THIS SETUP,
UNLESS UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVES IN MORE QUICKLY, WHICH
COULD LIMIT HOW EFFICIENT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS.
ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE NEW ENGLAND
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER ON THE
TIMING AND DURATION OF THIS FEATURE, WITH THE GFS REMAINING THE
QUICKEST TO MOVE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AREA. THE ECMWF HOLDS
PRECIP A LITTLE LONGER, PARTICULARLY IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS UP
THROUGH THE NORTH WOODS, WHILE THE CMC HAS COME IN WITH THE
DRIEST SOLUTION OF THE THREE GLOBAL MODELS MENTIONED HERE. THAT
SAID, ALL THESE SOLUTIONS ARE ON THE DRIER SIDE, WITH ANY RAIN
SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP ALONG THE DISTURBANCE BEING SHORT LIVED
AND MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN DUE TO A LACK OF A SUBSTANTIAL
MOISTURE SOURCE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
NEAR TERM: OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE PATCHY IFR FOG AT CAR, PQI AND HUL
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MORNING TERMINALS WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM:
THURS: VFR, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM PQI NORTHWARDS.
WINDS SHIFTING NW AT 5 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE.
THURS NIGHT: VFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. NW WINDS AROUND 5 KTS.
FRI - SAT NIGHT: VFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE, BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY ON SAT.
SUN: GENERALLY VFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS, WITH A CHANCE FOR A
SHIFT TO MVFR AT NORTHERN TERMINALS AS RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP.
WINDS SHIFTING NW TO N AT 5 TO 10 KTS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: SEAS AND WINDS CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
BETWEEN 1-3 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE EXTENDED, WITH SEAS AROUND 1
TO 3 FT AND WINDS AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...BUSTER
SHORT TERM...ASTRAUSER
LONG TERM...ASTRAUSER
AVIATION...BUSTER/ASTRAUSER
MARINE...BUSTER/ASTRAUSER
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