933
FXUS61 KCAR 011841
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
241 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MARITIMES
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
AND SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA MONDAY. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH ON THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
THE LARGE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AS
THE LOW PRESSURE EXITS. FOR TONIGHT, HIGH RES MODELS SHOW SOME
MOISTURE STILL UP NORTH DUE TO THE REMAINING VORT MAX EXITING
THE AREA. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD COMPLETE LEAVE THE REGION BY
MIDNIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM EXITS, W WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW 30S. BY SUNDAY,
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND BRINGING CLEARER
SKIES AND CALMING WINDS. THE COOLER AND DRIER W WINDS WILL BRING
TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT, BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE BULK OF ANY RAIN THAT FALLS WILL LIKELY FALL
LATE MONDAY NIGHT, THOUGH RAIN TOTALS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
AND NOT MAKE MUCH OF A DENT IN THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
THIS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL ALSO LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
925MB LLJ ON THE BACK SIDE, CONTRIBUTING TO GUSTY WINDS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO TREND SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW, THOUGH
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE STABILIZED SOME AFTER A RAPID JUMP SOUTH ON
PREVIOUS RUNS. CURRENT CONSENSUS LEADS TO THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP BEING ACROSS DOWNEAST, THOUGH THE NORTH MAY REMAIN DRY IN
THIS PATTERN. THAT SAID, THE ECMWF HAS HELD ONTO A MORE CENTRAL
TRACK FOR THIS LOW, WHICH WOULD BRING MORE PRECIP INTO THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL. THIS RUN OF THE
ECMWF ALSO DIVES SOUTH ENOUGH FOR 540DAM THICKNESS LINE TO PULL
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR THE NORTH TO SEE SOME SNOWFALL. BUT
SOLUTIONS ALSO STILL EXIST THAT THE THICKNESSES ARE NOT QUITE
LOW ENOUGH FOR A CHANGE IN PRECIP TYPE, AND THAT THE NORTH COULD
ALSO JUST SEE A COLD RAIN WITH THIS EVENT. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT MAY ALSO EXIST WITH THIS STORM AND A RETURN TO GUSTY
WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN THIS ACTIVE PATTERN, YET
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD APPROACH FROM THE WEST INTO
THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
NEAR TERM: AROOSTOOK TERMINALS: GENERALLY IN AND OUT OF
MVFR/VFR THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT, VFR
CONDITIONS. WNW WINDS 10-15 KTS EARLY TONIGHT, THEN 5-10 KTS FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SUNDAY, W WINDS 5-10 KTS. SUNDAY NIGHT,
LIGHT SW WINDS.
DOWNEAST TERMINALS: VFR CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT, SUNDAY, AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. WNW WINDS 10-15 KTS EARLY TONIGHT, THEN 5-10 KTS
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SUNDAY, W WINDS 5-10 KTS. SUNDAY
NIGHT, LIGHT SW WINDS.
SHORT TERM:
MON: VFR, WITH FALLING CIGS TOWARDS MVFR LATE. S WINDS 5 TO 10
KTS.
MON NIGHT - TUES: MVFR/IFR IN RAIN SHOWERS AND LOW CIGS.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR LATE AT DOWNEAST TERMINALS. W WINDS 10
TO 20 KTS GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS.
TUES NIGHT - WED: MAINLY VFR. W WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS GUSTING TO
20 KTS.
WED NIGHT - THURS: DECREASING CIGS TO MVFR/IFR. POSSIBLE SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE NORTH WED NIGHT. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO NW 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD
DECREASE TO SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW
SCA CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY MORNING AND REMAIN FOR THE REST OF
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TOWARDS HIGH-END SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MONDAY, LIFTING TO GUSTS 25 TO 30 KTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. HIGHER GUSTS TOWARDS
GALE STRENGTH MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON
THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SEAS
WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 7 FT THROUGH THIS TIME. WINDS AND SEAS
THEN IMPROVE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.
NEAR TERM...ARL
SHORT TERM...AES
LONG TERM...AES
AVIATION...ARL/AES
MARINE...ARL/AES
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