979
FXUS61 KCAR 130750
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
350 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY, WHILE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF MAINE. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
TODAY, 1030MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE GASPE PENINSULA
WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER IN MAINE. THE LARGE
NOREASTER LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DRIFT E-NE OFF THE SHORE. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS
TRYING TO WORK NE INTO MAINE BUT FIGHTING A LOT OF SUBSTANCE
THANKS TO THE HIGH. EXPECTING ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO BE CONFINED TO GYX CWA AND MAKING IT TO PENOBSCOT BAY OF
COASTAL HANCOCK COUNTY. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AREAWIDE TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. E-NE WINDS LIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTH AROUND 5-10MPH WITH SOUTHERN ZONES IN THE
10-15MPH RANGE AND SOME GUSTS DOWNEAST 20-25MPH. IT WILL BE A
DRY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS EAST TO DANFORTH AND
ALL POINTS NORTH. RHS THIS AFTERNOON FALLING INTO THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE. GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT AND LEAF LITTER WE ARE
WATCHING IT FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, BUT THANKFULLY LIGHT
WINDS.
TODAY EXPECTING RELATIVELY GOOD WEATHER ALONG THE DOWNEAST
COAST IN PLACES LIKE ACADIA NATIONAL PARK. IF ANYONE IS HEADING
TO THE COAST TO EXPERIENCE PEAK FOLIAGE OR HEADING TO THE
BEACHES WILL EXPERIENCE DANGEROUS NEARSHORE SURF. WE ARE
CONTINUING A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AREAS ALONG THE COAST TILL
8PM TUESDAY. TODAY SEAS 4-8FT EVERY 10-12 SECONDS WILL BE
CRASHING INTO THE COASTLINE ALONG WITH A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS. RIP CURRENTS AND SNEAKER WAVES WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS
BEACH CONDITIONS. WAVES CRASHING AGAINST ROCKS CAN SPLASH
VIOLENTLY UPWARD AND WASH ONLOOKERS OUT TO SEA. SOME MINOR BEACH
EROSION IS POSSIBLE. OUR MESSAGING IS IF YOU PLAN TO BE ALONG
THE SHORELINE, KEEP YOUR DISTANCE FROM THE WATER, AND NEVER TURN
YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN.
TONIGHT, OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SW ZONES AND THE
DOWNEAST COASTLINE ITS A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT SOUTH AND PARTLY
CLOUDY NORTH. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH FALL BACK INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S WITH FROST AS DECOUPLING WILL OCCUR IN MANY
SPOTS WITH CALM WINDS. FROM THE LONGFELLOW MTNS SOUTHWARD TO
THE COASTLINE EXPECTING LOW 40S. THEN ON TUESDAY A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE STATE AT 500MB ALONG WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT. WE MIGHT SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS BUT THEY WILL BE
FEW AND FAR BETWEEN WITH NO HELP TO THE DROUGHT. HIGHS TOMORROW
ONCE AGAIN UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND LIGHT WINDS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD
IN AGAIN FROM THE WEST, WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS DOWN
OVER THE STATE. THIS PATTERN WILL INCREASE NORTHERLY WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE
STATE. WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED, EXCEPT OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN WHERE GUSTS WILL REACH 20 TO 30 MPH LATER
OVER NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING SOUTHWARD DURING THIS
TIME WILL KEEP THE COASTAL LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC OFFSHORE,
AS WELL AS CONTRIBUTING SOME INSTABILITY, BRINGING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA. THESE SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SIGNIFICANT IN TERMS OF QPF, HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS MAY BE COLD ENOUGH TO BRING SNOW TO ELEVATED
TERRAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL
GRADUALLY COOL. NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S ON
TUESDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY DAYTIME HIGHS IN UPPER 40S FOR
WESTERN AREA, BUT NEAR 60 CLOSER TO THE COAST. NIGHTTIME LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT REFLECT THE COOLING TREND, REACHING AROUND 30 IN
THE WEST AND NEAR 40 ON THE COAST.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT BY
FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS WILL START A
PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, REACHING A PEAK ON SUNDAY AROUND 60 TO 65.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, THIS PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY DRY,
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY WHEN THE POSSIBILITY OF A WARM FRONT BEGINS
TO INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH WITH THIS
SYSTEM, BOTH ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT BUT ALSO HOW MUCH QPF
WILL ACTUALLY MOVE OVER RAIN. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN FALL BEGIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
DETAILS FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ARE STILL PRETTY
HAZY, BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH THIS FRONT.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
NEAR TERM: BEFORE 12Z THIS MORNING. BCFG/BR REDUCING VSBY WITH
VERY LOW LEVEL GROUND FG THIS MORNING. PQI SEEMS TO HAVE THE
LOWEST VSBY AT 1/2SM AT TIMES AND TEMPO ADDED. ELSEWHERE,
MAINLY BCFG MIGHT BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBY ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO
SUNRISE. SOUTHERN TERMS ARE VFR AND NO BR/BCFG ISSUES THANKS TO
INCREASED WINDS.
