881
FXUS61 KCAR 311833
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
233 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY
THEN CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
TO OUR NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
THE LARGE OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO
THE WEST OF THE STATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THIS MORE
WESTERLY TRACK HAS BROUGHT THE DRY SLOT IN MUCH SOONER THAN
MODELS WERE ORIGINALLY PREDICTING. IN ADDITION, CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS BEHIND THE DRY SLOT HAVE SLOWED DOWN. WITH THE DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO THE LOWER LEVELS DUE TO THE MIXING OF THE LLJ,
THERE WILL BE SOME BRIEF CLEARING OF CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND
INTO TONIGHT. BY TONIGHT, ONCE THE CENTER OF THE LOW MOVES TO
THE NORTH, THE DRY SLOT WILL START TO EXIT THE REGION. THE HIGH
RES MODELS SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE,
WITH THE MAJORITY MOVING THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LLJ WILL
INCREASE WITH GUSTY WSW WINDS BRINGING UP TO 35 MPH GUST ACROSS
THE REGION. HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS COULD SEE UP TO 45 MPH GUSTS.
THE WELL MIXED BOUNDARY WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW 40S FOR THE
NIGHT. BY SATURDAY, ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED
AND MAINLY TO THE NORTH. GUSTY W WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN
ISSUE FOR THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION. TEMPS
BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTH AND
LOW 50S IN THE SOUTH. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN CAUSING WINDS TO DECREASE AND CLOUDS STARTING TO CLEAR
OUT. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE NORTH. TEMPS WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE LOW 30S WITH UPPER 20S IN THE NORTH WOODS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, LEADING TO A RETURN OF DRY WEATHER
AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL DECREASE ENOUGH
SUCH THAT SUNDAY NIGHT COULD FEATURE SOME SURFACE DECOUPLING
ANYWHERE WHICH BECOMES CLEAR ENOUGH TO EFFICIENTLY RADIATE OUT.
SHOULD THIS BE THE CASE, LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT MAY FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S. IF SKIES REMAIN OVERCAST, THESE LOWS
MAY REMAIN CLOSER TO 30 OVERNIGHT. AFTER RECENT RAINFALL WHICH
ADDED TO SURFACE MOISTURE, THIS SURFACE DECOUPLING MAY AID IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS WELL.
AS THE RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH RETURN
FLOW INTO MONDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO AROUND AVERAGE
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND
REGION. THE FIRST TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PUSH THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MOST NOTABLE WITH THIS TROUGH IS THE
LIKELIHOOD OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 925MB LLJ, WHICH COULD LEAD
TO GUSTY SURFACE WINDS INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA,
THOUGH THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL BE QUICK MOVING AND LIGHT RAIN
WILL BE SHORT LIVED, LEADING TO LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL AND NOT MUCH HELP IN REMEDYING THE ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS.
AFTER ANOTHER NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY, THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE RECENT TREND
ACROSS GFS AND CMC RUNS HAS BEEN FOR A SOUTHERN SHIFT IN THE
TRACK OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, AND A TREND SO FAR SOUTH THAT
PRECIP MAY ENTIRELY MISS OUR FORECAST AREA. WITH THE SOUTHERN
TRACK, THE 540DAM THICKNESS LINE WILL ALSO PLUNGE SOUTH, AND
LEAD TO A COLD SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WHERE THE NORTH MAY
STRUGGLE TO ESCAPE THE 30S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, IF
THIS LOW TAKES THE MORE NORTHERN TREND THAT THE 00Z ECMWF
HIGHLIGHTED, THE 540DAM LINE WILL ALSO BE PULLED FURTHER NORTH
AS THE TROUGH IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED, AND PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS
IN THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY FALL AS RAIN. THERE STILL MAY
BE SOME LIGHT EARLY SEASON SNOWFALL AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE
NORTH WOODS WITH THIS EVENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SHOULD IT
PRECIPITATE AT ALL, BUT OTHERWISE THERE REMAIN TWO SOLUTIONS:
COLD AND DRY OR COOL AND RAIN.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
NEAR TERM: AROOSTOOK TERMINAL: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY DUE TO LOW CIGS. BRIEF LOWERING OF VSBY TONIGHT,
THEN IMPROVING BY SATURDAY MORNING. BY LATE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT, CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR. TONIGHT,
SW WINDS BECOME WNW AFTER MIDNIGHT 15-20 KTS. SATURDAY, W WINDS
15-20KTS. SATURDAY NIGHT, W WINDS 5-10 KTS.
DOWNEAST TERMINAL: GENERALLY IN AND OUT OF VFR AND MVFR TONIGHT.
THEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. WSW WINDS TONIGHT 15-20 KTS. SATURDAY, W WINDS 15-20KTS.
SATURDAY NIGHT, W WINDS 5-10 KTS.
SHORT TERM:
SUN: BKN/SCT MVFR AT NORTHERN TERMINALS, VFR AT SOUTHERN
TERMINALS. WNW 5 TO 10 KTS GUSTING TO 20 KTS.
SUN NIGHT: VFR ACROSS MOST TERMINALS, WITH BRIEF IFR VIS IN FG
POSSIBLE. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
MON: VFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. WINDS SSW AT 5 TO 10 KTS GUSTING
UP TO 20 KTS.
MON NIGHT - TUES: MVFR/IFR IN RAIN SHOWERS, IMPROVING AT
SOUTHERN TERMINALS LATE TUESDAY. S WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS OVERNIGHT
SHIFTING NW AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KTS TUES, WITH GUSTS 25
TO 30 KTS.
TUES NIGHT - WED: CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. W
WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN AFFECT TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. SEAS 7-15 FT. BY SATURDAY NIGHT, WINDS WILL DECREASE
TO SCA LEVELS.
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, BEFORE THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND LEADS TO
WINDS RAMPING UP TOWARDS GALE FORCE INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY, AND
SEAS INCREASING TOWARDS 5 TO 7 FT.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
NEAR TERM...ARL
SHORT TERM...AES
LONG TERM...AES
AVIATION...ARL/AES
MARINE...ARL/AES
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