026
FXUS61 KCAR 292351
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
751 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY, CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY, THEN
CONTINUE INTO EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
UPDATE...
ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS,
OTHERWISE THE CURRENT FORECAST STILL ON TRACK.
SEE UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
A 1024MB SURFACE HIGH REMAINS TO OUR NORTH OVER THE GASPE
PENINSULA AND DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST INTO THE GULF OF ST.
LAWRENCE. ELONGATED OPEN SHORTWAVE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR HIGH
CLOUDS TODAY WILL PUSH NE OVERNIGHT AS MID LEVEL WARM FRONT
LIFTS NE. MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTING NORTHWARD TONIGHT BUT SKIES
WILL TURN MOSTLY CLEAR OVER WESTERN ZONES AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY OVER EASTERN ZONES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL GO CALM
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK WITH DECOUPLING LIKE
IN WESTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S FOR PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AND FAR EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY WHERE
MID 30S ARE EXPECTED.
TOMORROW EXPECTING PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG TO START AND A FROSTY
MORNING IN MANY LOCATIONS. WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NE AT THE
SURFACE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MOISTURE ADVECTING IN ALOFT
AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS TURN DUE SOUTH AS THE 500MB TROF DEEPENS
AND TILTS NEGATIVELY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. WINDS WILL
TURN EASTERLY OVER MAINE AND INCREASE 5-10MPH. SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS THICKENING EARLY IN
THE MORNING AND GIVEN THE LOW SUN ANGLE AND INCREASING MOISTURE
UNLIKELY TO MIX OUT IN MOST SPOTS.
MODELS REMAIN SOLID ON TIMING/POSITION OF INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE DEEPENING A SURFACE LOW OVER PENNSYLVANIA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE 500MB TROF GOES NEGATIVE. EXPECTING
MUCH OF THE DAY TO BE DRY BUT DURING THE AFTERNOON POPS WILL
INCREASE TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE FROM SW TO NE BY SUNSET.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AFTERNOON TOP OUT AROUND 50F NORTH WITH
LOW TO MID 50S FROM DOVER-FOXCROFT TO DANFORTH AND POINTS SOUTH
TO THE COASTLINE.
TOMORROW NIGHT ECMWF, ECMWF-AIFS, GFS AND CANADIAN ALONG WITH
HI-RES GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING NORTH PWATS 200-300
PERCENT OF NORMAL INTO MAINE. PWATS IN THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE WILL
BE RATHER EFFICIENT COMBINED WITH INCREASED DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE
GOOD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA GETTING UNDERWAY IN
THE EVENING. 7-9PM START TIME IN BANGOR, 8-10PM START TIME IN
MILLINOCKET, 9-10PM START TIME IN CARIBOU. RAIN WILL BECOME
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS NE INTO
NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NEAR THE WESTERN MAINE/QUEBEC BORDER BY
DAYBREAK. THE 925MB LLJ WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT BUT NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT MIXING DUE TO INVERSION STABILITY BUT
EXPECTING SOME GUSTY WINDS 20-30MPH ESPECIALLY FROM THE
LONGFELLOW MTNS SOUTH AND EAST TO THE COASTLINE WITH STRONGEST
WINDS AT THE SHORELINE. ALTHOUGH NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT ISSUES, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME TREE LIMB DAMAGE
RESULTING IN HIGHLY LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES. OTHERWISE EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MOST WITH
SOME UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH WOODS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
FRIDAY: THE OCCLUSION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD START
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE DAY
ARE EXPECTED IN THE MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN BORDER.
THIS SHOULD BRING RAINFALL AMOUNT TOTALS INTO THE 1.5-2 INCH
RANGE. SOME AREAS IN THE SOUTH COULD SEE THE HIGHER END DUE TO
TERRAIN. RAINFALL COULD CAUSE SOME URBAN FLOODING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. E WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME BREEZY IN THE MORNING, THEN
DECREASE SLIGHTLY IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN INCREASE AGAIN
AS WNW WINDS IN THE EVENING AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW EXITS.
TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S.
FRIDAY NIGHT: AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE NE, MOISTURE WILL WRAP
AROUND THE CENTER, KEEPING RAIN IN THE REGION FOR THE NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. WNW WINDS SHOULD BECOME GUSTY AGAIN
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. RAIN SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD
BE IN THE 40S.
SATURDAY: THE EXITING LOW AND THE APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN PRESSURE GRADIENTS, CAUSING WNW WINDS TO
BECOME GUSTY AGAIN WITH UP TO 35 MPH WINDS. THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE THE SATURATED SOIL AND GUSTY WINDS CAUSING TREES TO
FALL. TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS
UNTIL MONDAY. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, A SURFACE TROF SHOULD BRING
THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN TO THE AREA, THOUGH MODELS DISAGREE ON
THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF RAIN WITH THE TROF. BY TUESDAY NIGHT,
THE MODELS BECOME INCONSISTENT WITH THE EXITING TROF AND
APPROACHING RIDGE. AS OF THIS UPDATE, THE MODELS ARE PICKING UP
ON THE NEXT SYSTEM TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS SHOULD BE
NEAR NORMAL.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
NEAR TERM:
TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS THIS
EVENING, THEN MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 08Z,
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACT TIMING DUE TO MODEL
UNCERTAINTIES. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE GOING CALM.
TOMORROW...MVFR CIGS. BECOMING VFR FOR PQI, CAR AND FVE IN THE
AM. E-SE WINDS 5-10KT BECOMING 10-15KT LATE AFTERNOON AT
SOUTHERN TERMS.
TOMORROW NIGHT...MVFR CIGS BECOMING IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBY DUE TO RA
LIKELY. E-SE WINDS 10-15KT NORTH TERMS AND 10-15KT WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25KT SOUTH TERMS. LLWS POSSIBLE AT BHB.
SHORT TERM: FRIDAY...IFR/LIFR IN RAIN. E WINDS 5-15KTS IN THE
MORNING BECOMING SSE AFTERNOON SOUTH, NNE AFTERNOON NORTH.
FRIDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO MVFR DOWNEAST LATE, IFR NORTH. W
WINDS 10- 20KTS, GUSTING TO 25-30KTS.
SATURDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR SOUTH, MVFR NORTH. W WINDS
10-20KTS, GUSTING TO 30KTS.
SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR SOUTH. MVFR/VFR NORTH. NW WINDS
5-15KTS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 6PM FRIDAY. NE WINDS THIS EVENING WILL
SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA AND SEAS SUBSIDE BETWEEN 2-4FT THIS
EVENING. TOMORROW MORNING SEAS WILL BUILD 4-5FT AND LAST THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT E AND BEGIN INCREASING LATE
AFTERNOON. WE WANT TO AVOID MIX MESSAGING AND CONFUSION OF
DROPPING AN SCA AND QUICKLY HOISTING ANOTHER ONE TONIGHT FOR
TOMORROW. THEREFORE, HAVE EXTENDED THE ONGOING ONE TO COVER THE
RETURN TO SCA CONDITIONS TOMORROW. TOMORROW NIGHT THE E WINDS
RAMP UP AND GUSTING TO 30KT AS SEAS BUILD TO 4-7FT. SCA FOR THE
INTRA-COASTAL WATERS BEGINS AT 8PM EDT FOR WINDS AND SEAS. RAIN
WILL DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT REDUCING
VSBY AT TIMES.
SHORT TERM: WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. SEAS INCREASING TO
10-15 FT DURING THIS PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE TO SCA
LEVELS BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND BELOW SCA LEVEL BY SUNDAY MORNING.
THEN REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ050>052.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THURSDAY TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
ANZ052.
NEAR TERM...TWD/JS
SHORT TERM...ARL
LONG TERM...ARL
AVIATION...TWD/JS/ARL
MARINE...TWD/JS/ARL
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