236
FXUS61 KCAR 280949
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
549 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH
MID WEEK, WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THURSDAY, CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY, THEN
MOVE NORTH OF MAINE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED TO INCLUDED PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE, HAVE ADJUSTED FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.
ALSO SLIGHTLY INCREASED SEAS FOR TODAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE EXITS ACROSS THE MARITIMES TODAY, WITH
TROFFING EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THE TROFFING
PERSISTS INTO WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN CENTERED NORTH OF MAINE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE
SLOWLY BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY. PATCHY, MOSTLY RIVER
VALLEY, FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND
50 NORTH, TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S DOWNEAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH, TO THE
LOWER TO MID 30S DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH, TO THE MID 50S DOWNEAST.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL BRING A MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH TO
THE 30S DOWNEAST.
A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SUPPORT LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS LOW WILL INTENSIFY AND
TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS THURSDAY NIGHT
SPREADING A BAND OF RAIN INTO OUR REGION. AN OCCLUSION FROM THIS LOW
WILL EXTEND SOUTHEAST LINKING UP WITH HURRICANE MELISSA. THE
HURRICANE WILL TRACK AROUND A THOUSAND MILES OFFSHORE AND WILL NOT
DIRECTLY IMPACT OUR WEATHER. HOWEVER, OFFSHORE HURRICANES HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO INDIRECTLY AFFECT OUR WEATHER BY SUPPORTING UPPER
RIDGING AND ANTICYLONIC FLOW ALOFT WHICH, UP AGAINST THE CYCLONIC
FLOW OF THE MAINLAND TROUGH, COULD COMBINE TO ENHANCE DIVERGENCE
ALOFT, UPLIFT, AND RAINFALL.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES AND MOVES
ACROSS OUR AREA. PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES ON RAIN AMOUNTS ARE AROUND
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF ACROSS THE REGION
WITH LOCALIZED BANDS OVER TWO INCHES POSSIBLE. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF
TO SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY AS A DRY INTRUSION PULLS NORTH INTO THE
SYSTEM.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT CONSOLIDATING INTO
A VERY POWERFUL SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN MARITIMES. VERY STRONG
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AN
ISOLATED POWER OUTAGE OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONG WEST
WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS, MAINLY OVER THE
NORTH.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTH AS
LINGERING UPPER TROUGHINESS MOVES OVER THE AREA, AND PARTLY CLOUDY
DOWNEAST. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE, BUT WILL BE GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM THEIR PEAK FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A FEW SHOWERS
OF RAIN OR WET SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH INTO SUNDAY FROM
MOISTURE REMAINING POOLED IN THE UPPER TROUGH.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY. THE FLOW WILL
BECOME WEAK BY MONDAY WITH NO STRONG SUBSIDENCE OR INFUSION OF DRY
AIR TO CLEAR THE SKY. THEREFORE, A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY NORTH AND
A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY DOWNEAST WILL LIKELY PERSIST.
AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH ANY PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING THEN
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH UP TO AROUND
20 KNOTS TODAY. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT,
THEN AROUND 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM:
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS NORTH AND LIGHT NE
WINDS SOUTH.
THURSDAY...VFR, POSSIBLY LOWERING TO MVFR LATE ACROSS THE SOUTH.
LIGHT E WIND.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR, LOWERING TO IFR SOUTH DURING THE EVENING AND
IFR NORTH AROUND MIDNIGHT. INCREASING E WIND.
FRIDAY...IFR TO LIFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN. E WIND.
FRIDAY NIGHT...IFR, POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO MVFR SOUTH. W WIND
BECOMING STRONG AND GUSTY.
SATURDAY...VFR SOUTH. MVFR TO VFR NORTH. STRONG GUSTY W WIND.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: SLIGHTLY INCREASED SEAS FOR TODAY WITH THIS UPDATE.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON
FOR THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS AND THROUGH 2 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS LATER WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
SHORT TERM: A SCA IS LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT IN STRONG E WINDS,
POSSIBLY BUILDING TO A GALE IN STRONG GUSTY W WINDS FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD UP TO 9 FT FRIDAY AND 13 FT
SATURDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND WAVES COMBINING WITH SWELL FROM
HURRICANE MELISSA COULD RAISE THE RISK FOR SOME DANGEROUS ROGUE
WAVES FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ052.
NEAR TERM...CN
SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM...MB
AVIATION...CN/MB
MARINE...CN/MB
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