463
FXUS61 KCAR 300904
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
157 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE MARITIMES TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH TONIGHT...CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY...THEN
CONTINUE INTO EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY THEN SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION
MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF INTO THE MARITIMES TODAY AS CLOUDS
INCREASE AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE APPALACHIANS.
RAIN WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA AHEAD
OF THE LOW OVERNIGHT. BY LATE TONIGHT A CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE WILL
EXTEND FROM THE SURFACE LOW OVER NEW YORK STATE SOUTHEAST TO
HURRICANE MELISSA WHICH WILL BE PASSING AROUND 800 MILES OFFSHORE.
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN OFF THE HURRICANE BY THE STRONG
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SYSTEM AND SOME
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS A FUNCTION OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
HURRICANE PUSHING UP AGAINST THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. THIS MAY ENHANCE RAIN JUST A BIT, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST.
BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND AN EASTERLY WIND WILL
HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. RAIN MAY TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS
AND SOME DRIZZLE DOWNEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTH AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTH. INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE UP ACROSS NEW BRUNSWICK FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME RAIN
CONTINUING OVER THE NORTH BUT DIMINISHING DOWNEAST. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH A BIT AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
SFC LOW WILL BE MOVING THRU NRN MAINE FRIDAY EVENING WITH UPR LOW
STILL JUST BACK TO OUR WEST. SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT
WITH WINDS ALOFT INCREASING AS IT DOES SO. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GUST
TO 20-25 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM THE W-NW. DEEPER MIXING ACROSS THE
NORTH WILL PROMOTE GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25-30MPH IN THE MORNING. DURING
THE AFTERNOON NORTHERN AREAS LOOK TO MIX UP TOWARD H8 WITH GUSTS IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN APPROACHING 35MPH.
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL AND NRN SXNS FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY SLOT EFFECTIVELY SHUTTING OFF PRECIP OVER DOWNEAST
AND THE BANGOR REGION. BY 12Z LOW WILL BE IN THE MARITIMES WITH COLD
AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTH. TEMPS WILL BE
HARD-PRESSED TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S NORTH OF BANGOR. PRETTY RAW AND
BLUSTERY DAY EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT PRECIP SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN WITH NW WINDS
BEGINNING TO RELAX. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE U20S/NR 30 ACRS THE
NORTH WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY MIXING IN OVER THE
NORTHWEST.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
THOUGH UPR LVL FLOW REMAINS ZONAL WITH SLGT CHC FOR PRECIP ACRS THE
NORTH. H5 LOW DIGGING INTO THE UPR MIDWEST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND WILL
EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF OVER THE TN VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS LOOKS TO
RESULT IN NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACRS THE CWA EARLY NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO
FAST MOVING SYSTEMS ZIPPING THROUGH. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT WITH QUICK-MOVING
UPR TROF DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE
BELOW NORMAL. MORE INTERESTING SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE TOWARD THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
NEAR TERM:
CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR SOUTH TODAY AND VFR TO MVFR ACROSS
THE NORTH. CONDITIONS DROP TO IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT
AND REMAIN IFR TO LIFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN ON FRIDAY. WINDS
LIGHT SE TODAY, INCREASING FROM THE E TONIGHT, THEN NE OVER THE
NORTH, AND E BECOMING SW OVER THE SOUTH, ON FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM:
FRIDAY NIGHT...IFR NORTH WITH IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR SOUTH LATE. W 5-
15KTS GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS LATE.
SATURDAY...MVFR NORTH, VFR DOWNEAST. NW 10-20KTS GUSTING TO 30KTS.
SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR/VFR NORTH. VFR DOWNEAST. NW 5-15KTS.
SUNDAY-MONDAY...MVFR/VFR NORTH. VFR DOWNEAST. W 5-10KTS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT, BECOMING SW 5-10KTS MONDAY.
MARINE
NEAR TERM:
WINDS WILL BE SCA TODAY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS, INCREASING TO
SCA EVERYWHERE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, THEN GALE FRIDAY NIGHT.
SEAS BUILDING UP TO 5 FT TODAY, 9 FT TONIGHT, THEN 10 FT ON
FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM: WESTERLY GALE FORCE WINDS OVER ALL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST AND DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS UNTIL
INCREASING TOWARD MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS VERY LATE ON MONDAY. SEAS
WILL RAMP UP IN SOUTHERLY SWELL TO NEAR 15 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS
SATURDAY MORNING AND BETWEEN 5 TO 9 FEET OVER THE INTRACOASTALS.
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON SATURDAY BEFORE DROPPING BELOW SCA
LEVELS SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5FT THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ050>052.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
FOR ANZ052.
NEAR TERM...MB
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...MB/21
MARINE...MB/21
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