095
FXUS61 KCAR 111852
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
252 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TO THE EAST TODAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN NORTH OF
THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY,
KEEPING A MID ATLANTIC LOW SOUTH OF THE AREA.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST, BUT THEN BEGIN TO
REBUILD FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING. AS THIS HIGH STRENGTHENS,
IT WILL KEEP A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING FAR TO THE SOUTH
AT BAY. THIS WILL KEEP SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND SUNNY
SKIES OVER THE AREA FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND INCREASE DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY, AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE APPROACHING LOW. WHILE
THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME MARINE IMPACTS (SEE MARINE DISCUSSION
BELOW), LAND IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL. CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE SOUTH STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON, SPREADING OVER THE ENTIRE
STATE BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL LIMIT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
FROM DROPPING QUITE AS MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT. MINIMAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN LATE IN THE PERIOD ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER MAINE THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH
SHOULD KEEP THE COASTAL LOW TO OUR SOUTH. SOME RAIN IS POSSIBLE
AS MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE EXPRESSING GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE WARM/OCCLUDED FRONT MAY MAKE IT FAR
ENOUGH NORTH TO REACH THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIPITATION REACHING CENTRAL MAINE BUT A FEW SOLUTIONS SHOW
THIS AS A POSSIBILITY. HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE THE HIGHLIGHT OF THIS STORM AS GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS BUILD
HIGH SEAS. CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING COASTAL FLOODING DUE TO THE
PARALLEL WIND DIRECTION TO THE COAST AND UNFAVORABLE TIDAL CYCLE.
ON TUESDAY, THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE EAST. WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS
STICKING AROUND.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ON TUESDAY NIGHT, A CLOSED UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE WEST WITH A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE EXPECTED TO PASS
THROUGH MAINE. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT
BUT MODELS ARE NOT CURRENTLY SUGGESTING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. ON
WEDNESDAY THE FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST AND THE UPPER LOW DIVES
SOUTH BRINGING PERSISTENT BLUSTERY NW WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE COOLEST DAY IS LIKELY TO BE
ON THURSDAY WHERE HIGHS MAY NOT GET ABOVE 50 IN INLAND AREAS. AS
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW SOME SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME
WHERE COOLER AIR ALOFT MAY FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME
INSTABILITY. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE EVEN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE NORTH WOODS DEPENDING ON HOW COOL TEMPERATURES GET
BUT DECENT MIXING DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS IS LIKELY TO PREVENT
TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO LOW.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE WESTERLY AND GUSTY TODAY, BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT, THEN
BECOMING EASTERLY TOMORROW. GUSTS WILL INCREASE IN THE
AFTERNOON, MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN TAF SITES. LIMITED CHANCE FOR
LIGHT FOG AT PQI OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MVFR IS
POSSIBLE DOWNEAST BHB/BGR MONDAY TO TUESDAY DEPENDING ON HOW FAR
NORTH RAIN/LOWER CIGS MAKE IT FROM A SYSTEM WELL TO OUR SOUTH,
BUT ODDS FAVOR VFR. WINDS LIGHT IN THE NORTH MONDAY TO TUESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS DOWNEAST NE 5-15 KTS MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY,
DECREASING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
WINDS BECOME N/NW 10-15 KTS AREAWIDE.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN CALM THROUGH TONIGHT,
THEN BEGIN INCREASING TOMORROW (SUNDAY) AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE WATERS FROM THE SOUTH SO SCA
WILL START EARLIER FOR PENOBSCOT BAY THROUGH SCHOODIC POINT.
SEAS WILL BUILD VERY GRADUALLY DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL NOT
BE ABOVE 5 FEET UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY MORNING,
SEAS WILL BE 7 TO 8 FEET ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
SHORT TERM: SWELLS GENERATED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC SYSTEM WILL
REACH THEIR PEAK MONDAY AT 8 TO 10 FT WITH WINDS GUSTING 25 TO
30 KTS, WELL WITHIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. NOT EXPECTING
GALES AT THIS TIME BUT CANNOT RULE IT OUT DEPENDING ON
UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM TRACK AND STRENGTH. WINDS AND SEAS
GRADUALLY DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS DROPPING BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS, HOWEVER, ARE
LIKELY TO DECREASE SLOWER AND MAY STILL BE 6 TO 8 FT DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. SEAS DECREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY AT
AROUND 4 TO 6 FT.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
ANZ050.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
ANZ051-052.
NEAR TERM...SM
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM...LF
AVIATION...SM/LF
MARINE...SM/LF
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