521
FXUS61 KCAR 101800
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
200 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY, THEN EXIT
ACROSS THE MARITIMES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXITING THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. COLD FRONT
STRETCHES FROM LOPRES OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC TO SOUTH OF JAMES BAY WITH
LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. UPR LOW CURRENTLY OVER NRN
QUEBEC WILL DROP INTO NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR OVERNIGHT WITH BEST
FORCING FOR SHOWERS REMAINING TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. CANNOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVER THE ST. JOHN VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND TWD
DAYBREAK TOMORROW. COLDER AND DRIER AIR LAGS FRONT SO EXPECTING
ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT.
MAIN CRUX OF COLD AIR MOVES IN LATE THURSDAY MORNING WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS BECOMING GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20MPH
ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPS OVER NORTHERN AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S
WHILE SOUTHERN ZONES CLIMB TO NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LWR-MID 70S.
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY EVENING BUT WILL
LIKELY SEE MOST AREAS KEEP NORTHWEST GRADIENT UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
VALLEYS OVER THE NORTHWEST MAY DECOUPLE LATE AND WITH H8 TEMPS
DROPPING INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS CANNOT RULE OUT MORE PATCHY
FROST OVER PARTS OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
QUIET WEATHER FRIDAY/SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING DRIFTS SOUTHEAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE OVER US
FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING, THEN A TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST SATURDAY. FRIDAY LOOKS SUNNY WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST BREEZE
AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS CHILLY
AGAIN, BUT HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD START STREAMING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, WHICH COULD LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL IN THE NORTH
DESPITE THE GOOD DECOUPLING AT LEAST INITIALLY IN THE EVENING.
CAN'T RULE OUT FROST FROM HOULTON SOUTH TO NEAR THE COAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED THERE WITH FEWER INCOMING HIGH
CLOUDS. UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY 2 DEGREES FROM HOULTON SOUTH, WHICH
PUTS LOWS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40. CLOSE TO FROST, BUT
MAYBE NOT QUITE. SOMETHING TO WATCH. PATCHY FOG TOO FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. SATURDAY LOOKS A LITTLE WARMER WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 AND A
SOUTH BREEZE AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TO THE EAST. PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND MOST LIKELY NO RAIN.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
FOR SUNDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE DIVES SHARPLY
SOUTH OUT OF CANADA, BUT MOST LIKELY PASSES TO OUR WEST WITH US
STAYING DRY. HOWEVER, A MINORITY (ABOUT 20-25 PERCENT) OF
MODELS/ENSEMBLES DO BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO OUR AREA DUE TO A
MORE EASTERLY TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW, OR A MORE OPEN TROUGH
RATHER THAN A CUTOFF LOW. THEN, LIKELY DRY MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY
WITH RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY LESS THAN 15 PERCENT. CAN'T RULE OUT
THE ABOVE-MENTIONED UPPER LOW STALLING TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND THEN
MOVING NORTHEAST BACK TO US AND BRINGING SHOWERS. THIS
POSSIBILITY ACCOUNTS FOR THE 10-14 PERCENT POPS. TEMPERATURES
LOOK A BIT WARMER THAN AVERAGE MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. PQI AND HUL
MAY EXPERIENCE IFR VSBYS IN BR ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 08Z AND 11Z.
FRONT MAY BRING BKN VFR CIGS TO AROOSTOOK TERMINALS THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY THURSDAY MORNING AND MAY
GUST TO 15-20KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
BGR MAY EXPERIENCE IFR VSBYS IN BR BETWEEN 08-12Z IN THE MORNING.
BHB LOOKS TO BE VFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
VFR EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM:
FRIDAY...VFR WITH NW WINDS 5 KTS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY, BUT PATCHY FOG WITH POSSIBLE IFR OR
LOWER AT ANY TAF SITES THAT GET THE FOG. LIGHT WINDS.
SATURDAY...VFR WITH S WIND 5-10 KTS.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY...VFR SHOULD BE MOST COMMON, BUT CAN'T
RULE OUT MVFR FROM TIME TO TIME. VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10
KTS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL
BE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THROUGH MONDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...BUSTER
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...BUSTER/FOISY
MARINE...BUSTER/FOISY
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