720
FXUS61 KCAR 012342
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
742 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MARITIMES
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY AND SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA MONDAY. AN OCCLUDED
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH
ON THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
UPDATED...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND EARLY WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT. AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER AND PERHAPS EVEN AN ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. LOWS
OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE
NORTH AND LOWER 30S FOR THE BANGOR REGION AND DOWNEAST.
SEE UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS BELOW.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
BY SUNDAY, THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING CLEARER SKIES AND CALMING WINDS. THE COOLER AND DRIER W
WINDS WILL BRING TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT, BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE BULK OF ANY RAIN THAT FALLS WILL LIKELY FALL
LATE MONDAY NIGHT, THOUGH RAIN TOTALS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
AND NOT MAKE MUCH OF A DENT IN THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
THIS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL ALSO LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
925MB LLJ ON THE BACK SIDE, CONTRIBUTING TO GUSTY WINDS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO TREND SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW, THOUGH
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE STABILIZED SOME AFTER A RAPID JUMP SOUTH ON
PREVIOUS RUNS. CURRENT CONSENSUS LEADS TO THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP BEING ACROSS DOWNEAST, THOUGH THE NORTH MAY REMAIN DRY IN
THIS PATTERN. THAT SAID, THE ECMWF HAS HELD ONTO A MORE CENTRAL
TRACK FOR THIS LOW, WHICH WOULD BRING MORE PRECIP INTO THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL. THIS RUN OF THE
ECMWF ALSO DIVES SOUTH ENOUGH FOR 540DAM THICKNESS LINE TO PULL
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR THE NORTH TO SEE SOME SNOWFALL. BUT
SOLUTIONS ALSO STILL EXIST THAT THE THICKNESSES ARE NOT QUITE
LOW ENOUGH FOR A CHANGE IN PRECIP TYPE, AND THAT THE NORTH COULD
ALSO JUST SEE A COLD RAIN WITH THIS EVENT. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT MAY ALSO EXIST WITH THIS STORM AND A RETURN TO GUSTY
WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN THIS ACTIVE PATTERN, YET
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD APPROACH FROM THE WEST INTO
THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
NEAR TERM:
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. VFR WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL FOR KBGR/KBHB BUT OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AT THE AROOSTOOK COUNTY TERMINALS,
ESPECIALLY KFVE. GUSTY W WIND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER
TONIGHT.
MAINLY VFR ALL TERMINALS SUNDAY, EXCEPT THERE COULD BE SOME
EARLY MORNING MVFR CIGS AT THE AROOSTOOK COUNTY TERMINALS. W
WIND 10 TO 15 KT.
OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY NIGHT IS VFR. LIGHT SW WIND.
SHORT TERM:
MON: VFR, WITH FALLING CIGS TOWARDS MVFR LATE. S WINDS 5 TO 10
KTS.
MON NIGHT - TUES: MVFR/IFR IN RAIN SHOWERS AND LOW CIGS.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR LATE AT DOWNEAST TERMINALS. W WINDS 10
TO 20 KTS GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS.
TUES NIGHT - WED: MAINLY VFR. W WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS GUSTING TO
20 KTS.
WED NIGHT - THURS: DECREASING CIGS TO MVFR/IFR. POSSIBLE SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE NORTH WED NIGHT. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO NW 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
AND THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE MARINE WATERS. THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW GUSTS
TO AROUND 35 KT THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SEAS ON THE OUTERWATERS WILL
RANGE FROM 8 TO 11 FT EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 6
FT BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TOWARDS HIGH-END SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MONDAY, LIFTING TO GUSTS 25 TO 30 KTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. HIGHER GUSTS TOWARDS
GALE STRENGTH MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON
THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SEAS
WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 7 FT THROUGH THIS TIME. WINDS AND SEAS
THEN IMPROVE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
NEAR TERM...TWD/ARL
SHORT TERM...AES
LONG TERM...AES
AVIATION...TWD/ARL/AES
MARINE...TWD/ARL/AES
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