255
FXUS61 KCAR 120308
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1108 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND REMAINS IN
PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY, KEEPING A MID ATLANTIC LOW SOUTH OF THE
AREA.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF MAINE OVERNIGHT KEEPING SKIES
CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. PATCHY,
MOSTLY RIVER VALLEY, FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 TO THE MID 30S NORTH, TO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED TO ADJUST FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
AND CLOUDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO REBUILD FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.
AS THIS HIGH STRENGTHENS, IT WILL KEEP A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING FAR TO THE SOUTH AT BAY. THIS WILL KEEP SEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES AND SUNNY SKIES OVER THE AREA FOR THE MOST
PART THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY
AND INCREASE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
WITH THE APPROACHING LOW. WHILE THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME MARINE
IMPACTS (SEE MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW), LAND IMPACTS WILL BE
MINIMAL. CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH STARTING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, SPREADING OVER THE ENTIRE STATE BY SUNDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL LIMIT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING QUITE AS
MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT. MINIMAL CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE IN THE PERIOD
ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER MAINE THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH
SHOULD KEEP THE COASTAL LOW TO OUR SOUTH. SOME RAIN IS POSSIBLE
AS MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE EXPRESSING GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE WARM/OCCLUDED FRONT MAY MAKE IT FAR
ENOUGH NORTH TO REACH THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIPITATION REACHING CENTRAL MAINE BUT A FEW SOLUTIONS SHOW
THIS AS A POSSIBILITY. HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE THE HIGHLIGHT OF THIS STORM AS GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS BUILD
HIGH SEAS. CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING COASTAL FLOODING DUE TO THE
PARALLEL WIND DIRECTION TO THE COAST AND UNFAVORABLE TIDAL CYCLE.
ON TUESDAY, THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE EAST. WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS
STICKING AROUND.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ON TUESDAY NIGHT, A CLOSED UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE WEST WITH A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE EXPECTED TO PASS
THROUGH MAINE. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT
BUT MODELS ARE NOT CURRENTLY SUGGESTING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. ON
WEDNESDAY THE FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST AND THE UPPER LOW DIVES
SOUTH BRINGING PERSISTENT BLUSTERY NW WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE COOLEST DAY IS LIKELY TO BE
ON THURSDAY WHERE HIGHS MAY NOT GET ABOVE 50 IN INLAND AREAS. AS
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW SOME SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME
WHERE COOLER AIR ALOFT MAY FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME
INSTABILITY. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE EVEN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE NORTH WOODS DEPENDING ON HOW COOL TEMPERATURES GET
BUT DECENT MIXING DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS IS LIKELY TO PREVENT
TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO LOW.
AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH ANY PATCHY FOG BOTH LATE
TONIGHT AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE, VFR OVERNIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, BECOMING
EAST/NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS SUNDAY, GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE SOUTH.
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MVFR IS
POSSIBLE DOWNEAST BHB/BGR MONDAY TO TUESDAY DEPENDING ON HOW FAR
NORTH RAIN/LOWER CIGS MAKE IT FROM A SYSTEM WELL TO OUR SOUTH,
BUT ODDS FAVOR VFR. WINDS LIGHT IN THE NORTH MONDAY TO TUESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS DOWNEAST NE 5-15 KTS MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY,
DECREASING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
WINDS BECOME N/NW 10-15 KTS AREAWIDE.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
OVERNIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN INCREASING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE WATERS
FROM THE SOUTH SO SCA WILL START EARLIER FOR PENOBSCOT BAY
THROUGH SCHOODIC POINT. SEAS WILL BUILD VERY GRADUALLY DURING
THIS PERIOD AND WILL NOT BE ABOVE 5 FEET UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY
NIGHT. BY MONDAY MORNING, SEAS WILL BE 7 TO 8 FEET ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS.
SHORT TERM: SWELLS GENERATED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC SYSTEM WILL
REACH THEIR PEAK MONDAY AT 8 TO 10 FT WITH WINDS GUSTING 25 TO
30 KTS, WELL WITHIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. NOT EXPECTING
GALES AT THIS TIME BUT CANNOT RULE IT OUT DEPENDING ON
UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM TRACK AND STRENGTH. WINDS AND SEAS
GRADUALLY DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS DROPPING BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS, HOWEVER, ARE
LIKELY TO DECREASE SLOWER AND MAY STILL BE 6 TO 8 FT DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. SEAS DECREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY AT
AROUND 4 TO 6 FT.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
ANZ050.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
ANZ051-052.
NEAR TERM...CN/SM
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM...LF
AVIATION...CN/LF
MARINE...CN/SM/LF
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