290
FXUS61 KCAR 311302
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
902 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THEN CONTINUE
INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY THEN CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
900AM UPDATE: RADAR SCANS AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE CENTER
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FASTER AND FURTHER WEST THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE DRY SLOT OF THE SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO
SW DOWNEAST FASTER AS WELL. ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO SHOW THIS.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON ANY OTHER ADJUSTMENTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH ACROSS WESTERN MAINE TODAY
LIFTING A BAND OF RAIN NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. AN OCCLUSION
WILL EXTEND SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW TO HURRICANE MELISSA TRACKING
AROUND 700 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OUR COAST. THE RAIN WILL LIFT
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING, POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES.
HOWEVER, WITH THE LOW TRACKING UP TO OUR WEST, A DRY SURGE MAY
BE QUICK TO FOLLOW ENDING THE STEADY RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. STRONG
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND INTERMITTENT LIGHTER RAIN AND SHOWERS
IN THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL FOLLOW THE LOW OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH GUSTY WINDS
SETTING IN.
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTH ACROSS THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE
SATURDAY MORNING AND ON INTO LABRADOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. A TIGHT
GRADIENT AND WINDS ALIGNING FROM SURFACE TO ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
STRONG GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS SATURDAY WITH THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY DOWNEAST WHILE THE NORTH REMAINS MOSTLY CLOUDY.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
CLOSED LOW WILL EJECT OUT OF THE MARITIMES AND INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC SATURDAY EVENING. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER
THE NORTH DURING THE EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN
THE EVENING. BY THE TIME TEMPS DROP COLD ENOUGH TO CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS, MOISTURE SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN SO CANNOT RULE OUT
A FEW SNOWFLAKES OVER THE ST. JOHN VALLEY BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS
LIKELY TO BE NON-EXISTENT. STRATOCU LIKELY TO LINGER OVER THE
NORTH WITH CLEARING SKIES FOR DOWNEAST.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINNING TO BUILD IN, MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT.
LINGERING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT ACRS THE NORTH TO BRING
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACRS THE NORTH ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH H8 TEMPS AROUND -5C. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LWR 40S NORTH AND UPR 40S SOUTH, WITH MINS
OVERNIGHT IN THE 20S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED THRU THE LONG TERM, WHICH LOOKS TO BE
SHAPING UP TO BE FAIRLY ACTIVE. S/WV RIDGE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AHEAD
OF TROF DIGGING IN FROM HUDSON BAY. STRATIFORM RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE IN
FM THE WEST MONDAY EVENING, THOUGH NOT SURE HOW MUCH RAIN WE WILL BE
ABLE TO SEE OUT OF THIS SYSTEM. SFC LOW OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
MAY BE ABLE TO IMPEDE MOISTURE INTO NRN STREAM SYSTEM CROSSING OUR
AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
AS TROF LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT THAT PRECIP
WILL WIND DOWN LATE AS SHOWERS BUT WITH COLD AIR MOVING IN TUESDAY
NIGHT, CANNOT RULE OUT ANOTHER EVENT ENDING AS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTH.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BRIEFLY MOVES IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH YET ANOTHER
SYSTEM QUICKLY FOLLOWING. UPR LVL DISTURBANCE DIGS INTO THE UPR
MIDWEST AND QUICKLY TRACKS TWD THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MED RANGE
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE INDICATES DEEPENING SFC LOW CROSSING THE STATE
ON THURSDAY, WHILE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE ALL OVER THE BOARD. VERY
LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST TWD THE END OF NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER
THINGS ARE LOOKING VERY INTERESTING AS OF NOW.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
NEAR TERM:
IFR CONDITIONS, POSSIBLY LOWERING TO LIFR AT TIMES ACROSS THE
SOUTH, ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR OVER
THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR AT 2K FT IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR OVER THE
SOUTH SATURDAY MORNING AND VFR TO MVFR OVER THE NORTH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS SOUTHERLY TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EASTERLY
TODAY OVER THE NORTH BECOMING WESTERLY, STRONG AND GUSTY TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM:
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MAY SEE MVFR CIGS OCNLY
AT NORTHERN AROOSTOOK TERMINALS. WNW 5-15KTS.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR. WSW 5-10KTS.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR, IMPROVING AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS
LATE TUESDAY. S 5-10KTS, BECOMING WNW 5-15KTS TUESDAY.
MARINE
NEAR TERM:
A GALE WARNING WILL BE UP TODAY FOR STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
THEN CONTINUING TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 10 FT TODAY, 14 FT TONIGHT
THEN BACK DOWN TO 10 FT ON SATURDAY. INTERFERENCE BETWEEN SWELL
FROM HURRICANE MELISSA COMING IN FORM THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST AND
THE WIND WAVE COMING FROM A SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY DIRECTION
MAY RESULT IN SOME DANGEROUS ROGUE WAVES TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM: WINDS LIKELY TO BE ON THE DECREASE TOWARD SCA CONDITIONS
SATURDAY EVENING, DROPPING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ON INTRACOASTAL ZONES
EARLY AND THE OUTER WATERS BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN ELEVATED
OVER THE OUTER WATERS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS OVER ALL
WATERS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING BEFORE
GRADUALLY INCREASING OVER THE OUTER WATERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
OVER ALL WATERS TUESDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
NEAR TERM...MB/ARL
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...MB/ARL/21
MARINE...MB/ARL/21
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page