881
FXUS61 KCAR 271215
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
815 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION EARLY WEEK
WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS QUEBEC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CREEPS SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA,
STALLING OVER THE GULF OF MAINE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY
TODAY. ADDITIONALLY, A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER QUEBEC
MOVES EAST TOWARDS MAINE. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST TODAY.
SYSTEM PROVIDES AMPLE VORTICITY AND LIFT, CONTINUING PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN NORTHERN AND DOWNEAST MAINE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. VORTICITY LIFT HAS RESULTED IN SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER
THE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. AS LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT MORE
SOUTH, SO DOES RAIN, WITH SOME PERIODS OF SLIGHTLY HEAVIER RAIN
EXPECTED ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING
TIME. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS AROUND A TRACE IN THE NORTH, AND
POTENTIAL FOR UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH DOWNEAST. DAYTIME HIGHS
IN THE MID-40S, AND LOW-50S ALONG THE COAST. RELATIVELY LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS. OVERCAST OVERNIGHT, WITH GOOD RELATIVE HUMIDITY
RECOVERY, LEADING TO SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT.
SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE NORTH OF MAINE, AS LOW BEGINS TO
DEPART NOVA SCOTIA BY TUESDAY EVENING. RAIN CHANCES ONLY OVER
THE WATERS BY THAT POINT, SLOWLY TAPERING OFF AWAY AS A THE LOW
DEPARTS. PARTIALLY CLOUDY SKIES, BEFORE BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT
IN THE EVENING. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE THE LOW-50S. PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO PRESSURE SYSTEMS, ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL
JET PLACEMENT, WILL RESULT IN SOME GUSTIER WINDS DURING THE
DAY, PREDOMINANTLY DOWNEAST.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF MAINE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PATCHY, MOSTLY RIVER VALLEY, FOG IS ALSO
POSSIBLE BOTH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. HIGH PRESSURE EXITS
ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY, WHILE THE VERTICALLY STACKED
MID-ATLANTIC LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH DRAWING AN OCCLUDED FRONT
TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY WITH
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN
SHIELD COULD BEGIN TO APPROACH MOSTLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE. NEAR NORMAL, TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM SHOULD LIFT TOWARD THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT DRAWING AN OCCLUDED FRONT NORTHWARD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. RAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW AND OCCLUDED
FRONT WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
LOW WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY DRAWING THE OCCLUDED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN AREA OF RAIN WILL CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE MELISSA
COULD BE DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM, POSSIBLY HELPING ENHANCE
RAINFALL. RAINFALL COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLY ENHANCED IN THE
FAVORED OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE AREAS. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET COULD
ALSO BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE DOWNEAST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH RAIN TAPERING TO SHOWERS. RAINFALL TOTALS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ARE STILL UNCERTAIN, THOUGH A SOAKING RAIN IS
EXPECTED. THE SYSTEM REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY.
SHOWERS, MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS, WILL OCCUR
SATURDAY. SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
SYSTEM SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH SUNDAY. WILL STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS, SLIGHT CHANCE DOWNEAST, SUNDAY.
NEAR NORMAL, TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY. NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY/SUNDAY.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
NEAR TERM:
KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL: OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH ANY PATCHY FOG TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR/MVFR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY. VFR/MVFR EARLY TUESDAY THEN
VFR. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS
TODAY AND TUESDAY, AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.
KBGR/KBHB: OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. VARIABLE
CONDITIONS WITH ANY PATCHY FOG TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE, VFR/MVFR TODAY, THEN VFR TONIGHT. ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS TODAY. VFR TUESDAY. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS TODAY AND TUESDAY, AROUND 10 KNOTS
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM:
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH ANY
PATCHY FOG TUESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE, VFR. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS
5 TO 10 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN AROUND 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH ANY PATCHY FOG.
OTHERWISE, VFR. VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
THURSDAY...VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN LATE. VARIABLE WINDS 5
TO 10 KNOTS, BECOMING EAST/SOUTHEAST.
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR EARLY, LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR.
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...IFR/LIFR WITH RAIN. EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
POSSIBLE.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
DURING THE DAY TODAY. SEAS GENERALLY 3 FT OR BELOW. LIGHT WINDS
N WINDS, AT 10-15 KTS MONDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE
OVER OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BEGIN LATE
TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING, WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS, AND 25 IN THE INNER WATERS. SEAS
APPROACH 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
MUCH OF THE WATERS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE INTRA-COASTAL
WATERS, TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON ALL THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ052.
NEAR TERM...ASB
SHORT TERM...CN
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...ASB/CN
MARINE...ASB/CN
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