480
FXUS61 KCAR 061033
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
633 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH TODAY THEN MOVES EAST
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY,
CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY THEN SLIDES TO
OUR SOUTH ON FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
630 AM UPDATE..
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES
OVER THE CWA. SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING INTO NRN AREAS THIS
MORNING BUT EXPECT ZERO IMPACT ON TEMPS. HAVE REMOVED FOG FROM
SOUTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING BUT NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED WITH THE
UPDATE.
PREV DISCUSSION BLO...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG RIDGING
OVER THE AREA AND SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE RIDGE TO BRING SUNSHINE
AND AN EXCEPTIONALLY WARM DAY TODAY. HIGHS WILL REACH MID-
SUMMER LIKE WARMTH IN THE LOW TO MID 80S INLAND.
TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER BALMY NIGHT UNDER THE GLOW OF THE HARVEST
MOON. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE SOUTH AND A COLD FRONT
BEGINNING TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MAINTAIN A
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE
LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S. THE PENOBSCOT AND MATTAWAMKEAG VALLEYS
MAY HAVE LOWS CLOSER TO 50 WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL TRY TO
DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER EXCEPTIONALLY WARM DAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGHS WELL INLAND WILL APPROACH 80 WITH A
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE CONTINUING. SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND A
FEW PLACES MAY HAVE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. THE NAM CONTINUES TO
SHOW CAPE OVER 400 J/KG WHILE THE GFS INDICATES THAT CAPPING WILL BE
TOO GREAT TO PRODUCE CAPE. EVEN WITH MARGINAL CAPE, THE STRONG
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPAWN SOME
CONVECTION ALONG OUR NORTHWESTERN BORDER.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING NW MAINE TUESDAY EVENING PUSHING THRU
MOST OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SLGT CHC FOR THUNDER OVER THE
NORTHWEST BEFORE INSTABILITY WANES AFTER LATE EVENING. BULK OF THE
RAINFALL LOOKS TO OCCUR NORTH OF KATAHDIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH
AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.25-0.50 INCHES FALLING THRU 06Z. AS THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH EXPECT THE BEST FORCING TO SHIFT SOUTH AS MOST OF THE
AREA WILL BE IN LFQ OF UPR JET. OVERALL RAIN TOTALS DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS RANGE FROM AROUND 0.20" OVER FAR SERN ZONES, TO 0.75-
0.90 INCHES FROM THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND POINTS NORTH AND EAST.
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY, FRONT WILL BE LOCATED OVER INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH
6-HR AMOUNTS POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF 0.50 INCHES IN THE MORNING. TEMPS
OVER NRN ZONES WILL RISE FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN THE MORNING BEFORE
FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. NW WINDS WILL GUST ACRS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON TO NEAR 25 MPH. ALL TOLD, RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE CWA WILL AVERAGE AROUND AN INCH FOR THE EVENT THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. NOT A DROUGHT BUSTER BY ANY STRETCH OF THE IMAGINATION
BUT CERTAINLY BENEFICIAL, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH.
SKIES WILL CLEAR WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING FROPA HOWEVER PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STILL KEEP AIRMASS WELL-MIXED, WITH NW WINDS
CONTINUING TO GUST. WITH H8 TMPS DROPPING TWD -5C MOST AREAS DROP
INTO THE 30S WITH NORTH WOODS BELOW FREEZING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ON THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE FRIDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS MODERATING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE TEMPS DROP INTO THE 20S OVER A GOOD
CHUNK OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH 50TH PERCENTILE OF NBM 2-5
DEGREES LOWER THAN IT/S DETERMINISTIC COUNTERPART. DEPENDING ON
LOCATION OF HIGH CENTER MAY NEED TO LOWER MINS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH GROWING SEASON STILL "ACTIVE" FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND
THE COAST UNTIL OCTOBER 21ST.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY AND THIS EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT IFR
RESTRICTIONS FOR DOWNEAST TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME, OTHER THAN TO INCLUDE SCT005 AT BHB
AFTER 09Z.
TUESDAY...POSSIBLY IFR BGR AND BHB DURING THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE, VFR, DROPPING TO MVFR NORTH LATE. SW WIND 5 TO 10 KT
INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT GUSTS 20.
SHORT TERM:
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. SW 5-10KTS BECOMING NW.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN DOWNEAST TERMINALS, WITH AROOSTOOK
TERMINALS IMPROVING TO VFR. NW 5-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. NW 5-15KTS, GUSTS TO 25KTS THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR. LIGHT W WINDS BECOMING SW 5-10KTS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM:
WIND AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA TODAY, TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. SW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH 25 KT IN GUSTS AND SEAS
BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT LATE TUESDAY. HUMID AIR OVER THE COLDER
WATERS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME MIST AND PATCHY FOG THROUGH
TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM: SEAS AND WIND GUSTS AOA SMALL CRAFT LEVELS OVER
THE OUTER WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. SEAS DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG WITH WINDS. FROPA WILL BRING NW WINDS TO THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS APPROACHING MARGINAL
CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5FT
WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH WINDS BELOW SCA
LEVELS THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY WITH RECORD WARMTH. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 25 TO 40 PERCENT IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE, LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN
COMBINED WITH THE RECENT DRY WEATHER.
A WETTING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH
RAINFALL TOTALS OF UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED MONDAY/TUESDAY
AFTERNOONS. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY SHOULD SEE A
RETURN OF DRY AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS.
CLIMATE
CARIBOU SET A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE YESTERDAY, SUNDAY OCTOBER
5TH, OF 81 DEGREES. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 77 SET IN 1946 AND
2005. THIS IS ONLY THE SECOND OCTOBER DAY REACHING 80 DEGREES OR
WARMER DURING THE PERIOD OF RECORD, WHICH DATES BACK TO 1939.
THE OTHER DAY WAS OCTOBER 9TH, 2011, WHEN THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
WAS 82 DEGREES.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY OCTOBER 6TH:
LOCATION.....RECORD HIGH/YEAR...FORECAST HIGH
CARIBOU 74/1946 82
BANGOR 84/1946 85
MILLINOCKET 82/1946 85
HOULTON 80/1946 84
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY OCTOBER 7TH:
LOCATION.....RECORD HIGH/YEAR...FORECAST HIGH
CARIBOU 76/2016 80
BANGOR 84/1946 77
MILLINOCKET 81/1946 80
HOULTON 76/2016 80
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...MB/21
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...MB/21
MARINE...MB/21
FIRE WEATHER...MB/21
CLIMATE...21
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page