611
FXUS61 KCAR 081848
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
248 PM EDT WED OCT 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
SLIDE SOUTH OF OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTH ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE NORTH.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR SOUTHEAST, MOVING OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC, AS RAIN SHOWERS BEGIN TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE DOWNEAST
REGION. RAIN TOTALS TODAY RANGING FROM ABOUT HALF AN INCH TO AN
INCH AND A QUARTER THROUGHOUT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE MID-WEST BUILDS IN NEW ENGLAND, WITH COLD AND
DRY AIR SETTLING OVER THE AREA. PARTIALLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST
SKIES. WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST WHICH WILL BE GUSTY DURING THE
EVENING INTO TOMORROW. SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT, WITH
SOME LOWER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 30S IN THE NORTH, AND
UPPER-30S DOWNEAST. NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE
DROP, HOWEVER, SINCE DECOUPLING WILL PROBABLY BE MINIMIZED FROM
RATHER CONSTANT WINDS ALL NIGHT.
TOMORROW, HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION, WITH
SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT. COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW,
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-40S IN THE NORTH AND LOW-50S DOWNEAST.
WINDS GO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH CLEAR SKIES AND COOL 850MB
TEMPS. AS A RESULT, EXPECTING A GOOD SET UP FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING, AS TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S IN THE NORTH, AND
LOW-30S DOWNEAST. FREEZE WATCH OUT FOR DOWNEAST AND BANGOR
REGION ZONES STILL IN GROWING SEASON. TAKE PRECAUTION FOR
SENSITIVE VEGETATION AND PIPES.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY,
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES PERSISTING. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO REBOUND SOME AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY, WITH HIGHS
LIFTING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SITTING AROUND 1030 MB REMAINS IN
PLACE, AND WITH CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES, SURFACE DECOUPLING WILL
LEAD TO ANOTHER EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FROST IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL AREAS ASIDE FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ON
SATURDAY, CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER PERSISTENT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO LIFT BACK INTO THE LOWER
60S. DRY WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
GRADUALLY REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW STRONG THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN INTO THIS TIME. EVEN WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE, THE AREA OF THE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
EXPANDING THROUGH THIS TIME, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL IN OUR CWA, PARTICULARLY DOWNEAST. BUT SHOULD THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE STAY CENTERED OVER THE STATE, THE LOW AND ITS
INFLUENCE COULD REMAIN OFFSHORE. CONVERSELY, IF THE RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN MORE QUICKLY, THE DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD EVEN
CAUSE AN INCREASE IN WINDS INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR THE TIME BEING IS THAT RAIN COULD MOVE INTO THE
DOWNEAST REGION, BUT THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL REMAIN WELL TO
OUR SOUTH.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
NEAR TERM:
KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL: GENERALLY LOW END VFR THIS AFTERNOON, AS
CEILINGS BEGIN TO RISE SLOWLY THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS FROM THE
NW, AT AROUND 10 KTS, WITH GUSTS TO 15 KTS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING, AND UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
KBGR/KBHB: GENERALLY MVFR THIS AFTERNOON, AS RAIN SHOWERS AND
LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. WINDS FROM THE
NW, AT AROUND 10 KTS, WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
AND DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. CEILINGS LIFT GRADUALLY THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING.
SHORT TERM:
FRI - SUN: VFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. WINDS GENERALLY W AROUND 5
TO 10 KTS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE EACH NIGHT.
MON: VFR AT NORTHERN TERMINALS, WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR
SOUTH OF MLT IN RAIN. GREAT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN HOW FAR NORTH
THIS SYSTEM WILL MAKE IT AT THIS TIME. NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS,
POTENTIALLY HIGHER AT DOWNEAST TERMINALS DEPENDING ON STORM
TRACK.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP THIS EVENING THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING FOR THE OUTER WATERS DUE TO SEAS AROUND 5-6 FT
AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. INTER-COASTALS FALL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT STILL POSSIBLE. WINDS
FROM THE SW. RAIN MOVES OVER WATERS THIS EVENING, AND CLEARS
OUT BY TOMORROW.
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. SEAS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSES TO THE SOUTH.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...FREEZE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
MEZ015>017-029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
NEAR TERM...ASB
SHORT TERM...AES
LONG TERM...AES
AVIATION...ASB/AES
MARINE...ASB/AES
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