TODAY, VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH CIGS. E-NE WINDS 5-10KT NORTH
AND 10-15KT SOUTH. SOUTH TERMS MAY GUST UP TO 20KT. TONIGHT, VFR
AGAIN WITH BR/BCFG POSSIBLE AT NORTHERN TERMS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS NORTH WITH N-NE WINDS AROUND 5KT SOUTH
TERMS. VCSH POSSIBLE BGR AND BHB BUT LOW CHANCES. TUESDAY, VFR
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHIFTING N-NW AROUND 5KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON VCSH FOR ALL TERMS.
SHORT TERM:
TUES NIGHT AND WEDS...VFR. LIGHT NW WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15KTS.
WEDS NIGHT...VFR FOR SOUTHERN SITES. VFR/MVFR FOR NORTHERN
SITES BECOMING MVFR LATE. NNW WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 KTS.
THURS...VFR FOR SOUTHERN SITES. MVFR FOR NORTHERN SITES
IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. NNW WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS DURING THE DAY.
THURS NIGHT AND FRI...VFR. NNW WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS, WEAKENING ON
FRIDAY.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. NE WINDS
15-25KT AND A FEW GUSTS UP TO 35KT ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR SW
COASTAL WATERS NEAR 25NM OUT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER CLOSER TO
THE HAGUE LINE AND BAY OF FUNDY. SE LONG PERIOD SWELLS, 10-12
SECONDS, WILL BE THE HIGHEST TODAY FROM THE DISTANT COASTAL
STORM. EXPECT SEAS 6-10FT FROM THE HANCOCK COUNTY COAST OUT 25NM
WITH 4-6FT ON THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS. SEAS 5-9FT FROM THE
WASHINGTON COUNTY COAST OUT 25NM AND EAST TO THE HAGUE LINE.
FURTHER DOWNEAST NEAR THE HAGUE LINE, NEAR MACHIAS SEAL ISLAND
NORTHEAST TO WEST QUODDY HEAD EXPECT SEAS 4-8FT. TONIGHT WINDS
WILL RELAX BELOW SCA CRITERIA BUT SE SWELLS REMAIN. SEAS
GENERALLY 6-9FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS AND 4-6FT ON THE INTRA-
COASTAL WATERS. TOMORROW NE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 20KT BUT
LONG PERIOD SE SWELLS REMAIN GENERALLY 5-8FT. LOWER SWELLS EAST
NEAR THE HAGUE LINE TO WEST QUODDY HEAD AND PASSAMAQUODDY BAY.
SEA SURFACE WATER TEMPERATURE ARE IN THE 53-55F RANGE FROM THE
DOWNEAST COAST OUT 25NM AND EAST TO THE HAGUE LINE INCLUDING
PASSAMAQUODDY AND PENOBSCOT BAYS.
SHORT TERM: EXPECT A RETURN OF NORTHERLY WINDS 25 TO 30 KTS ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR GALES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY. SEAS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE
AROUND 3 TO 5 FEET, WITH THE BIGGEST WAVES WELL OFFSHORE. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN OF LONG PERIOD SWELL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, HOWEVER AT THIS TIME THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT THIS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY
FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
NEAR TERM...JS
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM...LF
AVIATION...JS/LF
MARINE...JS/LF
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