999
FXUS61 KCAR 101126
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
726 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH OF THE STATE TODAY. A NEW HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM QUEBEC ON SATURDAY
THEN SLIDES INTO THE MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTHEAST ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AND THEN TRACKS
SOUTH OF MAINE ON TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
730 AM UPDATE
SEE UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A CHILLY START TO THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD FROST AND
TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE 20S AND 30S WITH LIGHT WINDS. CLEAR
SKIES THIS MORNING AND MOST LOCATIONS DECOUPLING BUT A FEW AREAS
MAY KEEP WINDS UP JUST ENOUGH TO PREVENT DECOUPLING. A FREEZE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8AM FOR THE DOWNEAST AND
BANGOR REGION WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM REMAINS ACTIVE.
TODAY, 1033MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SE OVER CAPE COD
THIS MORNING AND SOUTH OF GEORGES BANK THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL TURN SW THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY 5-15MPH AND EXPECTING
MIXING UP TO 900MB BASED ON HI-RES MODELED SOUNDINGS. GIVEN THIS
MIXING WILL GO WITH LOWERING THE DEW POINTS A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NBM. THIS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON MINIMUM RHS FALLING BACK
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30 PERCENT RANGE WHICH IS A CONCERN WITH
ONGOING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. A LOT OF THE LEAF
LITTER THAT HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY
DRY OUT BUT THANKFULLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY. HIGHS TOP OUT
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S NORTH, UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F FOR THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO DOWNEAST COAST.
TONIGHT, THE SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS TO AROUND 1029MB AND DRIFTS E
OF GEORGES BANK OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC WHILE A WEAK 500MB TROF
PASSES NORTH OF THE STATE TONIGHT INTO THE MARITIMES. EXPECTING
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT WITH WEAK LIGHT SW WINDS BECOMING
CALM IN SPOTS. TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY WARMER WILL DROP
BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR MOST CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS
RESULTING IN AREAS OF FROST AGAIN. WIND DIRECTION WILL KEEP THE
DOWNEAST COAST MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40F. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY OVER THE RIVER VALLEYS AND
WARMER LAKES/PONDS.
SATURDAY WILL FEATURE ANOTHER DRY AND SUNNY DAY AS WE ARE
BETWEEN TWO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURES, ONE IN QUEBEC AND THE OTHER
SE OF NOVA SCOTIA. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY 5-10MPH AND
AFTERNOON RHS FALLING INTO THE 35-45 PERCENT RANGE. THEN
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
SATURDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE
WHILE THE 500MB UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DRIFT OVER WESTERN NEW YORK.
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SLOWLY DRIFTS UP THE COAST. WINDS SLOWLY SHIFT TO N-NNE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 5MPH AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE THE SKY REMAINS CLEAR AND DECOUPLING TAKES PLACE.
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS, BANGOR REGION
INTO THE DOWNEAST.
SUNDAY THE SURFACE HIGH STRENGTHENS TO AROUND 1033MB OVER THE
MARITIMES AND IN FULL CONTROL OF THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES AS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS
ALOFT OVER THE LOW WITH THE 500MB TROF IN THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. A SQUEEZE PLAY IS UNDERWAY OVER THE AREA WITH TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN MAINE. E-NE WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE
DAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS DOWNEAST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
BY LATE DAY. SKIES WILL START SUNNY AND BECOME PARTLY SUNNY BY
LATE DAY. HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F NORTH AND
LOW 60S SOUTH.
A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY SUNDAY NIGHT BETWEEN GFS, ECMWF AND
CANADIAN ALONG WITH MANY OTHER OPERATIONAL RUNS. THIS IS DUE TO
THE STRENGTH OF THE BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES.
NBM SEEMS TO BE HANDLING A DECENT BLEND ON THINGS WITH A MOSTLY
CLOUDY NIGHT, COOL NORTH IN THE 30S WITH 40S ELSEWHERE. A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS DEVELOPS MAINLY CONFINED TO FAR SW ZONES OVERNIGHT AS
MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION MONDAY,
WHILE THE MID-ATLANTIC LOW GRADUALLY WEAKENS. UNCERTAINTY
PERSISTS REGARDING THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD MONDAY. DUE TO THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY WILL ONLY HAVE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH, CHANCE DOWNEAST, MONDAY.
HOWEVER, STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE COULD LIMIT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE SHIELD TOWARD THE DOWNEAST COAST KEEPING MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA DRY. HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY ALONG
THE DOWNEAST COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE NORTHEAST TUESDAY, WHILE THE WEAKENING MID-ATLANTIC
SYSTEM MOVES EAST AND A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES. ALOFT, AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF ALSO BEGINS TO SLOWLY APPROACH TUESDAY.
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC SYSTEM COULD BE
DRAWN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER
TROF AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT. UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS REGARDING
SHOWER CHANCES TUESDAY. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY, WILL ONLY KEEP
A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
THE UPPER TROF SLOWLY APPROACHES WEDNESDAY WHILE THE REMNANTS
OF THE COLD FRONT REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING MOSTLY/PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. A DISTURBANCE COULD MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER TROF THURSDAY
KEEPING MOSTLY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL LEVEL
TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY WITH FEW200-250 TODAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING SW THIS AFTERNOON 5-10KT. FEW GUSTS
AROUND 15-20 KTS POSSIBLE. TONIGHT, VFR AND ONCE AGAIN LOW
CONFIDENCE IN BCFG 09-12Z AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY WILL BE VFR.
SHORT TERM:
SATURDAY NIGHT...VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH ANY PATCHY FOG LATE.
OTHERWISE, VFR. VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS, BECOMING NE.
SUNDAY...VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH ANY PATCHY FOG EARLY.
OTHERWISE, VFR. E/NE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE OF RAIN LATE
DOWNEAST. E/NE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...VFR NORTH WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. VFR/MVFR DOWNEAST WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN. E/NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. LLWS POSSIBLE AT BHB.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
NE/N WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. SW
WINDS GENERALLY 10-20KT. SEAS 1-2FT TODAY BECOMING 2-3FT
TOMORROW.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. SWELLS GENERATED FROM THE MID ATLANTIC SYSTEM
SHOULD BEGIN TO REACH THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH SEAS
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS ALSO INCREASE TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT. SWELL GENERATED FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL SEAS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
SHOULD PERSIST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WINDS FALL BELOW SCA ON TUESDAY BUT SWELLS
REMAIN WELL INTO SCA CRITERIA INTO MID NEXT WEEK.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ015>017-029-
030.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...ASB/JS
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...ASB/JS/JS
MARINE...ASB/JS/JS
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