950
FXUS61 KCAR 291057
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
657 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY, CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY, THEN
CONTINUE INTO EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR NORTH WILL MAINTAIN A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY. MEANWHILE, A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST WILL SUPPORT ONE
SURFACE LOW SLIDING WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND ANOTHER
LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES. THE INITIAL LOW SLIDING WELL TO
OUR SOUTH WILL PRODUCE SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS TODAY BRINGING A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE AREA WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL OVER THE SOUTH BUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS THE NORTH.
TONIGHT WILL TURN OUT PARTLY CLOUDY WITH THE LIGHT OF A HALF MOON
FILTERING TROUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS. THE COLDEST LOWS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS WITH 30S ELSEWHERE.
THURSDAY WILL BEGIN PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OVER
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY CLOUDY AFTERNOON.
SOME RAIN MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW APPROACHES.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
UPR LOW WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY EVENING WITH A
SLUG OF TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING PICKED UP FROM HURRICANE MELISSA,
LIKELY TO BE APPROACHING BERMUDA BY THIS TIME. MOST OF THE STEADY
RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE IN AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME
RIDGING STILL IN PLACE OVER ERN ZONES EARLY ON. BY 06Z FRIDAY, SFC
LOW WILL BE SITTING IN THE VICINITY OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH 30-40KT
LLJ BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO WRN MAINE BEFORE HEADING INTO CWA AROUND
09Z. ALTHOUGH WINDS ALOFT WILL BE STRONG STABLE LAYER IN WARM
ADVECTION WILL PREVENT MUCH MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. ONLY THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WILL SEE WINDS GUSTING TO 35 TO 40 MPH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
AS FOR THE RAIN PW VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 1.00 INCHES AFTER
MIDNIGHT OVER DOWNEAST AND SURGE NORTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
PW VALUES MAXIMIZED OVER DOWNEAST TOWARD DAYBREAK AND LIKELY IN THE
99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HEAVIEST RAIN LOOKS TO FALL
BETWEEN 09Z-15Z FRIDAY WITH 1-1.50 INCHES FORECAST OVER INTERIOR
DOWNEAST IN RFQ OF UPR LEVEL JET STREAK. TOTAL RAINFALL EXPECTED TO
BE BETWEEN 1.50-2.00 OVER CENTRAL AND SRN ZONES, HIGHEST OVER
INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS IN UPSLOPE AREAS
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. 1-1.75 INCHES EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN
AROOSTOOK, BACK INTO THE NORTH WOODS BY THE TIME DRY SLOT WORKS IN
FRIDAY EVENING.
BY 00Z SATURDAY, SFC LOW WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF NRN MAINE WITH
STRONGEST WINDS YET TO COME IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH EJECTION OF UPR LOW FRIDAY NIGHT WITH 00Z
GFS QUICKEST TO MOVE FEATURE INTO CANADA. NOT ONLY WILL THIS
DETERMINE PRECIP CHCS FRIDAY NIGHT BUT WILL ALSO DETERMINE TIMEFRAME
OF HIGHEST WINDS IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO GUST BY MIDNIGHT INCREASING TO NEAR 30-35 MPH BY DAYBREAK
ON SATURDAY. WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACRS THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT WITH DRY SLOT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH RESULTING IN SHOWERS
DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE REMAINS MAINLY ACRS THE NORTH SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AS TROUGHING LINGERS OVER ERN U.S. AND CANADA.
GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GFS SHOWING SFC
HIPRES OVER CWA INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHILE EC/CMC BRINGS QUICK SYSTEM
THRU THE AREA AT THE SAME TIME.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CANNOT RULE OUT MVFR CIGS
WITH BCFG FOG TOWARD 12Z THURSDAY. LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST TODAY.
SHORT TERM: THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR, DROPPING TO IFR/LIFR AFTER
MIDNIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN RAIN, LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES. E 5-
10KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS LATE.
FRIDAY...IFR/LIFR IN RAIN. E 5-15KTS IN THE MORNING BECOMING SSE
AFTERNOON SOUTH, NNE AFTERNOON NORTH.
FRIDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO MVFR DOWNEAST LATE, IFR NORTH. W 10-
20KTS, GUSTING TO 25-30KTS.
SATURDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR SOUTH, MVFR NORTH. W 10-20KTS, GUSTING
TO 30KTS.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR SOUTH. MVFR/VFR NORTH. NW 5-15KTS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: A SCA WILL REMAIN UP TODAY FOR NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25
KT. WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. EASTERLY WINDS
MAY INCREASE THURSDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT LATE IN THE DAY.
SHORT TERM: WINDS INCREASE FROM THE EAST THURSDAY EVENING TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS. THESE WINDS WILL BE AOB 35KTS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE INCREASE TO GALE FORCE FROM THE WSW FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY. EXPECT THAT WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH SATURDAY
EVENING, DROPPING BELOW SCA LEVELS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS INCREASE
ABOVE 5FT THURSDAY EVENING OVER THE OUTER WATERS, BUILDING TO NEAR
15 FEET SATURDAY MORNING. INTRACOASTAL ZONES WILL SEE WAVES BUILD TO
NEAR 8FT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE
MELISSA PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH MAY BRING INCREASING RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY WEEKEND.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050-
051.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ050>052.
NEAR TERM...MB/21
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...MB/21
MARINE...MB/21
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