061
FXUS61 KCAR 282306
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
706 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH
MID WEEK, WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THURSDAY, CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY, THEN
MOVE NORTH OF MAINE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
650 PM UPDATE:
CLEAR SKIES NORTH OF BANGOR AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS ARE
RESULTING IN FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWERED LOW
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BY BLENDING IN THE NBM 50TH PERCENTILE AND
UPDATED HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO MATCH. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN CALM WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WASHINGTON COUNTY. AS THE SURFACE
LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE SHORE OF NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE
EASTWARD, CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AND OVER ALL CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW. SOME LIMITED FOG MAY FORM,
MAINLY IN THE NORTH, BUT THIS SHOULD BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY.
EXPECT THE GUSTY WINDS FROM THIS AFTERNOON TO DIE DOWN AROUND
SUNSET OR JUST AFTER. WINDS TOMORROW WILL BE LIGHTER DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AND CROSS THE STATE OF
MAINE. MODEL FORECASTS ARE BEGINNING TO COME TO A CONSENSUS ON
THE TRACK, WITH THE LOW CENTER MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS
THE STATE. THIS WILL BRING A BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
AREA BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL
TAP INTO THE SAME MOISTURE FEED CURRENTLY FUELING HURRICANE
MELISSA. ALTHOUGH MELISSA WILL BE FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO HAVE
MINIMAL IMPACTS ON NORTHERN MAINE, THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE RAIN RATES WITH THIS PARTICULAR STORM. QPF VALUES ARE
RANGING FROM 1.0 TO 2.5", WITH AROUND 1.5" THE MOST LIKELY FOR
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND 2.0" MORE LIKELY TOWARDS BANGOR AND THE
DOWNEAST COAST. SOME QUESTION REMAINS AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE
WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CAMS ARE INDICATING
A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET; HOWEVER CURRENTLY THINKING THAT
MIXING DOWN THESE WINDS IS SLIGHTLY LESS LIKELY THAN IN A COLD
AIR ADVECTION ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE, EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS, IN PARTICULAR ALONG THE COAST, BUT RIGHT NOW WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL (<40 MPH).
AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY, THE FIRST BAND OF PRECIP
WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD, BUT THEN BE FOLLOWED BY MORE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS DURING THIS PERIOD
WILL ALSO SWITCH TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE LOW.
ALTHOUGH THE LLJ ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED
EASTWARD, THE CONVECTIVE NATURE BEHIND THE LOW SHOULD PULL MORE
GUSTY WINDS TO THE SURFACE, AND WINDS/WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE WARM WITH THE FRONT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE FOR BRISK CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. TRICK OR TREATERS, AND
THEIR CHAPERONES, SHOULD PLAN ACCORDINGLY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
BY SATURDAY MORNING AFTER HAVING CONSIDERABLY DEEPENED.
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SHOW THE LOW REACHING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 960
AND 980 MB. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND
THE LOW IN COMBINATION WITH SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER-TROUGH IS LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGHOUT SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH, AND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME
SNOW SHOWERS MAY MIX IN SATURDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
COLD AIR IS BROUGHT IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE AREA MONDAY IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. SOME SIGNAL IN THE
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS FOR ANOTHER STORM SOMETIME MID NEXT WEEK BUT
TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO BE MORE DEFINITIVE AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
NEAR TERM:
VFR. POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT FOR
NORTHERN SITES BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
AT NORTHERN SITES. NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS AT BGR AND BHB WITH
GUSTS TO 15 KT DURING THE DAY.
SHORT TERM:
THURSDAY...VFR, POSSIBLY LOWERING TO MVFR LATE ACROSS THE SOUTH.
LIGHT E WIND.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR, LOWERING TO IFR SOUTH DURING THE EVENING AND
IFR NORTH AROUND MIDNIGHT. INCREASING E WIND.
FRIDAY...IFR TO LIFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN. E WIND, BECOMING
SW FOR SOUTHERN TERMINALS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...IFR, POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO MVFR SOUTH. W WIND
BECOMING STRONG AND GUSTY.
SATURDAY...VFR SOUTH. MVFR TO VFR NORTH. STRONG GUSTY W WIND.
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR SOUTH. MVFR TO VFR NORTH. DECREASING W
WIND.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS AROUND 4 TO 5
FEET CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER WATERS THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE WINDS OVERNIGHT, BUT A SECOND PERIOD OF
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
CURRENT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN FUTURE UPDATES. WINDS
AND SEAS HAVE ALREADY SUBSIDED OVER THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS AND
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. WINDS AND SEAS OVER
THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM: WINDS INCREASING THURSDAY, LIKELY REACHING SCA
CRITERIA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, LIKELY TO GALES. WINDS MAY
EXCEED GUSTS OF 40 KTS AND SEAS COULD REACH 11 TO 16 FT BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND WAVES COMBINING WITH SWELL
FROM HURRICANE MELISSA AS IT PASSES OFFSHORE COULD RAISE THE
RISK FOR SOME DANGEROUS ROGUE WAVES FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
NEAR TERM...LF/MWS
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM...SM
AVIATION...LF/MWS/LF
MARINE...LF/MWS/LF
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