707
FXUS61 KCAR 130230
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1030 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY,
WHILE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WELL TO THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTH OF MAINE OVERNIGHT,
BLOCKING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE
HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT, MOST EXTENSIVE ACROSS
DOWNEAST AREAS. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND
30 TO THE MID 30S NORTH, TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S DOWNEAST. HAVE
UPDATED TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND CLOUDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BEFORE EVENTUALLY TURNING EAST OUT
TO SEA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE STATE
OF MAINE WILL PREVENT THE SYSTEM FROM REACHING OUR AREA, INSTEAD
REMAINING FAR TO OUR SOUTH. THUS, THE MAIN CONCERNS FROM THE
SYSTEM ARE GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST/WATERS AND DANGEROUSLY
HIGH SURF WITH THE GREATEST IMPACTS EXPECTED MONDAY. A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY FOR AREAS ALONG THE COAST WILL GO INTO EFFECT FROM 8AM
MONDAY TILL 8PM TUESDAY. ON MONDAY, SEAS 4-7FT EVERY 10-12
SECONDS WILL BE CRASHING INTO THE COASTLINE ALONG WITH HIGH RIP
CURRENTS. RIP CURRENTS AND SNEAKER WAVES WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS
BEACH CONDITIONS. WAVES CRASHING AGAINST ROCKS CAN SPLASH
VIOLENTLY UPWARD AND WASH ONLOOKERS OUT TO SEA. SOME MINOR BEACH
EROSION IS POSSIBLE. OUR MESSAGING IS IF YOU PLAN TO BE ALONG
THE SHORELINE, KEEP YOUR DISTANCE FROM THE WATER, AND NEVER TURN
YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN.
WHILE THE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE LOW WILL MEAN MOST AREAS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY, SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN COASTAL AREAS,
PARTICULARLY THE BAR HARBOR REGION ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEMS WARM FRONT APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. MODELS OVERALL HAVE SHOWN A DECREASING TREND IN RAIN
POTENTIAL AND THUS HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM THE NBM. WILL HAVE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THE LOW TRACK AND STRENGTH FOR FURTHER
ADJUSTMENTS ON PRECIPITATION.
IN MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE, LITTLE IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED FROM THE COASTAL LOW. ON MONDAY, EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES IN THE NORTH AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FARTHER SOUTH WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY
FROST EXISTS MONDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
TUESDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT:
ON TUESDAY THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD
FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AND ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE HUDSON BAY MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN
QUEBEC. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM COULD BE ENOUGH FOR AN
ISOLATED SHOWER (20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE), PARTICULARLY ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LIKE THE NORTH WOODS, BUT
MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW 60S FOR MOST, WITH LOWS FALLING
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO 40S. SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL BE DECREASING
ALONG THE COAST, BUT WAVES WILL STILL POSE A THREAT TO PEOPLE
NEAR THE SHORELINE, PARTICULARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY:
A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT. INCREASING, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ACROSS THE NORTH,
BARELY REACHING 50 DEGREES. AREAS ALONG THE COAST JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY:
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING TOWARDS
THE AREA. DRY AND CONTINENTAL NORTH FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS PERIOD, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH WOODS AND CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS WITH UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT, THEN THURSDAY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. DEPENDING ON SURFACE
DEW POINTS, SOME HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS MAY SEE SNOWFLAKES MIX
IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOWS DROP INTO THE MID 30S. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY:
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AND LIKELY ALSO INTO SUNDAY
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS REASONABLE CONSENSUS AMONG ENSEMBLE
AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH EXACT TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH VARIES. WHILE MOST SCENARIOS KEEP SUNDAY
DRY, FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH COULD RESULT IN RAIN (ROUGHLY
20 PERCENT CHANCE) ACROSS WESTERN AREAS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND
LOWS IN THE 30S.
AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
NEAR TERM:
OVERNIGHT...VFR. EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS NORTH,
AROUND 10 KNOTS DOWNEAST.
MONDAY...VFR. AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON AT
KBHB/KBGR. VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS NORTH. EAST/NORTHEAST
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS DOWNEAST.
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR, BUT WITH A CHANCE (AROUND
20 PERCENT) OF MVFR FROM LOWER CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN BHB/BGR.
NE WINDS 5-10 KTS BHB/BGR, WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS NORTH.
SHORT TERM:
TUESDAY...VFR. LIGHT WINDS AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS.
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. CHANCE (40 PERCENT) OF MVFR OR LOWER
CEILINGS LATE. LIGHT NW WINDS.
WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY...MVFR/VFR. NNW WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KTS DURING THE DAY.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE
WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY EVENING. NE WINDS WILL BE
INCREASING THROUGH MONDAY WITH WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 30 KTS. THE
GREATEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE WESTERN COASTAL
WATERS WHERE A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KTS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING.
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD THROUGH TONIGHT AS WELL REACHING A
PEAK OF 8 TO 10 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND 4-8 FT OVER THE
INNER WATERS BY MID-DAY MONDAY. SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A
LONG PERIOD OF 10-12 SECONDS. WINDS DECREASE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY
TO REMAIN ELEVATED. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
TUESDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DECREASE STEADILY ON TUESDAY, BUT
REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
A SOUTHEAST SWELL WITH A PERIOD OF AROUND 10 TO 11 SECONDS
CONTINUES. SEAS WILL BE NOTABLY LOWER ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE WASHINGTON COUNTY COASTLINE, SUCH AS LUBEC, WHERE THE SWELL
WILL BE ALL OR PARTLY BLOCKED BY NOVA SCOTIA. SEAS REMAIN NEAR
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTH
WINDS INCREASE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
MEZ029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
NEAR TERM...CN/SM
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...CN/SM/MWS
MARINE...CN/SM/MWS
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