856
FXUS61 KCAR 100505
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
105 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT, THEN SLIDES
SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS NORTH OF THE
AREA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE
SOUTH.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
1:05AM UPDATE...06Z TAF UPDATE. SEE BELOW.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION, WITH PARTIALLY
CLOUDY SKIES AS SOME CUMULUS SLIDES SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MAINE
FROM CANADA. WINDS GUSTY THIS EVENING, BUT BEGIN TO SETTLE BY
LATER TONIGHT. THIS, ALONGSIDE CLEAR SKIES AND COOL 850MB TEMPS,
RESULTS IN A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SET UP. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20S IN THE NORTH, AND
LOW-30S DOWNEAST. FREEZE WARNING OUT FOR DOWNEAST AND BANGOR
REGION ZONES STILL IN GROWING SEASON. TAKE PRECAUTION FOR
SENSITIVE VEGETATION AND PIPES. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IN RIVER VALLEY AREAS.
TOMORROW, HIGH PRESSURE STAYS OVER NEW ENGLAND, AND BEGINS TO
SHIFT SOUTH TO MOVE INTO THE WATERS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, WITH
WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20MPH. DAY TIME
HIGHS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 50S. CLEAR SKIES AGAIN OVERNIGHT, BUT
WITHOUT WEAKENING WINDS, NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN TERMS OF FOG.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-30S IN THE NORTH AND UPPER-30S TO
LOW-40S DOWNEAST.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN RIDGED ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT KEEPING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTH OF MAINE SUNDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT, BLOCKING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SUNDAY EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY, THEN A
PARTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON. ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS, EXPECT A PARTLY SUNNY
MORNING WITH CLOUDS THEN INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
LOW WILL CREEP NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE SUNDAY NIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST.
HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING THE NORTHERN EXTENT
OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW
CHANCE OF RAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT DOWNEAST. EXPECT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY/SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION MONDAY, WHILE THE
MID-ATLANTIC LOW GRADUALLY WEAKENS. UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS REGARDING
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MONDAY. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY WILL ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN NORTH, CHANCE
DOWNEAST, MONDAY. HOWEVER, STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE COULD LIMIT THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD TOWARD THE DOWNEAST COAST
KEEPING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY. HIGH SURF AND RIP
CURRENTS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEAST TUESDAY,
WHILE THE WEAKENING MID-ATLANTIC SYSTEM MOVES EAST AND A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES. ALOFT, AN UPPER LEVEL TROF ALSO BEGINS
TO SLOWLY APPROACH TUESDAY. MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC SYSTEM COULD BE DRAWN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROF AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS REGARDING SHOWER CHANCES TUESDAY. DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY, WILL ONLY KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TUESDAY ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE UPPER TROF
SLOWLY APPROACHES WEDNESDAY WHILE THE REMNANTS OF THE COLD FRONT
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING MOSTLY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A
DISTURBANCE COULD MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER TROF THURSDAY KEEPING
MOSTLY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
NEAR TERM: 06Z TAF UPDATE...LOW CONFIDENCE IN BCFG BETWEEN
09-12Z THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR THROUGH TODAY WITH SKC
BECOMING FEW200-250 TODAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING
BECOMING SW THIS AFTERNOON 5-10KT. TONIGHT, VFR AND ONCE AGAIN
LOW CONFIDENCE IN BCFG 09-12Z AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING. OTHERWISE
VFR THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRIDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM:
SATURDAY...VFR. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS, BECOMING
VARIABLE 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
SATURDAY NIGHT...VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH ANY PATCHY FOG LATE.
OTHERWISE, VFR. VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS, BECOMING
NORTHEAST.
SUNDAY...VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH ANY PATCHY FOG EARLY.
OTHERWISE, VFR. EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE OF RAIN LATE
DOWNEAST. EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...VFR NORTH WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. VFR/MVFR DOWNEAST WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN. EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
NORTHEAST/NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: SEAS AND WINDS FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON. FEW GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE
OVER THE OUTER WATERS, QUICKLY RELAXING THIS EVENING. SEAS AT OR
BELOW 4FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS, AND AT OR BELOW 3 FT OVER THE
INTER-COASTALS. WINDS FROM THE NW, SHIFTING TO THE SW BY
TOMORROW MORNING.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. SWELLS GENERATED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC SYSTEM
SHOULD BEGIN TO REACH THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH SEAS
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS ALSO INCREASE TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT. SWELL GENERATED FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL SEAS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
SHOULD PERSIST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ015>017-029-
030.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...ASB/JS
SHORT TERM...CN
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...ASB/JS/CN
MARINE...ASB/JS/CN
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