387
FXUS61 KCAR 111123
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
723 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY AS ANOTHER HIGH
BUILDS IN NORTH OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE KEEPING A MID ATLANTIC LOW SOUTH OF
THE AREA.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
BEFORE DAYBREAK...HIGH CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK
THROUGH THE 30S AND EVEN SOME 20S. THERE ARE PLENTY OF LOCATIONS
WHERE THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. WINDS
ARE GENERALLY LIGHT BUT FULL DECOUPLING IS BEING PREVENTED IN
SEVERAL LOCATIONS. EXPECT A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING.
TODAY A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
WHILE A NEW STRENGTHENING HIGH APPROACHES IN WEST-CENTRAL
QUEBEC. A 500MB TROF IS DIGGING DOWN THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES STATES PUTTING MAINE WELL WITHIN THE UPPER RIDGE. INTIALLY
LIGHT W-SW WINDS TODAY WILL SHIFT W-NW AROUND MIDDAY AS A WEAK
MID LEVEL TROF PUSHES THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA. WINDS MAY AT
TIMES GUST 10-15MPH AFTER WINDS SHIFT W-NW BUT SOUTHERN AREAS
WILL UNLIKELY SEE MUCH OF A WIND SHIFT. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE
WARMER IN THE LOW 60S NORTH, MID 60S FOR THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS,
BANGOR REGION AND DOWNEAST. EXPECTING DEW POINTS TO ONCE AGAIN
BE DRIER THAN NBM GUIDANCE GIVEN THE MIXING HEIGHTS REACHING UP
TO 875MB. AFTERNOON RHS FALLING INTO THE 38-45 PERCENT RANGE FOR
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO BAXTER REGION EASTWARD TO THE NEW
BRUNSWICK BORDER. NOT A OVERALL LARGE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN BUT
LOWER RHS, ELEVATED WINDS AND ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS WITH
LEAF LITTER NEEDS TO BE WATCHED.
TONIGHT, THE 500MB MOSTLY CUTOFF LOW DRIFTS SE TO NEAR
BINGHAMTON NY WHILE THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS OVER MAINE BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH SHIFTS EAST
TO NEAR THE GASPE PENINSULA AND STRENGTHENS TO 1034MB. EXPECT
WINDS TO GO LIGHT AND SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR AND SOME
DECOUPLING EXPECTED NORTH. TEMPERATURES DROP OUT INTO THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S AND FROST NORTH. SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WILL
SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE DISTANT EAST COAST STORM.
TEMPERATURES HERE BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40-45F RANGE.
SUNDAY BECOMES A BATTLE BETWEEN A 1034MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE WITH THE SLOW MOVING EAST COAST STORM WELL
SOUTHWEST OF US. MOISTURE TRIES TO ADVECT INTO THE SHORELINE OF
THE MIDCOAST AND PENOBSCOT BAY BY LATE DAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS BUT THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH WILL BE HARD TO OVERCOME.
EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME VIRGA BUT THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE HARD TO BEAT. HIGHS AREAWIDE TOMORROW GENERALLY
59F-64F, MOSTLY SUNNY NORTH AND PARTLY SUNNY SOUTH. E-NE WINDS
TOMORROW IN THE 5-15MPH RANGE BUT INCREASING BREEZE FOR DOWNEAST
LATE DAY.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED JUST NORTHEAST OF US, WHILE
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. NOT
MUCH CHANGES FOR THIS PERIOD OTHER THE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING A
BIT FOR DOWNEAST. THAT SAID, MODELS/ENSEMBLES OVERALL HAVE BEEN
TRENDING DRIER AND THE VAST MAJORITY OF RAIN WILL STAY SOUTH OF
THE AREA. WE ARE GOING WITH AROUND A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT DOWNEAST COAST, WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE IN
THE NORTH. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR NORTH
THE RAIN MAKES IT. THE NATURE OF THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE DISTRIBUTION
IS MOST SOLUTIONS HAVE LITTLE IF ANY RAIN, BUT THERE ARE A FEW
HIGH OUTLIERS THAT HAVE A MODERATE RAINFALL FOR DOWNEAST. OTHER
THAN THE CHANCE OF RAIN DOWNEAST, AND SOME HIGH SURF WITH A RIP
CURRENT RISK FOR THE COAST STARTING MONDAY (NO COASTAL FLOODING
EXPECTED), SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS PRETTY QUIET.
TEMPERATURES NOT TOO FAR FROM AVERAGE. FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS IN THE
NORTH, BUT BREEZY FROM THE NORTHEAST AROUND 10-15 MPH NEAR THE
COAST.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR DOWNEAST PERSISTS INTO TUESDAY, BUT AS
DISCUSSED ABOVE, LOW CONFIDENCE AND A SKEWED MODEL/ENSEMBLE
DISTRIBUTION WITH MOST SOLUTIONS HAVING US DRY BUT A FEW HAVING
MODERATE RAINFALL. HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS PERSIST INTO
TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, AN UPPER LOW DIVES DOWN FROM THE NORTH
AND WE GET INTO COOL AND BREEZY NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER THAN AVERAGE FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS AND AROUND AVERAGE FOR NIGHTTIME LOWS. COULD BE SOME
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME, PROBABLY MORE COMMON IN DAYTIME
HOURS. POPS 20-40 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AIRMASS COULD BE
COOL ENOUGH FOR A BIT OF SNOW MIXING IN WITH ANY SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT THIS IS NOT A GOOD SETUP
FOR MEASURABLE SNOW.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
NEAR TERM: TODAY GENERALLY VFR WITH SKC OR HIGH CIGS. W-SW WINDS
5-10KT THIS MORNING BECOMING W-NW MIDDAY. TONIGHT, VFR/SKC WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE WITH
THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE AT PQI AND HUL. LOWER CONFIDENCE
ELSEWHERE SO DID NOT INCLUDE IN TAF. TOMORROW, INTIALLY SKC
BECOMING VFR CIGS. WINDS E 5-10KT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 15KT AT
BGR AND BHB.
SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MVFR IS
POSSIBLE DOWNEAST BHB/BGR MONDAY TO TUESDAY DEPENDING ON HOW FAR
NORTH RAIN/LOWER CIGS MAKE IT FROM A SYSTEM WELL TO OUR NORTH,
BUT ODDS FAVOR VFR. WINDS LIGHT IN THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT TO
TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS DOWNEAST NE 5-15 KTS SUNDAY NIGHT TO
TUESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY, WINDS BECOME NW 10-15 KTS AREAWIDE.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: W-SW WINDS TODAY GENERALLY LESS THAN 15KT WITH SEAS
2-3FT. TONIGHT SEAS SUBSIDE TO 1-2FT AS WINDS GO CALM THIS
EVENING THEN SHIFTING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INCREASING LONG PERIOD SWELLS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 2-4FT BY LATE DAY AT 13 SECOND PERIODS. NE WINDS
INCREASING TO 10-20KT TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN DEVELOPS OVER THE FAR SW WATERS BY EARLY EVENING
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN PRECIPITATION DUE TO DRY AIR.
SHORT TERM: SWELLS GENERATED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO REACH THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH SEAS
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS ALSO INCREASE TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT. SWELL GENERATED FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL SEAS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH AS AROUND 10 FT, PEAKING LATE
MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS SHOULD
PERSIST MONDAY, POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. CHANCE FOR GALES IS
AROUND 20 PERCENT. WINDS MOST LIKELY BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, THOUGH SEAS WILL LIKELY STILL BE AT SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ015.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...SM/JS
SHORT TERM...TF
LONG TERM...TF
AVIATION...SM/JS/TF
MARINE...SM/JS/TF
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