268
FXUS61 KCAR 111003
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
603 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ON SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
THROUGH ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
UPDATE...
HAVE INCLUDED EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST
WITH THIS UPDATE. HAVE ALSO UPDATED TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT, WITH LIMITED MOISTURE, WILL CROSS THE REGION
TODAY THEN EXIT ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. PATCHY, MOSTLY
RIVER VALLEY, FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. EXPECT PARTLY
SUNNY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TODAY, WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE. ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS, EXPECT A
MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING THEN A PARTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. PATCHY, MOSTLY RIVER
VALLEY, FOG ALSO POSSIBLE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S NORTH,
TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S DOWNEAST. LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40. HOWEVER, THE NORMALLY COLDEST AREAS OF NORTHWEST
MAINE COULD FALL TOWARD FREEZING. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
DOWNEAST WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S NORTH, TO AROUND 70
TO THE LOWER 70S DOWNEAST.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTING OVER THE AREA WILL BRING A TRANQUIL AND CLEAR
NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S IN SOME OF
THE COLDER NORTHERN VALLEYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE
EAST ON SATURDAY ALLOWING A RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE TO USHER IN
SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR. THIS WILL BRING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY SOUTH AND A
PARTLY SUNNY DAY NORTH WITH NEAR SEASONABLE HIGHS AROUND 70.
OUR FOCUS SATURDAY NIGHT TURNS TO AN UPPER LOW DROPPING DOWN FROM
THE NORTH. THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE VARIOUS
FORECAST MODELS HANDLE THIS LOW. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE JUST SLIDES
THE LOW OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, SOME OF THE MODELS CARRY THE
LOW OVER US OR OFF TO OUR WEST. THESE LATTER SOLUTIONS MAY OFFER A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA. OTHERWISE,
SUNDAY WILL JUST TURN OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD DOWN FROM
THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING SOME CLEARING.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND THEN SLOWLY DROP
SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY. UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST
WILL BRING MILD DAYS WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOW 70S AND HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK
UPPER LOW SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL
BRING A CONTINUATION OF DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. A COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH AT
THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE A MAINLY
DRY FRONT WITH ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS.
AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH ANY PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING, THEN AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TODAY. NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS 5
TO 10 KNOTS, INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS TODAY. NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
TONIGHT. NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS, BECOMING VARIABLE
FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM:
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR, WITH THE POSSIBLE LOCALIZED EXCEPTION OF SOME
VALLEY FOG, MOST LIKELY IN PRESQUE ISLE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND.
SATURDAY...VFR. LIGHT S WIND.
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR, EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FOG/LOW STRATUS
OVER SOUTHERN SITES. LIGHT S WIND.
SUNDAY...VFR. LIGHT S WIND BECOMING N.
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT N WIND.
MONDAY...VFR. LIGHT NW WIND.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM:
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SEAS AROUND 2 FT FOR THE REST OF THIS
WEEK, THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE
GOOD.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...NORCROSS/BLOOMER
MARINE...NORCROSS/BLOOMER
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