858
FXUS61 KCAR 010615
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
215 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MARITIMES
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
AND SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA MONDAY. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER TROUGH WILL RAPIDLY EXIT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE AND NEWFOUNDLAND TODAY. A
TIGHT GRADIENT BEHIND THE STORM WILL BRING STRONG GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS. NORTHERN AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS WHILE DOWNEAST WILL TURN OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY IN
DOWNSLOPING.
THE SKY WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE NORTH AND MOSTLY CLEAR
DOWNEAST TONIGHT WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS THE LOW
CONTINUES AWAY. IT WILL BECOME MUCH COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE 20S OVER
THE NORTHWEST AND NEAR FREEZING ELSEWHERE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL BRING A SUNNY DAY
DOWNEAST ON SUNDAY. A BIT OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE OVER THE NORTH WILL
BRING A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY ACROSS THE NORTH. WINDS WILL BE MUCH
LIGHTER SUNDAY AS THE HIGH NEARS THE REGION.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CRESTING OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS
HIPRES SLIDES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES OVER SRN AREAS EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP WITH PATCHY
RIVER VALLEY FOG EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH. WINDS BACK AROUND TO
THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM CANADA.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY HEADING TWD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL TRACK THROUGH CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND. BY 12Z MONDAY SFC
LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER HUDSON BAY. RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER
MOST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AS MOISTURE APPROACHES. BECAUSE OF
THIS HAVE SLOWED DOWN ARRIVAL OF POPS ACRS THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH WITH LIKELY POPS NOT ARRIVING UNTIL THE EVENING
HOURS. WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, TEMPS WILL
CLIMB TO NEAR AND/OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MAXES.
FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND 0.10 INCHES. WINDS ALOFT WILL
BEGIN INCREASING TWD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH GUSTS INCREASING TWD
20MPH LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WNW WINDS WILL GUST DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL
WINDS AND PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING WITH SFC LOW DEEPENING OVER
THE MARITIMES AND HIPRES BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
WINDS REMAIN STRONG DURING THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE LIGHTENING UP ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE ALL OVER THE BOARD FOR THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE MIDWEST, LEADING TO CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY
IN SOLUTIONS.
00Z GFS, CMC AND ECMWF AI MODELS BRINGING LATE WEEK STORM SOUTH OF
THE AREA. 00Z EC HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH AND WEAKER THAN
IT/S PRIOR RUN SO WILL CONTINUE TO CAP POPS AT CHANCE AND LOWER POPS
OVER NRN AREAS. AS MENTIONED BY DAY SHIFT EITHER SYSTEM WILL MISS
CWA ENTIRELY TO THE SOUTH OR TEMPS WILL WARM ENUF AHEAD OF EC
SOLUTION WITH A COLD RAIN EXPECTED AND BY THE TIME COLD AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND IT, PRECIP WILL END AS A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW OVER THE
NORTHWEST. FOR ALL THE SNOW LOVERS OUT THERE, YOU/LL LIKELY HAVE TO
WAIT A LITTLE BIT LONGER! HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE IN THE
WEEK.
AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
NEAR TERM:
MVFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTH AND VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TODAY. STRONG GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20
KT GUSTING TO 30 KT. MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS NORTH AND VFR
CONDITIONS SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH WEST WINDS 10 TO 15
KT GUSTING TO 20 KT. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE AREA SUNDAY.
WEST WINDS 10 KT GUSTING TO 15 KT.
SHORT TERM:
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR, THOUGH MAY SEE BRIEF IFR VSBYS IN FOG LATE.
SSW 5KTS.
MONDAY...VFR. S 5-15KTS.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN SHOWERS AND LOW CIGS.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR LATE DOWNEAST TERMINALS. SSW 5-15KTS
BECOMING W 10-20KTS GUSTING TO 25-30KTS ON TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. W 5-15KTS GUSTING TO 20-25
KTS ON WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
NEAR TERM:
A GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOR STRONG GUSTY W WINDS.
SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO SCA TONIGHT THEN BELOW
SCA ON SUNDAY. SEA SUBSIDING TO 6 FT LATE TONIGHT THEN 4 FT ON
SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
MONDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING TO AOA SCA MONDAY EVENING. GALE
FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS
DIMINISH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 5FT LATE
MONDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.
NEAR TERM...MB
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...MB/21
MARINE...MB/21
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