874
FXUS61 KCAR 271837
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
237 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION EARLY WEEK
WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS QUEBEC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY AND MOVE NORTH OF MAINE INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
A 500MB UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS STUCK NEAR NOVA SCOTIA AND
SLOWLY DRIFTING E DUE TO NEGATIVE NAO BLOCKING IN THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. IT REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH PRODUCING A BAND OF SHOWERS
ROTATING WSW FROM NEW BRUNSWICK INTO DOWNEAST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. EXPECTING SHOWERS
TO BE MAINLY CONFINED SE OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR THEN SHOWERS WILL
SLOWLY CONFINE TO THE DOWNEAST COAST OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW DRIFTS
EAST. SKIES WILL TURN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH SOME
BREAKS AND FEW DECOUPLING SPOTS TONIGHT IN THE NORTH WOODS.
EXPECTING LOWS TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S THERE WITH
LOW TO MID 30S FOR THE REST OF THE NORTH. CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO
DOWNEAST COAST EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO DIP BACK INTO THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S. TONIGHT, GRADUALLY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AND N WINDS WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY IN THE DOWNEAST
REGION TO INTERIOR DOWNEAST.
TOMORROW THE 1034MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH
IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC WHICH WILL PUSH THE 500MB LOW SLOWLY EAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GRADUALLY CLEARING TO A MORE
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY TUESDAY. N-NNE WINDS 10-15MPH WITH 20MPH GUSTS
TOMORROW ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR
50F NORTH, LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO BANGOR
REGION AND DOWNEAST COAST.
TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE HIGH SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH IN QUEBEC AND A
PIECE OF THE 500MB LOW RETROGRADES WEST OVER PENNSYLVANIA EXPECT
CLEARING AND DECOUPLING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE
MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AND LOW 30S FOR THE
SOUTHERN 1/2.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE MARITIMES
ON THURSDAY. SUNNY SKIES ON WEDNESDAY WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS LOW MOVES UP FROM THE OH VALLEY. AS
IT DOES SO, LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED WITH A VERY SLOW MOVEMENT
TO THE NORTH AND EAST. HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS FOR THURSDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIRMASS HOLDING TIGHT.
TEMPS DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE JUST ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY
UNDER SUNNY SKIES. WITH CLOUDS IN PLACE ON THURSDAY, TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL. UNDER MOCLR SKIES AND NEAR
CALM WINDS MINS WILL DROP INTO THE MID-UPR 20S WITH REMAINDER OF THE
AROUND AROUND 30 DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE MELISSA WILL LIKELY BE ENTRAINED INTO
OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW HEADING UP INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW LOOKS TO BE LOCATED OVER WRN NY/PA AT 00Z FRIDAY.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN DEEPENING SFC LOW AND STRONG HIGH
PRES OFF OF THE MARITIME. DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG RIDGE AXIS OVER
ERN AREAS IS WILL DETERMINE HOW QUICKLY RAIN CAN MOVE IN OVER ENTIRE
REGION. GIVEN LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, HAVE
GONE WITH 90-100% CHANCE OF STRATIFORM RAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE DOWNEAST COAST ON FRIDAY, RESULTING IN A SLGT CHC OF
TSTMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
PW VALUES WITH THE SYSTEM WILL RISE TOWARD THE 95TH PERCENTILE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE
BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET BETWEEN 35-50KTS LOOKS TO MOVE
TWD THE COAST ON FRIDAY MORNING, DEPENDING ON TRACK OF SFC LOW. HAVE
NOT MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND FCST AS STILL SOME VARIATIONS IN THE
TRACK OF LOW, THUS LOW-LEVEL JET BUT EXPECT WINDS WILL NEED TO BE
TWEAKED IN THE COMING DAYS. IT/S LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT
HALLOWEEN WILL END UP BEING A BAGFUL OF TRICKS.
WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS WILL EXIST THRU THE WEEKEND OVER THE NORTH THRU
THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BELOW
NORMAL VALUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR/MVFR BECOMING MAINLY VFR NORTH WITH SCT-BKN MVFR
CIGS SOUTH. VCSH THIS EVENING WITH -SHRA AT BHB THIS EVENING.
OVERALL TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT IS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY 12Z
TOMORROW. N WINDS TONIGHT 5-15KT. TOMORROW VFR WITH N-NNE WINDS
10-15KT AND POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 20KT.
SHORT TERM:
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR. N 5KTS BECOMING SE 5KTS ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...IFR/LIFR IN RAINFALL, LOCALLY HEAVY AT
TIMES. ESE 5-15KTS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS. LLWS POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR DOWNEAST WITH MVFR/IFR
LINGERING OVER AROOSTOOK TERMINALS. S 5-15KTS BECOMING SW WITH
GUSTS 20-25KTS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OUT 25NM
FROM 11PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 2AM WEDNESDAY. INTRA-COASTAL
WATERS THE SCA WILL RUN FROM 5AM TO 5PM TUESDAY. N WINDS
INCREASING 15-20KT WITH GUSTS 25-30KT. SEAS GENERALLY 1-3FT
TONIGHT. N WINDS WILL SHIFT NE TOMORROW AFTERNOON REMAINING
GUSTY OVER THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO BETWEEN 2 AND 4FT
WITH THE LARGEST WAVES WELL OFFSHORE. NE WIND GUSTS WILL
GRADUALLY FALL BELOW SCA TOMORROW EVENING. SEA SURFACE WATER
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 51-54F RANGE FROM THE DOWNEAST COAST OUT
25NM AND EAST TO THE HAGUE LINE INCLUDING PENOBSCOT AND
PASSAMAQUODDY BAYS.
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THRU THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL GUST TO AOA 30KTS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
WITH SEAS INCREASING TO 6 TO 10 FT FRIDAY MORNING, REMAINING
ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE
WEEKEND.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ052.
NEAR TERM...JS
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...JS/21
MARINE...JS/21
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