054
FXUS61 KCAR 090559
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
159 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN
SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
TODAY...
COOLEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON SO FAR IS IN PLACE. EARLY THIS
MORNING, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE IN PLACE WITH NO PRECIPITATION.
THERE IS STILL A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE WITH A NW
BREEZE 10-15 MPH. FOR TODAY, HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S
NORTH AND MID 50S DOWNEAST. IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY FROM THE
NORTHWEST. EXPECT CUMULUS FIELD TO INCREASE A BIT BEGINNING LATE
THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH, WHERE SKIES SHOULD BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. ADDED IN ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTH, AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SQUEAK
OUT A COUPLE LIGHT SHOWERS.
TONIGHT...
PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES, ANY REMAINING CUMULUS DISSIPATE,
AND WE ARE LOOKING FOR A COLD NIGHT. ISSUED FREEZE WARNING FOR
THE ZONES DOWNEAST WHERE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM IS STILL ACTIVE.
WENT A BIT COOLER THAN NBM, WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S.
FRIDAY...
MOSTLY SUNNY AND A BIT WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S. SOUTHWEST BREEZE 5-10 MPH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA, WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO WARM A BIT MORE INTO SATURDAY. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN LACK OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT JUST WEST OF US. JUST A FEW MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AT TIMES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY, BUT ANY
RAIN SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF US DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. SUNDAY
NIGHT ONWARD, FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES, AS THERE IS A GOOD
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW STRONG LOW PRESSURE AROUND THE
MID-ATLANTIC PROGRESSES. MOST MODELS/ENSEMBLES KEEP THE SYSTEM
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO WHERE IF RAIN DOES MAKE IT THIS FAR NORTH,
IT WOULD MORE LIKELY BE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.
RIGHT NOW, WE HAVE CHANCE POPS WHICH COVERS THIS WELL. HOWEVER,
SOME MODELS KEEP US DRY SUNDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY, WHILE A FEW
GIVE US HEAVIER RAIN. IT DEPENDS ON HOW FAR NORTH THE LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH CAN MAKE IT AND IF AN APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST CAN HELP DRAW IT NORTH CLOSER TO US.
TEND TO FAVOR THE DRIER SOLUTIONS AT THIS POINT. SOMEWHAT BREEZY
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST
MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH
AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS/RAIN, BUT GENERALLY LOOK TO BE NOT TOO FAR FROM
AVERAGE.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
NEAR TERM:
TODAY...BREEZY WITH NW WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT.
GENERALLY VFR, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR THIS MORNING MAINLY
AT FVE FROM CEILINGS, WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR AT ANY TIME BEING
ABOUT 30 PERCENT.
TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH WINDS DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.
CAN'T RULE OUT PATCHY VALLEY FOG, BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT
ANY ONE SITE TO ADD TO TAFS.
FRIDAY...VFR. W/SW WINDS 5-10 KT.
SHORT TERM:
VFR THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. CAN'T RULE OUT MVFR/IFR MAINLY
BGR/BHB LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH
RAIN/LOW CIGS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH MAKE IT. GIVE MVFR
PROBABILITY OF 30-40 PERCENT FOR MONDAY. WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KT FRIDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN NE 10-15 KTS
BGR/BHB FOR MONDAY.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO THIS
AFTERNOON, AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP TODAY. CONDITIONS
THEM IMPROVE BELOW SMALL CRAFT LATE TODAY AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT THROUGH FRIDAY. NO MARINE FOG.
SHORT TERM: SEAS OVER 10 FEET ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY, MAINLY
AS A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL RESULTING FROM LOW PRESSURE
SOUTH OF THE REGION. SMALL CRAFT WINDS ARE LIKELY (70 PERCENT
CHANCE). CAN'T RULE OUT GALES (25 PERCENT CHANCE).
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
MEZ015>017-029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-
051.
NEAR TERM...TF
SHORT TERM...TF
LONG TERM...TF
AVIATION...TF
MARINE...TF
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